White Sox Minor Keys: Aug. 14, 2023

8:00 AM CDT on August 15, 2023

Regions Field in Birmingham (Jim Margalus)

The Birmingham Barons and the rest of the Southern League marked a month playing with the standard MLB-caliber baseball, rather than the enhanced-grip baseball that caused spin rates to spike, strikeouts to surge, some control issues, and all sorts of other unintended consequences.

Now that we have a nice, convenient, commonly used unit of time instead of a small sample with an arbitrary endpoint, let's take a look at how White Sox prospects at Double-A have fared after the transition.

Bryan Ramos

Before July 14: .233/.360/.388, 13.6% BB, 28.6% K
Since July 14: .349/.449/.730, 11.2% BB, 12.5% K

Ramos got a late start to his season due to a groin injury he suffered back in the spring, so some of the former line may be attributable to rust, but either way, that latter line is what you love to see.

José Rodríguez

Before July 14: .251/.282/.454, 4.1% BB, 24.5% K over 241 PA
Since July 14: .287/.321/.455, 4.7% BB, 19.8% K over 106 PA

Rodríguez's post-break walk and strikeout rates are still worse than his career averages coming into the season, including a 13.7 percent strikeout rate during 104 games at Birmingham last year. In terms of his other production, he's more or less back to his lifetime minor-league average (.285/.326/.450). He's logged 185 games and 844 plate appearances at Double-A, so I'm curious whether the Sox will promote him despite this one potentially noteworthy step back.

Luis Mieses

Before July 14: .239/.266/.365, 3.5% BB, 25.1% K over 315 PA
Since July 14: .281/.289/.390, 1.2% BB, 20.5% K over 83 PA

Mieses' poor production to me was the first sign something was wrong with the environment, because his game was nowhere to be found. His flaws remain evident -- he doesn't hit for enough power given how infrequently he walks -- but at least the bat-to-ball stuff is a lot closer to normal.

Yoelqui Céspedes

Before July 14: .200/.319/.323, 11.4% BB, 31.3% K over 307 PA
Since July 14: .253/.340/.310, 8.9% BB, 24.8% K over 101 PA

Likewise, Céspedes' hit tool has recovered to something playable. He's eclipsed 1,000 plate appearances at Double-A, and he can't figure out how to add production in one area without losing it somewhere else. The power has plummeted with the strikeout rate here, so while his defense remains defensive-replacement-caliber, a playable offensive package may forever elude him.

Alsander Womack

Before July 14: .257/.359/.372, 12.5% BB, 16.4% K over 256 PA
Since July 14: .354/.476/.415, 17.1% BB, 12.2% K over 82 PA

If you combined the strengths of Céspedes and Womack, you'd have yourself the ultimate table-setter. As it stands, it's hard to figure out where somebody his size and shape can play, but he's maximizing his skills.

Adam Hackenberg

Before July 14: .265/.351/.362, 9.0% BB, 23.4% K over 222 PA
Since July 14: .344/.544/.531, 23.9% BB, 15.2% K over 46 PA

Hackenberg was promoted to Charlotte not long after the second half of the season opened, and it's easy to understand why. He was poised for a breakout considering that rather decent first-half line is hampered by a sluggish April. The improved plate discipline had been evidence for a couple months before the break. When the Southern League made the swap, he was able to flip the switch.

Edgar Quero

Before July 14: .242/.378/.327, 16.2% BB, 18.0% K over 278 PA
Since July 14: .304/.406/.367, 14.6% BB, 9.4% K over 96 PA

Quero didn't join the Barons until after he came over to the White Sox in the Lucas Giolito trade in late July, but he played the entire first half of the season with the Rocket City Trash Pandas. It was a challenging assignment, given that he's only 20 and the Angels let him skip High-A, but it no longer looks like he's merely treading water. It'd be great to see more power, but at least it's fair to say he's more than getting by.

So there you have it: Every hitter has made at least some improvements since the return to the standard baseball. There is one notable pollutant to this comparison, and that's standard development. Most promising prospects tend to get better at a level the more they see it, so you'd expect the second-half lines to represent improvement even if the baseball remained the same. The sharp improvements in the contact-oriented aspects of the game make me wonder if natural improvements were restricted by the baseball, and now that pent-up energy is revealing itself in some sensational months.