Our overstuffed mailbag continues with more questions about the outfield, the next step in the quest for a new ballpark, Chris Getz's misspeaking, and lessons learned from springs over the years.
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With James having been on site can he give an update on the real prospects for Braden Montgomery? If Braden doesn’t at least become a league average outfielder starting in 2027 it will be years before we contend.
Mark M.
James: Montgomery is simply incredible to see in person. He has very loud physical tools combined with universally lauded makeup, work capacity and a “cerebral” approach to the sport. He knows what he’s flawed at, understands the specific components of improving it and is working very hard to actualize it. His private hitting coach modeled Montgomery’s swing heavily off of Bobby Witt Jr., which carries more heft because his private hitting coach also works with Bobby Witt Jr. Whenever Ryan Fuller discusses a developmental point for Montgomery, like the groundball tendencies of his left-handed swing, he prefaces it with “and Braden knows this better than anyone....”
With those ingredients, you could say “This guy is going to figure it out eventually and be a monster,” and it’s hard to really pick that argument apart, though “he has to be at least league average by ‘27 or the White Sox are doomed” is the sort of specific conditional he could struggle to fulfill. He's the sort of talent where a season of looking bad, maybe two, don't preclude him from being awesome at some point.
Montgomery whiffs a lot. He whiffed a lot in college and whiffed a lot last year, and posted a sub-70 percent contact rate in Double-A. Being under that threshold is usually an indicator of real bust potential for hitters. It’s not a stat that usually improves much as hitters advance up the levels, and the big leaguers who whiff that much are often the elite sluggers in the sport (Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber, Shohei Ohtani), but that’s because who anyone whiffs that much that isn’t hitting 30 bombs on the regular doesn’t typically make it. So the combination of premium ingredients and statistical red flags make him an easy prospect to be all-in on or queasy about. There’s a real chance it doesn’t click. If it does click, it might be the way a landmine clicks before detonating.
Jim: One thing I'm curious about with Montgomery is whether switch-hitting has any effect on lagging contact rates. On one hand, it could take some time for swings to even out, and he'll pull out of the sub-70s into a more ordinary kind of below-average. On the other, perhaps they never even out, and having to give up switch-hitting poses its own kind of issues.
I also want to relay this comment we received from Michael R. that vouches for one theme of our Montgomery coverage:
Not a question but just a comment. I live in Phoenix and went to watch Sox practice a couple weeks ago. Sadly, I didn’t get to meet James. I was, however, super impressed with Braden Montgomery. That man is RIPPED! Wow. Just thought this should be shared in case other readers are not aware. LOL.
Speaking of Michael...
Looks like the Sox have lost out on the 78 with the Fire breaking ground. Any whispers or insights on a new Sox stadium? Seems like the last I heard was a passing comment a few months ago from Ishbia inviting Pope Leo to a new stadium. With Bears and Chicago Park District about to ask for tax breaks and funds, and the Fire actually building, seems like the Sox are getting left behind.
Michael R.
Josh: At this moment it’s all gossip from Bridgeport.
Looking at what Related Midwest is planning to build around the new Fire stadium, it’s hard to imagine how a baseball stadium could fit on this plot of land, which is now slated for a mix of housing and retail intended to create a new neighborhood district. Yet, as reported on WGN before the ceremonial shovels hit the ground, a louder outcry is emerging from Chinatown residents. The core question keeps rising: Is this development actually going to provide affordable housing, or is it setting the stage for gentrification?
If this project drives up housing costs, not just in Chinatown but spilling into neighboring Bridgeport, South Loop, and Bronzeville, what happens to residents already feeling squeezed by rising rents? With longtime neighbors at risk of being priced out, it’s clear that while the Fire secures a new stadium, not every neighbor welcomes this development.
If Justin Ishbia chooses to develop the Bridgeport parking lots into mixed-use housing and retail, he will have strong support from Alderman Nicole Lee. However, some Bridgeport residents, especially near Armour Square Park, may resist. It reflects a dynamic in which opportunities for major development clash with the reluctance of some longtime residents, because it drives real estate costs up for both housing and small businesses.
