2026 MLB Draft Report: Updates on Roch Cholowsky, Justin Lebron, and Jackson Flora

With Michigan beating UConn in the Men’s college basketball championship game on Monday, it’s been a banner year for the Big Ten. The conference has seen national championships from Indiana (football), Wisconsin (women’s hockey), UCLA (women’s basketball), Penn State (wrestling), and now Michigan. With how well the UCLA baseball team is playing, maybe a sixth national championship trophy is on the way.

By sweeping USC, UCLA baseball demonstrates resilience and few weaknesses, except perhaps in starting pitching depth. Their advantages include a deep lineup, strong defense, and elite bullpen arms — an almost unbeatable college baseball formula. Notably, UCLA’s success doesn’t depend on Roch Cholowsky performing as a superstar.

Meanwhile, in the SEC, Justin Lebron continues to struggle in conference play. After another lackluster weekend against Oklahoma, it appears that the issues we saw from Lebron last year in conference play are back. Compared to Cholowsky and other top five prospects, Lebron’s ongoing struggles put him at a disadvantage in the current rankings.

Keeping in mind the evolving prospect rankings, if there’s anyone to challenge Cholowsky’s standing, it’s now UC-Santa Barbara’s ace pitcher, Jackson Flora.

To tie everything together, here’s this week’s 2026 MLB Draft Report, with a recap of last weekend and a look ahead to this weekend. 

Roch Report: Cholowsky snaps homerless streak

On Sunday, Cholowsky belted a three-run homer in the eighth inning to extend UCLA’s lead to 10-4. It was Cholowsky’s 11th home run of the season, but his first in 11 games. It was expected that after a good performance against non-conference opponents, Cholowsky would unleash against Big Ten pitching. That hasn’t been the case.

In 15 conference games, Cholowsky has only six extra base hits with an even split of doubles and home runs. His strikeout rate against Big Ten pitching is almost double that of his non-conference games. All the while, Cholowsky is still posting an OPS over 1.000 thanks to his ability to draw walks and not being afraid of taking one for the team (seven HBPs). He can still post another 20 home run campaign, and Cholowsky continues to play defense at a high level.

But on Friday and Saturday, Cholowsky went 2-for-11 with two singles, a walk, and three strikeouts. Against USC’s best pitchers, LHP Mason Edwards and RHP Grant Govel, Cholowsky was 1-for-6 with a very generous home scoring of an infield hit. That doens't leave many highlights to report, unless you want to watch Edwards strike out Cholowsky looking.

There’s a benefit to watching Cholowsky grind through at-bats. We often see in the majors that when hitters get cold, the strikeouts pile up, and productive at-bats are hard to come by. While I think Cholowsky’s future power will be streaky and counting numbers will come in bunches, I still see a hitter trying to figure out how to reach first base safely. Maybe Cholowsky is pressing a bit through this cold stretch, but if a slump is a power hitter who is still taking walks and mixes in a single to right field, that’s still being productive. Maybe some pro scouts will note that’s the mark of a winning player. Even when they are not at their best, they still figure out a way to contribute.

But after his home run on Sunday, Cholowsky walloped two more against Cal State Fullerton on Tuesday night. Maybe another power surge is on its way. 

Justin Lebron batting .208 vs. SEC opponents

After hitting 2-for-12 vs. Oklahoma with four strikeouts to one walk, Lebron is now batting .208 in conference play. This poor start against SEC schools is garnering a lot of attention, and it’s starting to make fellow analysts wonder if Lebron merits consideration among the top five prospects in this class.

We’ve known Lebron’s hitting profile is volatile. He certainly has demonstrated the ability to hit for power. Add his base-stealing skills (24-for-24 in stolen base attempts this season), and it’s not far-fetched to believe that Lebron could be a future 20/30 type of offensive player. With his level of athleticism at shortstop, Lebron has the tools to forecast as an everyday MLB shortstop.

But it’s the contact ability that gives me pause about making bold declarations about LeBron’s future.

Lebron’s overall season numbers are .256/.394/.560 with a 18.7% strikeout rate and a 12.9% walk rate. He’s cut down on the strikeouts (career 21.7% K-rate) while mostly maintaining his walk rate from last year. So what’s the problem? Lebron’s ground-ball rate has significantly increased.

