Doubling the 2026 White Sox’s numbers at the halfway point

At the mathematical halfway point, the 2026 White Sox are on pace to finish 86-76. An entire half of work remains, but as long as they sit in a postseason spot, they're free to play the "nobody believed in us" card like Davis Martin did after Saturday's 2-1 victory over the Kansas City Royals.

"We are probably the least surprised about this. I think everybody else can be surprised," Martin said. "We've had the talent. We have the people in the locker room and I think we have the people in the coaching staff and the support staff. We have everything we needed inside the building and now I think we're just putting it all together. We're playing good baseball. Just continue to do our work. We're only halfway, still a lot of baseball to go. So continue to do what we need to do."

The White Sox did technically merit the faintest level of faith, because unlike previous seasons, the projection systems did allow for the White Sox to surprise ... barely.

• ZiPS: 72-90, 6.6% chance of reaching postseason
• PECOTA: 69-93 1.5% chance of reaching postseason

Baseball Prospectus' system gave the White Sox a smaller sliver, but its presentation better depicted the number of simulations that gave them a real shot.

And that's when you're reminded that postseason probability has just as much to do with the timing of those rare positive simulations. Last year, 86-76 wouldn't have been enough to make the postseason, and so the 1.5 percent chance of advancing into October would have been proven correct no matter how much the individual record surprised. As it stands this year, 86 wins would be good enough to win the AL Central by two games if the Guardians maintained their first-half performance, with the second wild card spot as a backup if dreams of the division fell through.

The White Sox's success has been built on a number of breakout performances the projection systems didn't count on, and with 81 games in the books, it's time to see how extreme those individual outcomes really look.

At this time every season, we double the first-half numbers to see what it would look like if every member of the White Sox stayed their respective course. It's too crude to be described as analytics in any way, but I find it effective to put those first-half numbers in a 162-game framework. I also find the uncanniness of the lines equal parts appealing and unsettling, because symmetry might not be beautiful if you mirror the weird side.

The results are below, followed by 10 things that jump out at me, evenly divided between pitching and hitting. I'll add WAR columns later, because of Baseball-Reference.com picked this morning of all mornings to be slow with its daily update.

WHITE SOX HITTERS

Takeaways

No. 1: If Miguel Vargas indeed finishes with exactly 100 RBIs on the season, everybody should remember Will Venable rewarding his hustle by overturning a bases-loaded, inning-ending double play with the White Sox leading by 19.

No. 2: Sam Antonacci's HBP pace has slowed, as he's only gotten plunked once over the last 15 games. He's still on track to blast past the franchise record of 23, shared by Minnie Miñoso in 1956 and Carlos Quentin in 2011.

No. 3: The most homers ever hit by somebody who finished a season with eight doubles was Mark McGwire, who hit 32 over just 89 games during the crest of the Steroid Era in 2000. Munetaka Murakami has to return to the lineup before he can make a real run at this very specific history. He's currently running at 85 percent intensity, so the Sox haven't committed to a timetable yet.

No. 4: If you combine Randal Grichuk and Austin Hays, you get a veteran right-handed corner outfielder on a one-year, $7.25 million contract who is hitting .276/.310/.535 over 129 plate appearances.

No. 5: When considering the acquisition cost, the meager initial expectations and the way he's filled the position of greatest need, Tristan Peters would have to have one of the most valuable 4 WAR seasons in recent White Sox history, right?

WHITE SOX PITCHERS

Takeaways

No. 1: Davis Martin has been denied wins in each of his last two starts, so Esteban Loaiza will probably be able to breathe easy as the White Sox's last 20-game winner, wherever he is.

No. 2: The single-season HBP record by a White Sox pitcher is held by Chris Sale, who plunked 17 in 2016. Anthony Kay should be able to pass it by August, but he’s hung up on even more specific standings.

“Got to lead the league in hitting guys on their toe,” Kay said after his last start.

No. 3: The White Sox still haven't thrown a complete game since Mike Clevinger went the distance in consecutive September starts back in 2023, although the latter one was just six innings.

No. 4: White Sox pitchers have allowed just 30 unearned runs, and nine of them are the Manfred Man coming around to score in extra innings. That's probably more a result of fewer batted balls being considered errors than excellent team defense, but White Sox pitchers still have their truest ERAs since 2012.

No. 5: Trevor Richards has distilled the job of a mop-up man to its very essence. He's recorded more than four outs in half of his 18 appearances and he'd rather give up homer than a walk, which is how he's on pace to challenge Scott Linebrink's franchise record for the most games finished without a save. Linebrink finished 28 games in 2010, but in 52 appearances. Give Richards 52 appearances, and he'd finish with 39, which is truly Low-Leverage King Material.