Some 2025 resolutions for six White Sox prospects
Trackman numbers have a way of artificially flattening what we all know to be the most difficult and complex practice of the sport: projecting what prospects will eventually be able to do at the highest level.
Young for the level? Long-levered and uncoordinated at an early age? Learning a difficult defensive position? Dealing with a family tragedy? It’s amazing how much all that context melts away when an Excel chart tells you that a player’s in-zone swing-and-miss rate is 10 percentage points higher than the MiLB average. It will be largely positive and edifying when minor league Trackman numbers become widely public, but it will also launch some of the most blinkered Twitter threads mankind has ever seen.
But because actually predicting things about the White Sox appears to anger higher powers with a ghoulish sense of humor, let’s use the data as a guide for what needs to happen for a few key prospects to have the sort of 2025 seasons upon which genuine hope can be built.
Noah Schultz: Let the four-seamer take over
The most fun way to incorporate data is to let it confirm what you already think/what is already happening. Schultz’s sinker tunnels with his superlative slider and fits naturally with his arm path, as evidenced by his well above-average command with it. But as much as he can pour it in the zone, opponents were flirting with a 90 percent in-zone contact rate against it, which portended poorly against major leaguers who will likely be able to both touch it a bit more, and actually do something with it when they do.
Aware of this situation, the White Sox already had Schultz throwing more elevated four-seamers by the end of the season, and the results implore them to keep going. Schultz maintained his above-average strike-throwing when throwing four-seamers, touched 98 mph with it, and the whiffs it generates in the strike zone are comparable to his dominant slider (it obviously doesn’t generate the same amount of chase). The four-seamer is more vulnerable to extra-base damage when opponents do make contact, and there’s no point in junking the sinker when he can throw both for strikes so consistently, but it’s another option against opponents who will expecting the signature slider in two-strike situations.
Jairo Iriarte: Rediscover the four-seamer
Cheating again here, as pitching coach Ethan Katz discussed at the end of the year that Iriarte’s fastball had flattened out to the degree that it was frequently getting coded as a sinker on the broadcast during his major league cameo. While fully reclaiming the 16 inches of inverted vertical break had to become an offseason project, the differences were clear enough when Iriarte slipped into full-on sinker mode. The increased horizontal movement on the sinker made it harder for Iriarte to keep it in the strike zone or command the pitch in general, leading to meaningfully fewer strikes and more damage.
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You heard him, youngsters. Now go have at it.
What does the data say about Thorpe? Can he live with his FB or does he need to add another pitch as many suspect? If he can maintain his promise and avoid falling off the map that’s a pretty big win for the here and now Sox.
Schultz is essential, he has to hit. A miss now would be a disaster. It’s good though that the plan/remedy is to just throw more of something that he has already shown he can throw, and for strikes, than to come up with something different or “find” control of something he hasn’t yet shown.
Iriarte would be another big win for the here and now Sox if he can harness his control and similar for Taylor and the near Sox. I don’t hold a lot of hope for that though, we’ve been burned way too many times waiting on control to appear that never comes.
I’m ok with emphasizing contact and plate discipline. They can then graduate the ones in that pool who show positive power traits. You still need a couple of mashers to make it work, but it doesn’t need to be the org focus.
It was nice rereading that article on Bonemer and Antonacci, I look forward to see what Bonemer can do this year.
Albertus seems to have lost a year between spending too much time in RK ball that he already showed the year before and then the injury shortly after the promotion to A ball. We’ll see where he’s at
Cease never learned that much control with the Sox, but finished 2nd in CYA. If the stuff is hard to hit and you can limit HR’s (both of which Cease generally did well), you can have some mistakes in control. I agree that it’s obviously better for both Iriarte and Taylor to have better control, but it’s possible to live without it getting to Schultz’ level.
Fully agree on Schultz’ fix. Pitching mix is among the easiest things to fix for a pitcher. Him hitting 98 is also excellent, just a hair below top shelf, though with his extension and arm angle, that velo will play up.
