Some reporters' ears are still ringing from the concussive sounds of the high-fives Mike Shirley was giving out at the MLB Draft Lottery last December.
Seven months and very few nights of seven hours of sleep later, the White Sox scouting director still professes enthusiasm about the highest profile assignment of his career to date.
"I don't know who it is yet, that's the best part," Shirley said Wednesday. "We're going to keep working at every moment to figure that out."
But if the process of choosing between UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky ("He controls the zone, there's contact and there's damage, and he plays shortstop"), high school infielder Grady Emerson ("elite high school player") and Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey ("a supreme athlete who really could define the catcher position and be foundational defensively") has been a labor of love, the emphasis right now is on the labor.
"It’s been overwhelming in a positive and negative way," Shirley said. "When I talk about those three candidates, we all thought Roch was the favorite. Grady played great. He earned his way into the mix. Roch held serve. He actually handled it really well and that’s one thing I told him in person -- first off, you handled this extremely well. We met him at the combine. To hold serve, keep himself in this mix, it was impressive to watch him go do that. I don’t want to pick 1-1 again. I want to pass this on to someone else. I want the White Sox to win a championship here real soon."
It might be surprising to hear Shirley argue that Cholowsky held serve in a season that began with him as a publicly projected lock for the first overall pick, only for Emerson and Lackey to enter the conversation. But he professes ignorance on the shifting nature of public mock drafts, and much of his session was spent talking about how their scouting process has flattened the gaps between the trio of viable 1-1 candidates.
He pointed out that Cholowsky's time with Team USA and Lackey's private workout with the team have offered enough wood bat data for the Sox to be comfortable with. Shirley argued that Emerson has faced enough mid-90s velocity on the showcase circuit for them to discuss his "elite high school hit tool" with similar confidence to hitters who have faced better competition. The White Sox have lauded playoff performance in their draft process in the past, and Shirley says they would have loved the chance to see both Cholowsky and Lackey get deeper in the postseason, but upsets happen. Though, they did get to watch Emerson play in the TAPPS Division II State Championship game in Texas. Alas, his team also lost.
"When you’re picking one, they all have that -- they have ceilings, they have present value, they have tools, they have all the things you’re looking for," Shirley said. "You're always scouting players with one eye open when you're not on the clock. The minute the player gets on the clock and it's time to go, the evaluation process gets a lot deeper. Now we open both eyes. Now we start to dig into you.
"Who are you, what is your makeup, what are your tools? What are your holes? What's the window for us to take? Nobody's perfect. Whoever we take is not perfect. But it's not about what they are today, it's about what they're going to be two to three years from now when they show up here at the major league level. That's that scout's view, that's R&D's department, that's a player development inclusion as well to make sure we're doing that."
Shirley made the emphasis on inter-departmental cooperation ("player development is as heavy in the draft room as we’re blending this as the scouts are") and objective measurements clear--bat speed, force plate measurements, batted ball data, etc. He espoused director of hitting Ryan Fuller's three principles (swing decisions, contact, damage) repeatedly while discussing a choice between three position player prospects. But Shirley also specified that the final decision on 1-1 belongs to general manager Chris Getz, while reiterating that the Sox's evaluation of the best player in the draft should be agnostic of the major league roster or any ownership proposals to disqualify high school players from the draft in the next CBA.
That said, the White Sox have a whole ~$17.6 million bonus pool to try to maximize, and Shirley did offer a scenario where that could impact the first overall pick.
"It’s not about the money, it’s about who is the best player," Shirley said. "It’s a little bit out of our hands if the agencies or representation of the player ask for a record bonus that we are not comfortable with. That would be the only indication that may make us pivot a little bit, what the actual costs were."
But Cholowsky and Emerson are both represented by the same agency, so it's not like Shirley is expecting one camp to go rogue in a manner that can't be anticipated.
"We're working hard with the group, with them to figure it out. I think we'll come to the best solution and they'll be great partners at the end of the day."
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Shirley's observations with how Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) money has altered the landscape for drafting college players have been pointed over the last couple of years, and Wednesday was no exception. The positive spin of it is that he views it as creating good opportunities to land high school players, in the vein of nabbing Matthew Boughton for $197,500 in the 11th round last season, which was well under their initial expectations.
"The biggest challenge a high school player is facing is how old college baseball has gotten," Shirley said. "'Am I going to play as a freshman? How long will I wait? Where’s my development at? If my goal is to be a major leaguer, when do I want to start?' It’s on each individual to make that decision."
The less positive interpretation is that he expects negotiations with middle-round collegiate talent to be a bloodbath, where the Sox are battling for players with major conference programs that can also make six-figure offers. That he threw in an aside about Cholowsky turning down a large NIL offer from a school trying to pry him away from UCLA before last season seemed like an attempt to warn the public how fierce the environment has become.
"There are guys taking themselves out of the draft as we speak to run with the NIL money one more year," Shirley said. "On Day 2, it’s going to be a problem. There’s enough budget at the big programs to mach what you offer them. If you want to take a guy in the 12th round and give him $200,000, the university is just going to offer him [$200,000] to come back to school. The player has the choice of do I want to be a professional baseball player or a college player?"
Who the Sox have convinced to choose the former path will be revealed by Sunday, and they're obviously not expecting a protracted post-draft wait for players to sign. The team's post-draft camp in Charlotte begins next week.
