This past week, FanGraphs posted THE BAT X 2026 projections. If you are not familiar with Derek Carty’s work, THE BAT X has been a very valuable resource for top fantasy baseball players. Last year, Carty wrote a handy guide explaining how THE BAT X projection model works by incorporating sabermetric methodologies and StatCast data for both long-season and daily fantasy sports fantasy baseball formats.
A projection model like ZiPS is great for taking what a player has accomplished in the minors and projecting what the future may hold based on historical player development curves. THE BAT X leans heavily on StatCast and is more responsive with in-season projections. Hence, it’s a favorite of serious fantasy baseball players as things can change rapidly with injuries, callups, and surprise performances.
Looking over THE BAT X 2026 projections for the Chicago White Sox position players, there are some notable callouts to be excited about, and some projections that inspire doubts about the White Sox rebuild.
PROJECTION: MURAKAMI TO HIT 34 HOME RUNS
Colson Montgomery’s late surge in 2025 helped him finish fifth in the American League Rookie of the Year voting, but free agent signee Munetaka Murakami is one of the favorites to win the award in 2026. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, Murakami currently has the second-best odds behind Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Trey Yesavage to win AL Rookie of the Year in 2026.
| Player | AL Rookie of the Year Odds |
|---|---|
| Trey Yesavage | +290 |
| Munetaka Murakami | +380 |
| Tatsuya Imai | +500 |
| Kevin McGonigle | +600 |
| Samuel Basallo | +700 |
If Murakami can live up to his THE BAT X projections, he could have a very strong case for winning the award. Carty’s system has Murakami hitting 34 home runs in 600 plate appearances for the White Sox in 2026. That total is tied for the 10th-highest in MLB with Yordan Alvarez.
For those who are very concerned about Murakami’s strikeout rate, THE BAT X agrees with you, giving Murakami a 37.5 percent strikeout rate projection, paired with a 14.6 percent walk rate. Simply put: THE BAT X is projecting Murakami to be a true three-outcome hitter. The walks and home runs would carry a projected 117 wRC+ and .780 OPS.
PROJECTION: MONTGOMERY 27 HOME RUNS AND 2.9 WAR
It’s not a pretty projected slash line for Montgomery with THE BAT X: .228/.306/.426 in 607 plate appearances, but it’s 27 home runs and 77 RBIs for his first full season. A paltry .723 OPS would be an offensive step back for Montgomery, but THE BAT X does like his defense at shortstop. That helps fuel a 2.9 WAR projection for Montgomery, which would be tied for the team lead among position players and ranks 17th for MLB shortstops.
| White Sox Hitter | THE BAT X Projected Home Runs |
|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami | 34 |
| Colson Montgomery | 27 |
| Miguel Vargas | 23 |
| Luis Robert Jr. | 22 |
| Andrew Benintendi | 18 |
| Kyle Teel | 13 |
PROJECTION: VARGAS TAKES A STEP FORWARD
We’ve seen short spurts of top-end offensive production from Miguel Vargas during his tenure with the White Sox, but nothing close to the hype he was building during his Los Angeles Dodgers prospect days. THE BAT X sees things finally clicking for Vargas in his age-26 season with the White Sox to the tune of a .244/.321/.433 slash line and 23 home runs with 75 RBIs. A projected 110 wRC+ makes Vargas the preseason second most valuable hitter according to THE BAT X, behind Murakami.
Now projected to get the majority of playing time at third base, Vargas is tied with Montgomery with regards to overall value, having a preseason projection of 2.9 WAR. THE BAT X is a believer that Vargas will maintain a strikeout rate below 20 percent while displaying more power than last year.
PROJECTION: THE BAT X LIKES TEEL MORE THAN QUERO
Kyle Teel is projected to have 2.6 WAR according to THE BAT X for 2026, featuring an uptick in defensive production paired with 13 home runs and a slashline of .246/.332/.394 to pace a 104 wRC+. Compared to all catchers in the majors, THE BAT X sees Teel in the middle of the pack when it comes to overall ranking (15th), but close to being a top-10 catcher offensively using wRC+. That’s pretty promising for another young player entering his first full season of work.
Meanwhile, THE BAT X doesn’t appear to like Edgar Quero much. With a projected sample size similar to Teel's (484 plate appearances), THE BAT X has Quero down for a 0.6 WAR and below league average at 94 wRC+. It’s the slugging ability for Teel that gives him an edge offensively over Quero, but THE BAT X is not hopeful about a defensive bounce back.
Only St. Louis’ Ivan Herrera and Boston’s Willson Contreras are projected to be worse defenders than Quero. Both Herrera (mostly DH) and Contreras (first base) rarely squat anymore. Quero’s defensive progress is going to garner a lot of attention this upcoming spring training. THE BAT X model is one he's going to have to win over on both sides of the ball.
PROJECTION: NO RETURN TO 2023 FOR ROBERT JR.
While Luis Robert Jr. improved his walk rate in 2025, his lack of power led to a concerning 84 wRC+ in back-to-back seasons. That was nowhere close to the level of offensive production Robert flashed between the 2021 and 2023 seasons, and THE BAT X is not expecting 2026 to be a resurgence. With 593 projected plate appearances, which would be close to a career high, THE BAT X has Robert down for 22 home runs with a slash line of .240/.303/.415, which is merely good enough for a 98 wRC+.
That would qualify as an improvement, yet it would still be short of average at the plate. He recovers some value with baserunning and defense, which gets him to 2.3 WAR. From a fantasy baseball perspective, THE BAT X projection of 33 stolen bases puts Robert firmly in the Top 10 in that category.
PROJECTION: SECOND BASE LOOKS IFFY
Despite leading the White Sox in home runs last year, THE BAT X is not forecasting Lenyn Sosa to be an offensive difference-maker in 2026. With a projected 367 plate appearances, THE BAT X has Sosa with 11 home runs, a slash line of .245/.280/.388, and an 83 wRC+. We know how bad Sosa is defensively, no matter the position, and that flaw shows up with a projected 0.1 WAR.
Chase Meidroth has the most projected plate appearances at second base, but THE BAT X is forecasting Nick Madrigal-type numbers with a .250/.327/.322 slash line and 86 wRC+. If both Sosa and Meidroth performed to these projections, it would invite the idea of seeing what Sam Antonacci can do.
PROJECTION: BENINTENDI PROJECTED FOR 1.2 WAR
In 402 games and 1,613 plate appearances, Andrew Benintendi has been worth -0.2 WAR for the White Sox since signing the largest free agent contract in franchise history. He’s gutted through a number of injuries, and the plan is to limit the amount of playing time in left field for Benintendi in 2026. THE BAT X sees that as a wise decision, projecting Benintendi with a 1.2 WAR season thanks to 18 home runs, a 102 wRC+, and a .247/.313/.417 slash line. Playing 75 percent of his games at DH might be the only way Benintendi cracks the 1 WAR threshold again.
