Johnny Cueto finally found a home, and the stakes for Mike Clevinger escalated a notch.
Cueto signed with the Miami Marlins on Tuesday, and for less than the White Sox's terms with Clevinger in all respects. It's a one-year, $8.5 million deal, with Cueto receiving $6 million for 2023, with a $10.5 million club option or $2.5 million buyout afterward.
Clevinger, meanwhile, will make $8 million in 2023, followed by a $4 million buyout in the likely situation that one side or the other declines the $12 million mutual option.
Past performance doesn't guarantee future success, and these two contracts internalize that concept better than anything when judging them by their 2022 seasons:
Clevinger's contract blended into the background of the offseason when other unimpressive starters like Kyle Gibson and Matthew Boyd signed eight-figure deals in short order, but with Cueto only guaranteed seven figures, he might have signed the winter's first enviable starting-pitcher contract. It just so happens to involve a guy who was last seen pitching very, very well for the White Sox.
I wouldn't count on Cueto repeating his success, because he had the seventh-lowest HR/FB rate in the majors among pitchers to throw 150 innings while allowing the highest contact rate among that group. He doesn't get a noteworthy amount of weak contact, ground balls or pop-ups, and last year was the first time he cracked 150 innings since 2016, so he'll have to do his best Jackie Chan impression to defend himself against regression from all angles.
It'd just be nice if Clevinger offered specific reason for hope more recently than 2019. There's still a feeling that the White Sox jumped the market for mediocrity a la Adam Eaton, which I suppose would make Cueto Joc Pederson? That kinda works.
Because the Twins signed Carlos Correa to a nine-figure contract when the market bent in their favor last winter, they were able to sign him again on Tuesday.
Once again, they benefited from a tainted market. In 2021, Correa had to settle for three years and $105 million from Minnesota because he was saddled with the qualifying offer in a crowded shortstop market. It only ended up being one year and $35 million, as Correa opted back into free agency, having won the bet on himself.
This winter, he embarked on the most convoluted free agency journey anybody could remember. He agreed to separate deals of 13 years and $350 million with the Giants, and 12 years and $315 million with the Mets, only to see both crumble due to concerns with the plate in Correa's leg.
The Twins became the third team to sign him, and this one might stick. It only guarantees Correa $200 million over six years, but it could extend to 10 years and $270 million if every option is exercised.
The difference here is that the team holds more cards this time. Correa won a no-trade clause and some impressive salaries up front, but he has no opt-outs. Instead, Correa's body and the Twins will determine the size and scope of the deal. Via Dan Hayes:
The Twins had to take a risk and front-load their deal, paying Correa $36 million over the next three seasons with $31.5 million due in 2026, $30.5 million in 2027 and $30 million in 2028, according to a club source.
After that, the rest of the contract hinges on vesting and team options. Correa can earn $25 million in 2029 if he accrues 575 plate appearances in 2028. Even if he didn’t reach that total, the Twins have a team option to bring Correa back. Correa needs 550 plate appearances in 2029 to earn a $20 million salary the following season, 525 plate appearances in 2030 to earn $15 million in 2031 and 502 trips to the plate in 2031 to lock in a $10 million salary in 2032, according to a source.
There's still significant risk here, but given the fragile nature of the Twins' rebuild, they sorely needed to take this sort of chance on a superstar-grade talent to re-open the closing window. If it works, the rewards are obvious. If Correa doesn't deliver, then he and Byron Buxton will have the only guaranteed deals on the books after 2025, and the rest of the roster can be overhauled freely.
The Twins now have clearly contrasting strategies with the White Sox, who have spent the last two winters counting on impacts to be made from incumbents. Andrew Benintendi is a nice player, but his Royals career shows that about five other players need to make a difference before his specific difference is felt. Of course, last season showed that it's possible that neither road finds gold, but there's not much use in dwelling on the boring outcomes now if there's a real risk of having to live it out.
