The White Sox hadn't entirely ruled out a significant free agent outlay this winter, but Chris Getz described it as needing the right set of circumstances for it to make sense.
Somehow, Munetaka Murakami fell right into their laps.
The left-handed Japanese slugger, who set the NPB single-season home run record with 56 over 141 games for the Yakult Swallows in 2022, is coming to the South Side on a two-year, $34 million contract, as Sox Machine has confirmed Jeff Passan's report.
The contract is a far cry from what Murakami was expected to receive, no matter who was doing the predicting. The prospect of a lefty power bat entering his age-26 season stoked enthusiasm, as contract predictions ranged anywhere from five years and $80 million (ESPN), to six years and $132 million (FanGraphs crowdsourcing), to upwards of eight years and $180 million (MLB Trade Rumors).
That he received only a two-year contract reflects a few concerns, such as:
The posting fee: Along with the guaranteed money in the contract, an MLB club has to pay the Swallows a "release fee" that's based on percentages of the guaranteed amount. Based on the formula outlined on MLB.com -- 20 percent of the first $25 million, 17.5 percent of the next $25 million -- the White Sox are paying an extra $6.575 million, putting the total outlay at $40.575 million. That makes it less of a bargain, and that would be even more the case as the guarantee escalated.
Defensive limitations: Listed at 6'2" and 213 pounds,. Murakami was advertised as a third baseman, but his defensive reputation is not strong, and Passan says he'll play first base for the White Sox.
Contact issues: Murakami's strikeout rate approached 30 percent the last few seasons, even though NPB pitchers aren't hunting whiffs. FanGraphs' write-up cited a contact rate that plummets after 93 mph, and swing-and-miss issues against secondary pitches as well.
Injuries: Murakami was limited to 56 games with Yakult's main club due to an oblique strain, and dealt with a broken toe and elbow surgery the year before. He'd previously exhibited a strong everyday player track record, and he mashed after returning (.268/.392/.569 over 263 plate appearances), so perhaps he's just run into a cluster of bad luck.
This assortment of factors made Murakami's market difficult to ascertain, and all of them conspired to lower his salary into a territory the White Sox could wade into. The Sox sorely need power, don't have anybody resembling a regular first baseman, and are running one of the league's lowest payrolls with precious few seven-figure salaries, so they can accept the risk in every regard. If his NPB production smoothly translates somehow, the White Sox offense is suddenly far more potent than had been projected, and if he's a bust, there was no more interesting way to spend that kind of money.
In the meantime, Murakami will be the White Sox's first direct Japanese import since Tadahito Iguchi in 2005, and the first Japanese-born player since Kosuke Fukudome's forgettable 24-game stint in 2012.
