Alex Colomé is doing all he can

As we approach the end of May, we can at least say the White Sox are doing a better job of holding our interest. The White Sox opened the 2018 season 9-27, killing all the good vibes from Rick Renteria's first season. Renteria isn't much more of a fan favorite these days, but the White Sox are 27-29.

That's progress, and in the vicinity of where the respectable teams are. Last year, the Oakland Athletics were 28-28 around this time. They went on to win 97 games. The Dodgers were 26-30, and they won 92. The Indians began to separate from the Central at the end of May, but they started the year 24-25.

The Sox are only two games back in the wild card race, and they can climb into a tie with Cleveland for second in the AL Central with a win tonight. That speaks as much to the Indians' issues, but still -- progress!

Of course, the White Sox are heavily outperforming their run differential. While their record is 27-29, their Pythagorean record is 23-33 because they've been outscored by 47 runs. That's why they haven't done much to escape their consensus 70-win projection from the preseason despite performing at a 78-win clip during the first third of the season, because their run differential says they're playing like a 66-win team.

Pythag record doesn't always mean regression is coming, though. It just means that something fluky is afoot underneath it all. Sometimes that fluke can last a full season, especially when it's happening in the bullpen.

And specific to these White Sox, Alex Colomé is happening to them.

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Colomé has saved 11 games in 11 chances this season, and he's 100 percent for legitimate reasons. He's allowed just 13 baserunners over 22⅔ innings while striking out 21. He's given up two homers, but they were in games where he was merely getting work in.

In fact, most of the offense generated off Colomé has been in games he couldn't affect.

Conveniently, Colome's 22⅔ innings have been equally divided between games he could save and games he couldn't. Here's what he's done in non-save situations:

Now I could've put his stat line in save situations in the above table, but I want to generate drama. I was not ready for the disparity when a save is on the line.

Ready?

Hell, Colomé was throwing a no-hitter in save situations until Monday, holding opponents to an 0-for-32 before Kansas City's Alex Gordon shot a single through the right side. You can cut Colomé some slack considering that was his third appearance in two days.

Opponents are 7-for-38 against Colomé in non-save situations. When a save is on the line, opponents are 1-for-35 against Colomé. This would seem fluky -- and 1-for-35 always is no matter what -- but then you look at Colomé's strikeout rate and see that, hey, maybe his effort or stuff indeed jumps a notch.

However it happens, the White Sox all of a sudden are unbeatable in late innings, when they were thoroughly beatable before. Here's how they're faring when they hold a lead entering the second half of a ballgame:

That's crazy, yet it also reflects the kind of breaks the White Sox attempted to make for themselves over the winter. Manny Machado wouldn't have made the White Sox an instant contender, but Manny Machado plus a bullpen that coughed up far fewer leads could maybe sneak into wild card contention. At the time Rick Hahn traded Omar Narvaez for Colomé and signed Kelvin Herrera, it looked like he was trying to set up a way to beat projections for a year as a reward for a huge outlay in resources. It just so happened that Jerry Reinsdorf never made that outlay, so Colomé and Herrera are the only things Hahn has to show for his winter, save the James McCann signing (and Herrera's been a mess since his back spasms).

As a result, the White Sox have a big head start on their projections, but they're still under .500. Some of these late-inning losses are coming, and it's not all on Colomé. Somehow the White Sox are 21-1 when leading after six innings in a season where Herrera and Jace Fry are major liabilities. They've been replaced by Evan Marshall and Aaron Bummer, but assuming regression sets in, will they get help from the laggers?

That's an open-ended question, and one that makes it difficult to see how they can absorb those eventual late-inning losses without upgrades elsewhere. The obvious answer is to get more leads so they don't need every one they have. The offense is reliant on improvement from the talent on hand, but a tweak or two to the rotation -- Dylan Cease? an opener? two openers? -- before the good opponents show up in June might also help to keep the dream alive.