Despite the warranted disenchantment with the White Sox, a few national writers aren't nearly as down on the prospects of a team that struggled to push its prospects over the finish line in 2019, and didn't augment it with upside from outside.
Hey, perhaps we're too close. Maybe the White Sox have composed a potential masterpiece, but all we can see are a few random smears of paint.
Or, taking it down a notch, maybe the AL Central is really, really terrible, and the Sox will look better than they are as the result of forced perspective.
Cleveland’s big moves this winter were trading catcher Yan Gomes for marginal prospects and letting outfielder Michael Brantley and relievers Andrew Miller and Cody Allen depart as free agents without doing much to replace any of them. Cleveland’s lineup thus falls off dramatically after twin MVP candidates José Ramírez and Francisco Lindor, creating the potential for a complete offensive collapse should either of those two miss significant time this season. Lindor is already expected to get a late start to the season due to a calf strain suffered in camp. Even if both fulfill expectations, the Indians have left the door wide open, and it’s a testament to just how weak this division is that there may not be another team capable of walking through it.
The Royals and Tigers are in the same situation as the White Sox, and the former 1) finished in worse shape than the Sox and 2) just lost Sal Perez for the season to Tommy John surgery. The Sox went 18-20 against these two teams last year, so one can't assume being a step ahead in the rebuild process means they'll be a step ahead in the standings.
However it happened, a few national voices see the White Sox as being better than the consensus projection of 70-92. Jonah Keri took the over on the White Sox in his debut column at The Athletic, and that over/under was at 74.5 due to the lines being set in advance of the major free agents finding homes:
This is still a team with real upside compared to the 100-loss disaster of 2018. In Carlos Rodón, Reynaldo López, and Lucas Giolito, the Sox boast three starting pitchers 26 or younger with legitimate breakout potential. Yoan Moncada was rated the number-two prospect in all of baseball just two years ago, so his time could be coming soon too. Meanwhile, Eloy Jiménez owns the most major league-ready bat of any prospect not named Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and could instantly turbocharge an offense that finished 23rd in the majors last season by park-adjusted metrics (with pitcher hitting stripped out).
Meanwhile, in Baseball America's season preview, Matt Eddy picked the White Sox as his biggest surprise of 2019:
Matt Eddy: White Sox. Chicago has young major leaguers with untapped potential, including middle infielders Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson and young starters Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez. The White Sox also have prospects who could factor in 2019, from Eloy Jimenez and Nick Madrigal in the lineup to Dylan Cease and Dane Dunning in the rotation. I could see things heading north much faster than expected on the South Side, especially if the White Sox were to add a premium free agent bat.
This prediction might lose some of its power if it was written well in advance of its Tuesday publication, because Dane Dunning is battling a recurrence of his arm problems and the "premium free agent bat" didn't materalize this winter.
But here's his Carlos Collazo, his BA colleague, coming in with a fresh prediction a day later:
AL Central
— Carlos Collazo (@CarlosACollazo) March 6, 2019
1. Indians
2. White Sox
3. Twins
4. Royals
5. Tigers
AL West
1. Astros
2. Angels
3. Athletics
4. Mariners
5. Rangers
Between Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson and Lucas Giolito, the White Sox have enough guys who are supposed to be far better than they showed in 2018, and that could generate a big boost in wins from within. Throw in Jose Abreu coming off hard-to-duplicate maladies and Eloy Jimenez upgrading one of the corners while 40 percent of the division lags, and there's definitely a path to the mid-70s.
One cause for conservative estimates? The White Sox don't expect to have much immediate help in the minors behind Jimenez -- and Jimenez doesn't have the soundest health record himself -- so the aforementioned candidates for clicking need to do so.
By random fortune alone, the White Sox should benefit from fewer things going so wrong. The question is how many things will go right, allowing the front office to construct a team around established, productive forces under team control since it's not going to land major free agents. If Moncada settles into a career as an adequate-but-frustrating regular and others follow suit, that might be good enough for the 2019 AL Central, but the big picture will still be lacking.
