PREAMBLE
Last year I did one of these and wrote these words in my preamble:
“The White Sox are firmly in the “build” phase of the rebuild. The tear down was completed in 2017, the blueprint was laid last year, and now we have the construction crew hired and ready to get to work. Here’s how they do it. (please feel free to roast me)”
I basically stand by that for this 2020 plan. The 2019 season actually proved as something of a building year despite the fact that the Sox did not add anybody major, and as such the Sox should be ready to do the latter now. No, I am not referencing the obvious Big Two, but I think that there is reason for Sox to dream in the 1A Tier of players this year.
I would like to just include this in here to start – I am considering J.D. Matinez a non-option after he decided not to opt out of his Boston contract. Him doing that one day after meeting with new GM Chaim Bloom makes me think there is likely some kind of handshake deal there that means J.D. is going nowhere, so while some may just feel that he could be traded for at a low cost, I personally don’t think that is realistic.
I also understand that there are a few things that feel inevitable with this offseason, such as re-signing Abreu, but I am still putting my own spin on this and writing it as I would do it, not just how I expect it to go. So let’s do this. Please still feel free to roast me.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
Write “tender” or “non-tender” after each player and their projected 2020 salaries. Feel free to offer explanation afterward if necessary.
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M – Non-tender
- This is not an easy decision for me, but I just can’t justify paying Colome this much with the iffy peripheral numbers. I plan on addressing the back end of the bullpen later, anyway. NO PEEKING.
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M – Non-tender
- James McCann, $4.9M – Tender
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M – Tender
- Leury García, $4M - Tender
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M – Tender
- Josh Osich, $1M – already decided, they let him go
- Ryan Goins, $900K – he’s already gone
CLUB OPTIONS
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout – already taken care of
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Try to retain, or let go?
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) – QUALIFY: 1 year, $17.8M
- I have seen many people sign Abreu to multi-year contracts. While I can understand deals in the 2-to-3 year range, I have to be honest and say that I am not comfortable extending Abreu beyond 2020 just yet. Gavin Sheets might force the issue next season if he doesn’t get traded, and Andrew Vaughn didn’t get picked third overall for no reason. I’d give Abreu a qualifying offer, dare him to turn it down, and go year-to-year with him moving forward.
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) – let go
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) – let go
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) – let go
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: C Yasmani Grandal - 4 years, $74M ($18.5M each)
This would be number one priority this offseason if I was Rick Hahn. Grandal was the 19th best player in baseball by fWAR last year, and he is one of the premier defensive catchers in baseball. He would be a boon for this young Sox pitching staff, and even if you still want McCann to catch Giolito and others exclusively, Grandal can play first at times to keep the bat in the lineup. With no qualifying offer this year, there’s no reason for the Sox to not be serious, serious players for him.
No. 2: Dellin Betances – 3 years, $27M ($7M in 2020 with vesting option for 2021-2022 at $10M each, vests at 20 appearances in 2020)
Rumor has it Kenny Williams loves Betances, and Kenny is also apparently slated to have a more active role in the Sox offseason to help convince Jerry to spend. Betances, at his best, is a near-elite reliever and maybe even one of the best in baseball. He posted a 2.22 ERA and 14.6 K/9 from 2014-2018 before having 2019 ravaged by injuries. I like the vesting option here because it allows the Sox to pay maybe a little less than Betances would normally get after a healthy season, but sets Betances up for market-level money if he does stay healthy, and 20 appearances would be easily achievable if he does. I could also see the Sox just full on committing the 3-years.
No. 3: IF Brian Dozier - 1 year, $5M
Dozier would be my every day second basemen until Nick Madrigal arrives, at which point he becomes the primary backup infielder and a solid platoon option. Dozier rakes against lefties, with a 128 wRC+ against southpaws this year. Plus, he had a .340 OBP last year, which is very welcome in these parts.
No. 4: LHP Alex Wood – 2 years, $15M ($6M in 2020 with vesting option for 2021 at $9M, vests at 90 innings pitched in 2020)
Wood is an effective pitcher who was bit by the injury bug last season. I think he’s a great cheap-buy candidate who could be a hugely effective acquisition. I am not alone in this thought, I know. I think the vesting option makes sense here because hitting 90 innings should be easy if he stays healthy, and then he gets another year at a salary closer to what the market would have paid him without his 2019 injury. I also feel 90 makes sense because Wood would be a candidate to get bumped o the bullpen when other pitchers like Michael Kopech and/or Carlos Rodon return to health. If he cannot stay healthy, it’s low risk for the Sox.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade 3B/1B Jake Burger, IF/OF Bryce Bush and RHP Alec Hansen to the Boston Red Sox for LHP David Price, OF Andrew Benintendi, and cash considerations
J.D. Martinez opting into the 2020 season puts the Red Sox in a well-documented tough position, and they haven’t been shy about their desire to shed payroll. Price is one of the easiest ways to do that, as he is owed $32M in each of the next three years and as part of this deal I have Red Sox agreeing to eat $5M of that per year, so it’s $27M. That is still a huge money cost for the White Sox, but the low prospect cost here plus getting Benintendi as the sweetener makes it worth it. Burger is a sunk cost as a former first round pick, Hansen looks like he will never return to what he once was, and Bush struggled in A-ball and already has had to move to the outfield almost full time. I think parting with them to get Price and Benintendi would be wise.
