PREAMBLE
We’re in year 2 of a 30 year rebuild. I’m going over budget. Here goes:
COACHING STAFF
- Hitting coach: Dustin Lind
- Pitching coach: Ben Brewster
Honestly, no idea. Ben Brewster owns Tread Athletics and was a Sox minor leaguer. Dustin Lind is a former player who has worked under Kevin Long for 2 years.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Mike Tauchman: Tender
- Steven Wilson: Non-tender
- Derek Hill: Non-tender
Trying to increase velocity in the bullpen, so Wilson is out.
The Sox like Tauchman for his veteran leadership. He’s also as much of a Chicagoan as any kid who made the Metra a living hell during Lollapalooza weekend, so he’s the starting right fielder.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Luis Robert Jr.: Buy out for $2 million
- Martín Perez: Buy out for $1.5 million
The trade deadline logic was if the Sox weren’t going to pick up Robert’s option, they would have traded him at the deadline. The deadline comp for Robert is Cedric Mullins, who netted Raimon Gómez, Anthony Nunez and Chandler Marsh. If you don’t know who these guys are, that’s the point. None of them are on the Orioles top prospects list. If that was the return, I’m happy the Sox passed. It doesn’t mean the Sox need to pay Luis Robert $20,000,000 next year. I’m also buying into Dan Szymborski’s report that Robert has no market, so I’m giving Robert the Carlos Rodon treatment of non-tendering him and then offering him a lower salary ($11,000,000) and saving some cash while motivating a toolsy player into hopefully a strong bounce-back year. Martin Perez’s overall ceiling and the fact that he was out for most of the year doesn’t justify a $10,000,000 price tag.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Kyle Schwarber (5 yrs, $130 million) [Spotrac Market Value: 4 yr, $99.6 mil]
The Sox could use a lot of thump. Schwarber will likely get a qualifying offer so this will cost the Sox $500k in international bonus dollars (they aren’t rumored to be in on the top 5 international prospects, so $500k less doesn’t really matter) and their 2nd round pick (they’re favored to get 1-1 and pick Roch Cholowsky so the draft is already a success without a 2nd round pick).
It’s a lot of cash, but the Sox also reported that Justin Ishbia will be providing cash infusions to the Sox in 2026 and 2027. I’m going to treat this cash infusion as Ishbia pays $21 million to Schwarber this year while Jerry pays the remaining $5 million.
No. 2: Max Muncy (2 yrs, $34 million) [Spotrac Market Value: 2 yrs, $29.15 mil]
Unclear what the Dodgers will do with his option since he’s still productive. I’m hoping they go the Justin Turner route here.
With the cash infusion, I have Ishbia paying $15 million and Jerry paying $2 million. It’s not my money, who cares.
No. 3: Brandon Woodruff (3 yrs, $48 million) [Spotrac Market Value: 2 yrs, $34.15 mil]
Re-invented his arsenal after coming back from injury and still shoves. Missed the end of the year due to a lat strain, which might hinder his market a bit.
No. 4: Tyler Anderson (2 yrs, $20 million) ($8m in year 1; $12 mil option or $2 mil buyout year 2) [Spotrac Market Value: 1 yr, $7 mil]
Underrated veteran left-handed starter. Martin Perez replacement.
No. 5: Gregory Soto (2 yrs, $18 million) [Spotrac Market Value: 2 yrs, $14.09 mil]
Fireball lefty reliever that we’ll probably use as a closer.
No. 6: Takahiro Norimoto (2 yrs, $8 million) [Spotrac Market Value: N/A]
35 year old guy coming from the NPB. Sits 97 and induces a lot of grounders. This is my Steven Wilson replacement.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade Bryan Ramos to the Pirates for Thomas Harrington
Ramos is out of options and I don’t really have a spot for him. He also could get claimed by a few teams ahead of Pittsburgh in the waiver order. Pittsburgh currently does not have a third basemen, but they do have a lot of pitching depth. Harrington did a horrible job in his big league audition last year but has a similar prospect profile to Davis Martin and Sean Burke. We’ll slot him in Charlotte and he'll be depth.
No. 2: Trade Korey Lee to the Padres for Tirso Ornelas
The Padres need catching help and love trading with the White Sox. Ornelas is an outfielder with 3 straight minor league seasons where he posted over an 800 OPS. The Padres called him up at the end of last year and he went 1-14 with 2 walks and 2 strikeouts. He has an option remaining in 2026, so he’ll start in AAA and likely get called up when the Sox move either Luis Robert or Mike Tauchman at the deadline.
No. 3: Trade Sean Burke to the Cubs for Kevin Alcantara
Alcantara is blocked by PCA, out of options and just underwent a sports hernia surgery. If the Cubs don’t sign Kyle Tucker, Owen Caissie is probably ahead of Alcantara in the pecking order anyway. The Cubs may be interested in a cost-controlled pitcher due to the fact that they have a lot of pre-arb offensive players in need of extensions. I like Burke but he’s not great and I’m not seeing a front of the rotation type ceiling. Burke also played with Matt Shaw in college, so there’s a relationship there if the Cubs want to have a guy in the dugout to maybe tell Shaw to not go to a professional shit-stirrer’s funeral during a playoff push.