Along with almost a 12 percent increase in ground-ball rate from last year, Lebron has seen his BABIP also take a big hit. It’s currently at .244, a 125-point drop from 2025 (.369 BABIP).

Maybe, like Cholowsky, we could see Lebron snap out of this cold streak and witness a positive regression closer to his college career averages. But if this poor hitting against SEC opponents continues for Lebron, I wonder how far he slips in the upcoming draft? I don’t think it will be like Jace LaViolette, who went from 2025 preseason No. 1 prospect to being drafted 27th overall. However, if the draft were tomorrow, I don’t think Lebron goes in the first five picks.

Flamethrower Jackson Flora continues his heater

This past Friday, Flora pitched a complete game shutout against Cal Poly. Throwing a total of 118 pitches, Flora only allowed four hits, walked two and struck out nine. That shutout extends Flora’s scoreless streak to 33⅓ innings. In eight starts this season, Flora has a microscopic 0.69 ERA in 52⅓ innings with 65 strikeouts to 15 walks.

Every opposing team against Flora has the same game plan: attack the first-pitch fastball. Despite coming in at 98+ MPH, hitters have a much better chance of making good contact against the heater than trying to put Flora’s slider or changeup into play. This arsenal is elite, and I’m beginning to wonder if this is another situation like we saw last year when the Los Angeles Angels took Tyler Bremner second overall. Because UC-Santa Barbara plays in the Big West and games are only available on ESPN+, not many people get to see the Gauchos' pitchers, so it could be a surprise to see another one taken in the top five again.

But we know how expensive starting pitching is and how fragile it can be. Sure, it’s fun to dream about what a future White Sox rotation of Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, and Tanner McDougal could bring. As the Chicago Cubs painfully found out with the recent injury news of Cade Horton, best laid plans for pitching rotations can easily be scrapped. You can never have too many arms.

I still believe Cholowsky is the White Sox top target, but I’m starting to think that the best route for Tampa Bay with the second pick is taking Flora. In a way, he would remind Rays fans of Tyler Glasnow, but hopefully with a better health track record.

MLB Draft Notables

• Watching his start against UCLA on Friday, Mason Edwards reminds me a bit of Reid Detmers. It was mostly in the low 90s with the heat, but Edwards was confident throwing breaking stuff for strikes. I wonder, as a professional, if Edwards has it in him to find a couple more ticks on the four-seamer, because he has a chance to have three 50-grade or better pitches. I thought Edwards did a good job working the strike zone, but his defense did him no favors against UCLA. This is a good college pitcher who has worked himself into first-round consideration.
• LSU catcher Cade Arrambide hit four home runs vs. Tennessee on Sunday, which doubled his season total.
• Speaking of LSU, the Tigers are in the middle of the SEC pack with a 22-11 record and 6-6 in conference play. But Derek Curiel is starting to produce offensively in a big way. In his last five games, Curiel is 11-for-21 with 3 HR and 12 RBI.
• Texas senior pitcher Ruger Riojas is gaining some helium. It’s a mid-90s four-seam fastball paired with a cutter, splitter, and working on two variations of a slider. Riojas will be 23 years old on draft day, but he’s got impressive season numbers after eight starts. With a 33.9 percent K-BB rate, Riojas ranks third in the country with that metric only behind Oregon State’s Dax Whitney and Wake Forest’s Chris Levonas (both 2027 MLB Draft eligible). 

NCBWA Top 25 Poll

Games I’m watching this weekend

No. 6 Florida State at No. 3 Georgia Tech

Thursday, April 9: 6:00 PM CT on ACC Network

Friday, April 10: 7:00 PM CT on ACC Network

Saturday, April 11: 2:00 PM CT on ACC Network Extra

Georgia Tech players to watch

• C Vahn Lackey
• OF Drew Burress
• INF Jarren Advincula
• OF Alex Hernandez

Florida State players to watch

• LHP Trey Beard
• LHP Wes Mendes

No. 2 Texas at No. 16 Texas A&M

Friday, April 10: 7:00 PM CT on SEC Network

Saturday, April 11: 2:00 PM CT on ESPN 2

Sunday, April 12: 1:00 PM CT on SEC+

Texas players to watch

• RHP Ruger Riojas
• OF Aiden Robbins
• C Carson Tinney

Texas A&M players to watch

• INF Chris Hacopian
• OF Caden Sorrell
• INF Gavin Grahovac
• LHP Shane Sdao