Price was actually pretty good when healthy in 2019. Across 22 starts, he recorded a 4.28 ERA with a 3.62 FIP in 107.1 innings. He also struck out 28% of batters he faced while walking just 7%, which resulted in 10.73 K/9 and 2.68 BB/9. He also induced grounders on 41% of batted balls. He is no longer the ace he once was, but he is still very good.
Ken Rosenthal suggested Benintendi could be a sweetener for whoever takes on Price earlier this week, and while there is a lot of name value here as a former top prospect, the actual results Benitendi put up in 2019 were average overall. He doesn’t bring huge power, but he slashed .266/.343/.431 in 2019, and while that OBP is what really pops to me, he is a largely average hitter – in 2019 he posted a 100 wRC+ which is quite literally league average, and Baseball Savant has him in the 40th percentile for exit velocity, 42nd for Hard Hit %, 59th for xwOBA and xBA, and 56th for xSLG. He got some bad defensive marks as well, but I am not sure how much playing left field in Boston, a tough pace to do it, impacts that. Overall, bringing in Benintendi and switching him to RF gives the Sox a reliable lefty outfielder that they quite frankly desperately need. He isn’t a lineup changer, but as I said he’s a lefty you can rely on to get on base, which would be very welcome on the South Side, and if you can get him to repeat his 2018 performance moving forward you could have a potential impact bat here. Entering his first arbitration year, MLB Trade Rumors has him at $4.9M.
No. 2: Trade RHP Reynaldo Lopez and OF Blake Rutherford to the Pittsburgh Pirates for 1B Josh Bell
I think this deal makes a lot of sense. The name value here probably makes the Sox return feel a little light, but 1B’s are not exactly a premium asset. Bell had a huge 2019, but he’s still not in the Freeman/Rizzo/Goldschmidt conversation among the game’s best 1Bs. Plus he has three years of control and is a Scott Boras client, so you know you’re not getting more than those three years. Personally I am not very high on Lopez - and I view him as a future bullpen guy, but I am not sure his stuff will allow him to miss enough bats out there either. Rutherford still has some name recognition as a prospect that might carry some weight for Pittsburgh, and there is still good chance he can become something. With him needing 40-man protection this winter, though, I am not in love with the idea of keeping him around. Pittsburgh presents better career paths for both guys, and the Pirates are trading 3 years of a good 1B for 4 years of a pitcher and an outfield prospect, both of whom are former top-100 prospects.
Bell is yet another high-OBP switch hitter to add to the lineup, and he brings the welcome lefty power that the Sox badly need. Considering I think J.D. Martinez is no longer an option, adding Bell is a nice shift in terms of the “patient power hitter” profile – Bell actually walked more often and struck out less often than Martinez in 2019, and actually slugged slightly better. Granted, 2019 was the first time in his career he’d slugged over .500, but he still projects well to continue to hit for power (even a slight decrease from last year would probably still see him hit around 30 bombs) and he has never posted an OBP below .334 in his career. He and Abreu will take turns playing first and DH-ing. He is projected $5.9M in arbitration per MLB Trade Rumors.
No. 3: Trade OF Luis Basabe and RHP Kyle Kubat to the Toronto Blue Jays for RHP Ken Giles
I told you we’d address the back of the bullpen. Giles is better than Colome by almost every metric in the game, and with just one year of control left I don’t think it’d take much to acquire him. Basabe has struggled to stay healthy of late, but he still has a relatively high ceiling. The Blue Jays are a rebuilding team and Basabe seems like the kind of player that they should be adding at this point – good tools, lots of talent, still young and ultra-controllable. Giles is projected $8.4M in 2020 per MLB Trade Rumors, which is way more palatable than Colome’s money.
CONTRACT EXTENSION
Sign Lucas Giolito to a six-year, $77.5M contract extension with two team options
I was planning on including a Giolito extension in my Offseason Plan to begin with, but wasn’t sure how to make it look. So I am just stealing Josh Nelson’s from his Plan, because it makes sense and also requires less thinking for me. That pays him $1M in 2020, $6.5M in ’21, $15M each in ’22 and ’23, and $20M in ’24, ’25, ’26, and ’27, with the latter two being the option years.
SUMMARY
Here’s how my roster shakes out in the end
C – Grandal, McCann, Collins
1B – Abreu/Bell
2B – Madrigal, Dozier
SS – Anderson, Garcia
3B – Moncada
OF – Jimenez, Robert, Benintendi, Engel, Garcia
DH – Abreu/Bell
SP – Giolito, Cease, Kopech, Price, Wood, Rodon*
Bullpen – Giles, Betances, Herrera, Bummer, Fry, Cordero, Ruiz
Optimal Lineup
- Benintendi RF
- Moncada 3B
- Robert CF
- Jimenez LF
- Bell 1B/DH
- Grandal C
- Abreu 1B/DH
- Anderson SS
- Madrigal 2B
TOTAL Payroll – $136M – Okay, so I broke the rules a little bit, but I think that having Kenny Williams on my side helping convince Jerry to open up the pocketbook a bit more makes it feasible. There are also a few work-arounds here to get back down into the permitted rage, like perhaps trading Kelvin Herrera somewhere with a lower prospect for “cash considerations” just to get rid of that money.
One thing I think serves as something of a win with this plan is that I avoided trading away some guys that are commonly considered potential trade pieces, like Jonathan Stiever and Gavin Sheets, and they might be able to be used for more acquisitions at the deadline.
With my plan I believe the Sox have a lineup that could be quite dangerous with a high-upside pitching staff. I think this team would be competitive at the very least and maybe even a potential division title contender.