Alcantara could be a starting or platoon centerfielder for the next 6 years. He’ll start on the roster as a backup, with most of his starts coming in center while we occasionally throw Luis Robert in a corner or give him rest days.
SUMMARY
1 – C – Kyle Teel (L) ($800,000)
2 – CF – Luis Robert Jr. (R) ($11,000,000)
3 – DH – Kyle Schwarber (L) ($26,000,000)
4 – 1B – Max Muncy (R) ($17,000,000)
5 – SS – Colson Montgomery (L) ($800,000)
6 – 2B – Lenyn Sosa (R) ($800,000)
7 – LF – Andrew Benintendi (L) ($17,100,000)
8 – 3B – Miguel Vargas (R) ($800,000)
9 – RF – Mike Tauchman (L) ($3,400,000)
Bench:
C – Edgar Quero (S) ($800,000)
INF – Chase Meidroth (R) ($800,000)
INF – Curtis Mead (L) ($800,000)
OF – Kevin Alcantara (R) ($800,000)
The catching situation is really promising. We can work in days where Schwarber is playing left or Teel is playing left or first so we can get Quero in the lineup a lot more than a typical reserve player.
Infield can be platooned since Sosa has reverse splits. Colson should get a ton of at bats.
Outfield is pretty expensive for the talent level, but its basically guaranteed that Robert and/or Tauchman will be gone at the deadline and replaced with Braden Montgomery. Benintendi could also be gone at the deadline as well.
Baldwin goes to the minors because he has a few options to spare but he’s probably first man up in the event of injury since he can play anywhere.
Starting Pitchers: Brandon Woodruff ($16,000,000), Shane Smith ($800,000), Tyler Anderson ($8,000,000), Davis Martin ($800,000), Grant Taylor ($800,000)
It may be a little early to stretch Taylor, but he probably has the best stuff in the system so this should be the move at some point. Would have preferred trading Cannon to Burke and keeping Taylor in the bullpen but I don’t think Cannon has trade value.
We also have a few guys returning from injury (Drew Thorpe, Ky Bush, Mason Adams, Juan Carela) and a few guys in the high minors in their top 10 prospects (Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, Tanner McDougal, Christian Oppor).
Bullpen: Gregory Soto ($9,000,000), Takahiro Norimoto ($4,000,000), Mike Vasil ($800,000), Peyton Pallette ($800,000), Jordan Leasure ($800,000), Wikelman Gonzalez ($800,000), Brandon Eisert ($800,000), Fraser Ellard ($800,000)
Similar to last year but with a little more velocity. A lot of the guys in the bullpen have options so a lot of the 40-man depth from last year is hanging out in Charlotte ready to come up if need be and Prelander Berroa is coming back from injury.
Payroll: $128.6 million including buyouts
I’m going over budget for a few reasons. 1) This payroll falls outside of the top 10 MLB payrolls; 2) the luxury tax was $241 million in 2025 and is expected to be higher than that this year, which means the Sox can add Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani and still not reach the luxury tax threshold; 3) Justin Ishbia, the man who’s company gave a max contract to Brad Beal and had enough of a nest egg to not regret it, has agreed to provide a cash infusion to the team this year – and the way I have the cash infusion structured is that Ishbia’s paying $36 mil total to Schwarber and Muncy, which means Jerry is paying $82.6 million for the roster, which is within Sox Machine’s max budget, and the most important reason of all:
4) The MLB actually has a public calculator for which teams are poor and/or small market called “competitive balance” – in this calculator, the MLB awards extra draft picks to the 15 poorest, smallest market teams in the MLB every season. The Sox have never been awarded one of these picks by the MLB. This means the MLB (which has copies of every team’s financial records) does not consider the White Sox to be either poor or small market.
TLDR the Sox can afford $130 million easily. They were at $154 million in 2022 and Jerry has made a ton of money since then. We’re fine.
CONCLUSION
The 2025 post-all star break White Sox were exciting because the rookies were hitting bombs. This team capitalizes on that excitement while also hedging some rookie power regression by adding power to the lineup.
The 2025 pitching staff was a bit of a mess and I under-addressed this a little bit. Woodruff, when healthy, is a real front of the rotation starter and Anderson is serviceable. We don’t know if Taylor to the rotation will lead to another Crochet, a move back to the bullpen, or a move to the injured list.
I added some velocity to the bullpen, but its still a weak bullpen.
The logic in under-addressing pitching is that the Sox have a lot of pitching prospect depth in the high minors, and I’m hoping roughly half of those guys turn into functional big league players.
The plan is to trade the outfield in the event that this team is not competing for a wildcard spot, which will shed some payroll to spend on pitching for next year (next offseason has a really interesting crop of starting pitchers) or supplement the pipeline with cost-controlled pitching depth.
The top 6 picks in the 2026 draft are projected to be higher-rated than the #1 pick from the 2025 and the Sox are a lock for a top 6 pick, and favored to pick #1, so more young talent is incoming.
