For the third time in four years, it's unclear which White Sox will end up leading the team in home runs.
The last two times we've ruminated over this topic -- 2024 and 2022 -- it typically triggers the old warning about the danger of asking questions you don't know the answer to. In the end, an uninspiring field produced an uninspiring result.
And had we asked this question at the All-Star break, when Andrew Benintendi led the way with 11 and three teammates tepid on his trail, it would've been a similarly deflating exercise. Yes, it would've been a race by the technical definition, but the fact that exactly 100 players hit more than the White Sox's team leader would've taken some of the steam out of it.
It's a different story in the second half, at least under the surface. An unimpressive total is still is good enough to lead the White Sox, as 88 players have hit more than the 14 hit by Benintendi and Lenyn Sosa, but that's besides the point when the White Sox are leading the league in homers since the All-Star break, fueled by Colson Montgomery's 10 homers over the last 18 games.
Montgomery's surge makes it a five-horse race, and gives the homestretch the drama it needed. So which one are you riding?
The Establishment: Andrew Benintendi (14 homers)
The case for: He's done it before, winning last year's race with 20. He's well suited to take advantage of Rate Field's right field, and it's hard to see him losing playing time over the remainder of the year, whether it's because of his contract, being on the long side of any matchup plan, or that the White Sox have been running a deficit of outfielders all season.
The case against: He's currently in a rut, going 3-for-33 over his last eight games, and he's no stranger to prolonged slumps. He also dealt with a couple of leg injuries earlier in the year and struggles to play 140 games in a season, so he's not a lock for everyday action the rest of the year.
The Survivor: Lenyn Sosa (14 homers)
The case for: He's playing his best baseball of the season, hitting .370/.423/.696 with five homers over his last 13 games. He's a righty who's better against righties, and he plays -- or at least covers -- multiple positions, so Will Venable can make a spot for him somewhere if Sosa keeps earning his keep. With an intentional effort that he alluded to over the weekend, Sosa has figured out how to lift the ball to the pull field, giving him the ability to luck into an homer. He's also seeing the right kind of correlation between his chase rate and his production, which should only encourage him to reduce the amount of hopeless swings.
The case against: "Disciplined" by his standards is still "insanely aggressive" for the vast majority of major league hitters, and that always runs the risk of backfiring. He doesn't have a natural defensive home, and the addition of Curtis Mead runs the risk of crowding him out of the infield if the demerits start to outweigh the benefits. Though he has some opposite-field power, he isn't able to make use of jet stream to the Kraft Kave, so Rate Field offers him no special advantages.
The Infirm: Miguel Vargas (13 homers)
The case for: He makes the best swing decisions of the group, which is how he's led the team in homers at various points this season without standout raw power. The White Sox seem to like him the most of the first base candidates, and the team is still very much invested in his success, so he should play every day when he's fully healthy.
The case against: He's dealing with an oblique injury, so while his return is imminent, its smoothness can't be guaranteed. He's not naturally geared for power and admits as such. Only one of his 26 career homers have gone to the opposite field, and his home/away splits show that Rate Field offers him no special advantages (he's hit nine of his 13 homers on the road).
The Sleeping Giant: Luis Robert Jr. (12 homers)
The case for: He's hitting .333/.397/.478 since the All-Star break, and he's popped four of his dingers to the opposite field, which is a positive sign for tapping into his ability to homer by accident. He has a 38-homer season to his name, which is more than every other candidate besides Benintendi has hit in his career, and he'll play as much as he's physically allowed, whether to boost his trade value in the offseason or prepare him for a spot on the 2026 White Sox roster.
The case against: The first three months of the season, as well as his entire 2024. He's also dealt with an assortment of lower-body injuries this year, so you can't count on him staying healthy, and he's not the kind of hitter who produces well at 80 percent.
The Revolutionary: Colson Montgomery (10 homers)
The case for: Ten homers in the last 18 games with a torpedo bat at least helping to cue a workably more compact swing path. Homering is what he's physically designed to do at this stage in his career, even if it comes at the expense of everything else. His average bat speed is 12th among all hitters with at least 25 swings, on par with Aaron Judge. He's strong enough to hit homers with less than optimal contact, and able to reach the GD concourse when everything comes up Colson.
The case against: His plate coverage still seems very much exploitable, with a 68-percent contact rate buoyed by the fact that he's still seeing his share of pitches in the zone. Perhaps he improves upon exposure to junk, or perhaps it leads to a prolonged outage, which he was no stranger to in his prospect days.
