PREAMBLE
I see the White Sox in a prime position to turn into a contender as soon as next season. With that being said, my worry is that fear of not being able to make the big leap next season will cause hesitancy this season. But it's never too early to build depth, which will be a key to the eventual contender. Even with the great trades and drafts that have come during this rebuild, health issues have sidelined the Dunnings and Rutherfords of the world that should be creating system depth. In the absence of getting top flight free agents on record organizational deals, it is imperative to have multiple legitimate Major Leaguers in order to field a team that will have a floor of average, which would be an improvement over last year. That way, you allow your homegrown talent to do what we all hope and flourish into superstars. It has already begun with Moncada and Giolito in 2019, and we have exciting reinforcements already in the system that we all hope will take that step as well.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M TENDER (This should not preclude back-end upgrades)
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M NON-TENDER (Thanks for the memories, but these are dollars that MUST be spent on non-bench players, which is what he is on a contender)
- James McCann, $4.9M TENDER (For the sake of the exercise, McCann will accept a 1 year extension, making the total value $8M, lowering his tax hit $4M and saving the Sox $900K in 2020)
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M TENDER (This is a tough one and I have no idea how this will go down, as there's no telling what his health looks like both now and coming up. His potential as an above replacement level starting (?) pitcher makes me think he's worth the risk, similar to a FA on a prove it deal.)
- Leury García, $4M NON-TENDER
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M TENDER
- Josh Osich, $1M NON-TENDER (Claimed by Red Sox as of this writing)
- Ryan Goins, $900K NON-TENDER (He's already been outrighted as of this writing)
CLUB OPTIONS
Write “pick up” or “decline” after the option.
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout DECLINE (Duh)
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) If he truly wants to be here and help the team he'll take this: 2 years, $30M with a $12M mutual option for 2022.
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) Let go (since I am keeping Rodon)
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) Let Go
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) Let Go
With the money on the books so far, plus these arb salaries, $1M to buyout Yonder Alonso and $15M in 2020 to re-sign Abreu, salary totals are estimated around $55M. From there, let's dive in!
FREE AGENTS
SP Madison Bumgarner 6 years $140M
TRADES
Acquire SP Chris Archer ($9M club option already exercised by PIT) for MiLB pitching
Acquire OF Jason Heyward (owed $86M through 2023) and $21.5M Cash considerations for RHP Johnathan Stiever
Acquire DH JD Martinez (owed $62.4M through 2022) for OF Blake Rutherford and 1B Gavin Sheets
2019 Payroll added via FA signings and trades:
Bumgarner $23M
Archer $9M
Heyward $15M (after $6M/year from Cubs)
Martinez $22M
Total added: $66M
Total Payroll: $124M
SUMMARY
This off-season plan works from a lot of angles, creating stable veteran depth in every area of need. The proposed trades work for both sides of each deal, but let's start with our big FA: MadBum. The man is the real deal, and brings postseason pedigree that is nearly unrivaled. He becomes a veteran anchor for the rotation providing invaluable experience and more importantly talent.
The White Sox famously have had trouble with free agents, but personally this offseason I see them being able to significantly bolster the roster via trade acquisitions.
The Pirates are rebuilding and are already familiar with the Sox' farm. I think a deal could be easily struck for Chris Archer, who might benefit from dropping in the rotation to the 3/4 area and being on a new club. His salary is reasonable and his upside could be big.
RF has been highlighted by Hahn as a place to upgrade. This deal will benefit both sides as the Cubs could use the payroll flexibility to upgrade other areas this offseason. Sending Stiever in the deal will make getting salary relief plausible, and Jason Heyward's offensive production, Gold Glove defense and well documented leadership will help. The defense is also a key piece of this trade because Luis Robert will have ground to makeup in CF due to below average defense in left from Eloy. Therefore, having someone with amazing range and ability in RF will be invaluable. There are younger, stronger overall trade candidates out there, but taking on Heyward's salary makes it possible for him to be had without parting with a higher prospect.
And finally, many people's plans for the White Sox were derailed when JDM did not opt out, but fear not because the Red Sox still are dead set on shedding payroll. The details may vary, but such a prospect package, and more importantly taking on the entire contract, should get the deal done.
In summation, the Sox manage to put proven veteran winners in the top half of the rotation, RF and DH, exactly where Hahn wants to upgrade. This project's budget limit leaves no room to add bullpen pieces in free agency, meaning internal candidates and potentially another acquisition would be needed to solidify the bullpen (perhaps the fabled Major league arrival of Zach Burdi?).
Overall, whether the bulk comes in Free Agency or via trades, the Sox need multiple pieces to be what we all want in 2020. Let's go go go!
