While Chris Getz isn't one for overstating in multiple senses of the word, his advertising of the 2026 White Sox falls in line with the PECOTA projection, as both are predicting a modest improvement that leaves them well short of contention.
Baseball Prospectus' initial projection released on Tuesday has the White Sox in line for a 69-93 record, which is better than the 61-101 record PECOTA projected in 2025. That's still easily the AL Central's worst projection ...
- Royals, 84-78 (rounding down)
- Tigers, 84-78 (rounding up)
- Twins, 79-83
- Guardians, 76-86
- White Sox, 69-93
... but if you're looking for a silver of hope, the blob graph capturing the results of 1,000 simulations that accompanies the standings shows a literal sliver of hope:
The 2025 PECOTA projections did not foresee any possibility of the White Sox finishing above .500, topping out at 78 wins. This time around, there's a front edge that carries past 81 wins and beyond, which is how the White Sox are given the faintest chance of a postseason appearance. It's only a 1.5 percent chance, but it's better than 0.0 percent, which is probably the gravest insult a projection system can issue.
What passes for optimism comes with a catch, as this picture of the White Sox offense is reliant on Munetaka Murakami providing an above-average bat by the end of the season, and the upper-echelon seasons likely involve him earning down-ballot MVP support. PECOTA has him at .233/.348/.487 with 34 homers, a 14 percent walk rate and a 33.8 percent strikeout rate. That makes him the White Sox's most valuable position player at 3.4 WARP, but that seems like a very unlikely balance to strike, especially in an MLB debut season.
The counterpoint is that PECOTA isn't buying Colson Montgomery. His 50th-percentile projection regresses him back to .217/.291/.388, with the same amount of homers (21) that he hit in 2025, but in twice the playing time (587 PA, compared to 284). And maybe that happens, but if it's a slightly more bearish outlook than Montgomery's most recent results might lead you to believe, it still cancels out what could be a too-neat translation of Murakami's NPB production, so the White Sox's PECOTA record and run differential passes the initial smell test.
From there, it's safe to say that, in practice, almost every road that leads to the White Sox overachieving a 69-93 record by a tier goes through Montgomery, and getting above .500 involves both him and Murakami going off. The White Sox might have higher hopes for themselves, but actualizing them involves unprecedented production for a whole host of Sox over the course of the full season, so Will Venable might not mind an extra reminder of the work that lies ahead in establishing new baselines.
Speaking of Baseball Prospectus, the 2026 Annual is on sale now, which you can purchase through the distributor or through Sox Machine's Bookshop site (we receive a portion of the sale on that one). James and I both contributed to it; James with the Kansas City Royals essay, and me with White Sox player comments after an opening salvo by Defector's Ray Ratto. I just received my copy, and am looking forward to thumbing through the rest of it over the spring.
Erick Fedde is official
Now that pitchers and catchers have reported and teams are able to move injured players to the 60-day IL to free up 40-man roster spots, the White Sox officially announced the signing of Erick Fedde. He's in the fold on a one-year, $1.5 million contract, and Ky Bush was moved to the 60-day injured list as he continues to build his way back up after Tommy John surgery. Bush threw a bullpen on Tuesday, alongside his fellow rehabbers Mason Adams and Prelander Berroa. Berroa and Drew Thorpe will probably follow Bush into the ranks of corresponding moves to the 60-day IL in due time.
The size of the deal won't be an issue, as $1.5 million is pretty much Bryse Wilson money with a zero transposed, so this could end up being a decent buy-low opportunity. Opportunity cost provides the grounds for debate, as you can argue whether the Sox should have devoted more resources to a more proven commodity. Chris Paddack went to the Marlins for $4 million guaranteed, and José Quintana is signing with the Rockies for $6 million, obliterating the notion that he only wanted to continue plying his trade for a contender, and maybe you like them better. My sense is that they're all roughly commensurate gambles, and that it's going to take Zack Littell money -- whatever that ends up being -- to feel like greater security is being purchased. David Sandlin, the near-ready prospect the Sox used their Luis Robert Jr. money toward instead, told James he's already working on a kick change, for what it's worth.
Fedde will wear No. 47 because Miguel Vargas is wearing his old number. For the thousands of fans who forked over hundreds of dollars for Fedde's No. 20 jersey, his new number will look as out of place as Michael Jordan's No. 45. It's the same exact thing. He's back.
