A day before the White Sox agreed to a two-year, $12 million contract with Anthony Kay after rejuvenating his career in Japan, the Blue Jays landed the most coveted overseas rehab project, signing KBO MVP Cody Ponce for three years and $30 million.
Except the Blue Jays also signed Dylan Cease for seven years and $210 million, and he was preceded by Shane Bieber exercising his $16 million option. The Blue Jays already had five starters before Ponce, but now they're able to gauge José Berríos' value on the open market.
The acquisition of Kay creates no such ripples. Martín Pérez occupied a rotation spot at the start of the 2025 season, Yoendrys Gómez held it down at the end of the year, and now both of them are gone via free agency and trade, respectively. Kay figures to step into that spot, with the other incumbents -- Shane Smith, Davis Martin, Sean Burke and Jonathan Cannon -- not yet disturbed.
The signing isn't yet official, so we've yet to hear from the parties involved about intentions and expectations. James has heard that Kay is expected to start, and we also have this interview by Robert Murray (h/t bobsquad), who got Kay to talk about the way his fastball usage has evolved from four-seamers to two-seamers, and how he's looking forward to proving himself as a major league starter, so that should inform your assumptions for the beginning of his stay on the South Side.
If the White Sox have a type -- or more precisely, if the White Sox have a favorite aisle at the Dollar General -- it's Guys Who are Willing to Try Another Fastball. Smith and Gómez were able to reinvent themselves in the second half by adding a two-seamer, while Cannon and Burke are hoping to iterate on late-season revelations with theirs. New pitching coach Zach Bove also referenced the Royals having recent success by expanding arsenals and introducing more fastball shapes, with Kris Bubic making more use of a sinker and rookie Noah Cameron throwing more cutters serving as examples. Theoretically, Kay arrives having already done the work, and now it's a matter of seeing how big league hitters to react to it.
It could work out well enough for the money, giving the White Sox rotation a lefty they lacked, and adding another malleable arm to an improving pitching apparatus. But if you're initially underwhelmed, it could be because the White Sox keep adding starters without a clear-cut strength. The saying in football is that if you have two quarterbacks, you don't have one. Here, if you have five pitches, you don't have two--or at least not two that can be thrown to batters of either handedness. Either the bread is stale or the butter is unsalted, and that makes success short of sustaining.
Center field market moves
While the Kay signing overshadowed James' Wednesday morning post about Luis Robert Jr.'s trade value, the Rays helped recenter the conversation by signing one of the market's other leading options.
Tampa Bay signed Cedric Mullins to a one-year, $7 million contract, as both are betting on a rebound from a mediocre 2025. Mullins hit a front-loaded .216/.299/.391 over 133 games with the Orioles and Mets, with center field defense that registered as either average (Statcast) or abysmal (Defensive Runs Saved). He's been pretty durable, he's still a plus baserunner and can handle the long side of a platoon, so it seems like there are multiple ways for the Rays to get their money's worth, but he's been offering a little less in each of the past three seasons, so there's a question about how long he can keep the decline gradual.
Given that Mullins hit .198/.263/.355 over the final five months of the season, $7 million feels like a slightly elevated price for such a bet, and yet it's so far away from the $20 million owed to Robert that I wonder if any team talking a trade with the White Sox will expect some help in covering the salary. That's not the standard operating procedure for a Jerry Reinsdorf team, but Chris Getz was strangely insistent on exercising Robert's option despite underperformance and injury, perhaps they're prioritizing getting something for him, whatever it takes.
