For suffering enough for the fourth-worst record in baseball in 2023, the White Sox's reward was ... the fifth overall pick in the 2024 MLB draft.
The White Sox ended up on the wrong end of the MLB draft lottery, which was determined at the winter meetings in Nashville this afternoon.
At 60-102, the White Sox had the fourth-highest chance of getting the top spot, one notch below the Athletics, Royals and Rockies, all of whom had an equal 18.3 percent chance at the first pick.
Instead, they ended up in a sort of no-man's land at No. 5, because teams who are selected in the top six are ineligible to participate in the following year's lottery as an anti-tanking measure. Not only do the White Sox get one spot worse than under the old rules, but they can't pick any higher than 10th next year.
Making matters worse, the Cleveland Guardians, who had a 2 percent chance of winning the lottery, ended up beating out the Cincinnati Reds (0.9) percent for the top spot. At least the Sox aren't alone in their misfortune as the draft order shows below. When looking at their pre-draft lottery odds rankings, the Royals suffered a worse fate:
- Guardians (9)
- Reds (13)
- Rockies (t-1)
- A's (t-1)
- White Sox (4)
- Royals (t-1)
- Cardinals (5)
- Angels (6)
- Pirates (8)
- Nationals (n/a)
- Tigers (10)
- Red Sox (11)
- Giants (12)
- Cubs (16)
- Mariners (17)
- Marlins (n/a)
- Brewers (n/a)
- Rays (n/a)
For teams who are counting on contending -- or at least counting wins more than they count losses -- this doesn't really matter. The Twins are a good example of this, as they beat the odds at last year's winter meetings to snag the fifth pick in the 2023 draft, then won the AL Central the following year. They'll pick 23rd this time around, and nobody's complaining.
For a team like the White Sox, which certainly didn't count on being bad for multiple seasons, the inability to pick in the top six in consecutive years comes as a real blow. If nothing else, at least Sox fans have firsthand understanding of how this new system has teeth, and learning is its own reward.
There's some solace in the fact that the last time the Sox had the opportunity to pick in the top five, they selected Nick Madrigal and Andrew Vaughn, neither of whom have turned out to be difference-makers. It just would offer more consolation if the White Sox's director of player development back then wasn't the GM now.
For a first look at the players the White Sox could consider with the No. 5 pick, Josh surveyed a potential group of picks in a post that's exclusive to Patreon supporters. If you do not yet support Sox Machine, you can consider rectifying that here.
