The Cleveland Guardians completed one step of their incredible September surge by securing a postseason berth, which they did in the most Guardians fashion possible: a walk-off HBP.
The Guardians clinch a playoff spot with a walkoff hit by pitch
— CJ Fogler (@cjzero.bsky.social) 2025-09-28T02:05:16.209Z
FanGraphs gave the Guardians a 2.5 percent chance of making the postseason as recently as Sept. 2. They had a 0.1 percent chance of winning the division, and they can finish that business today with a win over the Rangers, since they hold the tiebreaker over Detroit.
That'd be embarrassing for the Tigers, but they avoided the worst-case scenario, because they too secured a wild card spot at the very least. That means the Astros are out, meaning this October will be the first one without Houston since 2016.
All games start at 2:05 p.m. CT in order to not give any team an unfair advantage due to time zones. Here's what to watch when scoreboard-watching.
American League
While two division winners won't be determined until the final day, all the postseason teams are accounted for: Blue Jays, Yankees, Mariners, Red Sox, Guardians and Tigers. All the tiebreakers are established, so this would be the order if everybody held serve:
- Blue Jays
- Mariners
- Guardians
- Yankees
- Red Sox
- Tigers
It would take a Blue Jays loss and a Yankees victory for the latter to win the AL East and the first seed, and a Guardians loss with a Tigers win for Detroit to take the AL Central and the No. 3 seed.
Independent of the division winners, there's another way the order can change based on Sunday's outcomes. The Red Sox and Tigers are playing each other, and while Boston is one game ahead of Detroit, Detroit holds the tiebreaker. Should the Tigers win Sunday's game but not the Central, they'd be in the No. 5 spot, and Red Sox sixth.
National League
The National League is both more orderly and disorderly compared to the American League, depending on how you're looking at it. On one hand, the top five seeds have been established.
- Brewers
- Phillies
- Dodgers
- Cubs
- Padres
On the other, the final wild card spot is still up for grabs. The Reds and Mets have identical 83-78 records, but Cincinnati holds the tiebreaker, so the Mets need a win and a Reds loss to avoid colossal embarrassment.
What about the White Sox?
If they beat the Nationals today, the White Sox would reach a nice round number with 60 wins. They'd also avoid losing a 103rd game, which would stand alone as the third highest total in franchise history, even if it represents an 18-game improvement from last year.
What else:
*Colson Montgomery won't let Lenyn Sosa win the home run title in peace, as he trails 22-21 with one game to play.
*Shane Smith needs to record eight outs in order to lead the team in innings, as he trails Davis Martin by 2⅓ innings. He will make his 29th start, which is four more than any other member of the White Sox rotation.
*Grant Taylor can tie Jordan Leasure with seven saves if a save situation arises, and Taylor's the one to get the ball.
