PREAMBLE
It’s not often that a 60 win team exceeds expectations, but the White Sox kind of did? Not in the win column (they underperformed their expected wins by 11), but there were several young players who exceeded expectations this year. Who had Montgomery launching 21 homers in a half season? Or both Teel and Quero being decent hitters in their rookie season? Shane Smith posting a 2 WAR season (and sneaking into the All Star Game)? Vargas dropping his hands and reaching a 100 OPS+ despite an awful April? Mike Vasil pitching 100 innings with a sub 2.50 ERA?
The White Sox have pieces of a good team. [I’m amazed my keyboard didn’t combust typing that sentence] With full seasons from their young core, it is not inconceivable that they could be a very-fringe contender next year. While I want to prioritize developing young players and bringing in players that could help beyond next season, I also don’t want this to be the 2019 White Sox. As a refresher, that was the year Giolito finished 6th in Cy Young voting, TA won the batting title, Jose Abreu led the AL in RBI, Moncada had a 5 WAR season, and Eloy had 30 homers as a rookie. The Sox won 72 games that year. There is a non-zero chance that Colson Montgomery hits 40 homers next year. I don’t want that to happen for a team that can’t clear 72 wins.
COACHING STAFF
- Hitting coach: n/a
- Pitching coach: n/a
I'm not going to pretend like I have strong opinions on other teams' assistants, but if the Sox aspire to pitch like the Royals, that'd be great. Royals pitchers aren't racking up strikeouts either (24th in K/9), but walked over a 100 batters fewer than the Sox did in 2025. Good luck to Derek Shomon and Karl Bove!
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Mike Tauchman: Non-tender
- Steven Wilson: Tender
- Derek Hill: Non-tender
Non-Tender Tauchman and resign him for 1y/$2.5M. I’d like to have some veterans stick around and help the young guys acclimate to the Majors, and Tauchman was lauded for his clubhouse presence and wants to be here. He was hamstrung by injuries last year, but is a lot better than most RF available, especially in this price range. The Sox have also done much worse than having a lefty slash (.263/.356/.400). He can hold down RF until Braden Montgomery is ready and Baldwin can play full time if injuries befell Tauchman again. Let’s not overcomplicate this.Wilson is fine, or at least 5th bullpen option fine. He avoids hard contact and can be penciled in for exactly 53-55 innings most years.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Luis Robert Jr.: Exercise $20 million option
- Martín Perez: Buy out for $1.5 million
I wanted to decline Luis's option and negotiate a two-year deal at a lower AAV, but I'll stick with this reality.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Trent Grisham (3 years, $54 million).
Grisham adds a lot to the White Sox outfield. First, he’s a big jump up from Benintendi in left, and can slide over to center if/when Robert gets hurt or the Baldwin CF project goes sideways. It’s a bummer he got the QO, so it’s probably a tad reckless to give up a second round pick to sign him. Screw it. If a rebuild fails because you gave away one second round pick, it wasn’t going to succeed anyways. You’ve lost 100+ games the last three seasons. Give the fans something to get excited about. Grisham made some adjustments that led to a career year where he hit 34 homers and walked 14% of the time. He pulled the ball in the air a lot (23.5%). Lefties who do that tend to have a good time at the Rate. On Fangraphs, Ben Clemens wrote of his adjustments, “The result was a career-best batting line, but also one that looked very sustainable; he hits the snot out of the ball, doesn’t chase much, and makes good contact in the strike zone.” Yes please.
No. 2: Devin Williams (2 years, $24 million).
Buying low on an elite reliever coming off a down year, where he still racked up strikeouts (13 K/9) and had an ERA 2 points higher than his FIP. I’ll pony up to watch that regression happen at the back end of the Sox bullpen. The Sox went 15-36 in one-run games last year (yuck). A trio of Williams, Grant Taylor, and an improved Jordan Leasure would help smooth that out. Having the other two also stabilizes the bullpen if you want to give Taylor a shot at starting. Given what high-end relievers have gone for at the trade deadline, this could also turn out to be an investment in the farm system if Williams pitches well and the Sox flounder.
No. 3: Dustin May (Martín Pérez contract – 1 year, $3.5 million, with $1.5 million buyout of mutual option)
Can I interest you in another post-hype Dodgers prospect? This feels like a good opportunity to buy low on a talented arm and see if there is a tick up in his stuff with a healthy offseason (or Brian Bannister finds a changeup for him). I prefer taking a swing at finding a high-end starter and relying on the Sox pitching apparatus (or just Cannon/maybe Hagen Smith) to fill first-half innings if this blows up. May still has great horizontal movement on his sinker and sweeper and even with lower velo had a 101 Stuff+ in 2025 (per Fangraphs). Unrelated 2025 Stuff+ numbers: Shane Smith (95), Davis Martin (97), Sean Burke (92), Yoendrys Gómez (99), Jonathan Cannon (97).
No. 4: Drew Pomeranz (1 year, $3 million).
Veteran lefty who can handle pitching in high leverage situations. Bonus points for having a different release point/pitch shape than Tyler Gilbert (or Fraser Ellard if he ever finds the zone).
TRADES
I’d rather wait and see if Quero’s framing improves and/or he shows a smidge more power to maximize his value before looking to trade him. If Korey Lee gets squeezed off the roster, I'd try to trade him in spring training, and look for an outfielder who needs a change of scenery.
SUMMARY
Lineup:
LF Trent Grisham
C Kyle Teel
1B Lenyn Sosa
SS Colson Montgomery
3B Miguel Vargas
RF Mike Tauchman
CF Luis Robert Jr.
DH Edgar Quero
2B Chase Meidroth
Bench: Brooks Baldwin, Andrew Benintendi, Curtis Mead, Korey Lee
Rotation: Shane Smith, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Dustin May, Yoendrys Goméz
Bullpen: Devin Williams, Grant Taylor, Jordan Leasure, Drew Pomeranz, Steven Wilson, Winkelman Gonzalez, Tyler Gilbert, Mike Vasil
Summary:
I had a lot of fun watching this team after the All Star break this season. I tried to fill some holes with pieces that make them more competitive, like solving LF with Grisham and sending Benintendi to a DH/bench role. I also tried to leave space for their top prospects (Montgomery/Schultz/Smith) to enter the fray later in the year without significant blockage. This roster doesn’t have many massive holes and can give the young players an opportunity to develop in a competitive environment. Let’s build a winning culture, and who knows, this team could be frisky if some of the kids break out. I am slightly over budget ($92.5M total), but in my defense I planned on declining Luis’s option and negotiating a two-year deal at something like $14M/year. C’est la vie.