But when Ishbia takes over as the new chairman, there are two huge factors in building a new stadium in Chicagoland: Who is the governor of Illinois, and the mayor of Chicago? Today, it’s JB Pritzker and Brandon Johnson. When Ishbia has control, he could be working with entirely political personnel rather than the ones Jerry Reinsdorf currently has. We know the current administration will help out with infrastructure and planning development costs, but no money for actually building a stadium. That’s why the Fire are getting a stadium at Project 78, and the White Sox are not.
Jim: If an Ishbia ownership was in the works, then it really didn't make sense for Reinsdorf to do the driving on a ballpark that would define a big part of the franchise's fortunes for the next several decades, especially given how many mistakes Reinsdorf made in the building of the ballpark they apparently can't wait to leave. My sense is that Related Midwest sensed an opportunity, and the Sox were happy to go along for the ride in hopes of free money. Now that Related is satisfied with a stadium of some sort going there, and now that there's a range of expiration dates on Reinsdorf's tenure, it's better to let the next guy figure it out, especially if it's going to involve his money.
You guys probably already addressed this and I missed it, but if not, the whole Acuña is a switch hitter thing was rather embarrassing from my perspective. Do you feel like our GM addressed it adequately?
Matt H.
Jim: We have touched upon it here and there, but I do think he answered it adequately, I do. Had he introduced “switch hitter” at any point during his lengthy initial comments about Acuña's utility, then I'd wonder if he actually understood the return for Luis Robert Jr. That it crept into his rhetoric afterward makes it easier to buy that he has a default starter pack for discussing up-the-middle versatility, and it's one he has to update.
Either way, I appreciate that he issued a public statement about it, and chose self-deprecation over a defensive stance. I feel like other too-online GMs would have issued an on-background explanation that results in a few beat writers posting similarly worded tweets within seconds of each other. Getz laughing it off might not win any converts at the moment, but it's a lot less likely to be thrown back in his face, which is another example of choosing a different path than Williams or Hahn.
1. What’s the most important thing you’ve *ever* learned from Spring Training?
2. What’s the one thing you are most confident you’ve learned from *this* Spring Training?
– Steve v.
Jim: I haven't seen enough from a distance to have an answer for No. 2, but between Eloy Jiménez tearing his pec on an outfield wall and Jake Burger rupturing his achilles going to first base, it's OK to give less than 100 percent in games that don't count. Sam Antonacci probably hates me for saying this.
James: In my second year on the beat in spring 2018, Danny Farquhar decided the best way to explain what he had been talking shit about in catch play (he kept saying “I taught Giolito everything he knows,” but in a just kidding manner) was to break down what the Rays organization had told him about fastball carry, how it was measured, what it looks like, what were the known causes of it, how it affected other pitches. It blew my mind, and didn’t seem like I was entirely alone on that inside the White Sox complex. It changed my career, probably my life. When I visited The Athletic corporate headquarters later that year, the co-founder of the company showed me a bunch of data, which White Sox employees had registered email accounts, and a chart displaying how that story performed compared to everything else I had written and said something like “You need to write more stories like that!” The corporate strategy changed countless times since then, but I’m still following that advice.
As far as this spring, Will Venable saying players should look at their first steps the way they watch video of their swing or their delivery was pretty interesting, but probably not the oh wow turns out I didn’t understand baseball before this type of revelation of Farquhar. Hopefully I don’t have blind spots that big anymore. Vibes certainly seem high, but that’s not usually the thing to place a ton of weight in this time of year. Plenty of guys look bigger and stronger (Teel, Bonemer, Schultz) or slimmer (Montgomery, Benintendi, Carson Jacobs), but you usually need to wait to see how that pays off. It’s not really learning so much as it resonates more when you see it up close, but Murakami seems very committed to this project. This is a challenge he’s wanted for the last three seasons so he’s obviously amped up, but he seems to view immersing himself with his new team to be part of it.
