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Analysis

Avisail Garcia finds soft landing spot in Tampa Bay

Avisail Garcia (Keith Allison / Flickr)

After six trying seasons with the White Sox -- and even the successful season was frustrating -- Avisail Garcia exhausted the benefit of the doubt.

Somehow, he landed in one of the few places that could make you rethink his future. He's joining the Tampa Bay Rays on a deal that guarantees him less than half of his arbitration estimate:

Garcia hit just .236/.281/.438 during a season that was undermined by a knee issue on Opening Day. The unprecedented power to the pull field he showed despite the leg problems made it a little tempting to let him ride out his South Side career through the original team control period, but the combination of injuries and limitations made it too poor a bet for the projected $8 million salary.

It's always worth noting when the Rays come calling, because they have a knack for getting the random 30-homer season out of a player.

In 2016, Brad Miller exploded in a full-time role ...

    • 2014-15 (avg): .241/.310/.385, 10 HR over 454 PA
    • 2016: .243/.304/.482, 30 HR over 601 PA

... followed by Logan Morrison in 2017 ...

    • 2011-16 (avg): .240/.318/.412, 14 HR over 411 PA
    • 2017: .246/.353/.516, 38 HR over 601 PA

... and C.J. Cron in 2018:

    • 2015-17 (avg): .263/.311/448, 16 HR over 407 PA
    • 2018: .253/.323/.493, 30 HR over 560 PA

And Garcia, who set a career high with 19 homers in 2018 despite playing just 93 games, would be a perfect candidate for that club, at least if likely DH platoon partner Ji-Man Choi doesn't beat him to it.

Prior to 2018, Garcia made his difficult living coming up with extra-base hits to the opposite field, but he figured out how to forge a more traditional power path last season.

The Rays have seen the power first-hand, at least when you look at his home runs by stadium:

    1. Guaranteed Rate Field, 32 homers over 295 games
    2. Comerica Park, 8 homers over 70 games
    3. Tropicana Field, 6 homers over 16 games
    4. Target Field, 4 homers over 41 games
    5. Four tied with 3

That number includes two in one game on Aug. 5 last season:


The Rays needed right-handed power, and Garcia has shown an ability to thump lefties, hitting .367/.406/.537 against southpaws over the last two seasons. Maybe the Rays could've set their sights higher, but it's a great landing spot for Garcia, and I can see him either setting career highs or playing his part in a highly cost-effective platoon with Choi.

That thought process sounds fatalistic, but I doubt there'll be pangs of remorse. Garcia's not a great bet to stay healthy, and even if he does, the Rays have a history of discarding DHs without selling high. Morrison and Cron both ended up with Minnesota after their breakouts, with the latter getting designated for assignment. Corey Dickerson got the Cron treatment the year before, with his DFA resulting in a trade to Pittsburgh. Hell, the White Sox might be able to get Garcia right back if anybody misses him enough, although apparently the Twins have auto-dibs.

Whatever remaining doubt or concerns will be completely eliminated if the Sox land Manny Machado under the "Who Cares? We Got Manny" bylaw in the team-fan CBA. Without Machado, maybe you can scrutinize the $8 million for Yonder Alonso and compare him to a similarly paid player over the course of the season. But if Machado's in the fold, then Alonso is more of a concept than a DH, Garcia merits a shrug, and instead you can direct your attention to the Rays potentially bringing a different White Sox dream to life.

ST. PETERSBURG — The Rays are interested in former White Sox infielder Matt Davidson as a potential two-way player.

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