I don’t know about data, but I have a hard time seeing Thorpe rise higher than a #4 without another pitch. With as many options as the Sox have, it’s easy to see him eventually pushed out of the rotation. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the velo you normally want out of a reliever. I think if he’s going to stick, he definitely needs a secondary plus pitch. That changeup is going to cause problems for a lot of guys and his control is great, but no matter how good a pitch is, a batter’s odds of hitting it skyrocket if he knows it’s coming. Right now, he doesn’t have another out pitch than his changeup.
Thorpe might not have to add a pitch as much as he has to regain a pitch. His slider and cutter blended together, and that didn’t pair well with the velocity drop. If the bone spur was the reason, then perhaps the work has already been done, and he’s ready to be judged anew.
That would be a pleasant revelation, the cutter was a disaster but it would be hard to ditch it if he can’t get improvement with the four-seamer. If nothing else maybe some late action on the fastball could makeup for the sub-par velo but if it was that easy he’d have done it already. I guess we’ll need to key on his velocity in camp, if it’s playing closer to 93 than 90 that’s a good sign.
For Schultz I got this from Longenhagen: “Schultz is trying to work with a cutter to keep hitters off his fastball, but it and his changeup still aren’t good. His fastball is surrendering in-zone contact at an approximately 90% clip even though it’s 95-97 mph. That’s scary and weird. “
I note that because that’s roughly where Thorpe is at with his 4-seam zone contact and yet they are 8 mph apart with their fastballs. I hope the org has a plan for this, maybe bring in a specialist for the spring?
Eric’s writeup prompted me to ask Bannister about it, who suggested Schultz would incorporate the four-seamer more at the top of the zone, which meant that when Jim saw him in person late in the season he knew what to look for and to ask John Ely about.
That’s pretty much what Giolito did.
I was looking at minor league numbers so I didn’t think what Thorpe did while toying with Double-A hitters would be that informative. In either case, my answer would be that I want to see what his four-seamer and cutter look like post-surgery. As impressive as Trackman data is, inconsistency due to health issues is always a big qualifier and Thorpe indicated on a number of occasions that he never felt quite right all of 2024. Initially he just felt his mechanics were out of whack, but his elbow pain mounted over time.
Ok I guess we’ll see, but if they’re on your FB that much you’ve got to do something.
Limiting a guy to four innings per start once a week limits how anyone can project how he’ll perform at a higher level of competition. I hope they let the guy be a normal starter in AA this year.
Limiting a guy to ~15 starts in a year similarly limits him season durability.
In 2023 Schultz pitched 27 innings. Before affiliated and professional baseball, his inning total was extremely small. One option is: jump him from 27 innings to 127 innings in one season. But that seems like a bad idea.
That leaves them with the option of limiting his innings somehow. Only two ways to do that. Cut the number of starts. Or cut the number of innings per start. Either option limits him somehow.
I don’t have a problem with being careful with his workload last year. I just don’t think one can make good judgement on pitch mix if he’s never been allowed to face hitters three times in a game. There were a couple games last year where he threw 40 pitches in four innings and he didn’t start the fifth. I understand being careful but it was being taken to the point of absurdity. And this is with six day’s rest every start. So he basically had no reason to use a fourth and fifth pitch. Telling me his fourth and fifth pitch are not good is of no concern to me because it’s a given.
What’s your alternative? Even at once per week, if he’s seeing the 6th inning with any regularity they would have to shut him down in June or July. In 2024, building a stable workout foundation for the sake of longterm health is priority #1. He still has time to tinker with pitches and mix later.
Yeah, we’re talking about arguably the most critical player in the rebuild given ceiling and proximity to the majors. They need to be careful with him and there’s no need to rush him so he can help make a 110-loss team into a 104-loss team.
The biggest questions not answered are:
Will he be able to endure the grind of a full season without innings restrictions?How will he fare the 2nd and 3rd time through a lineup? (though it’s rare anymore that a pitcher’s allowed to go through one a 3rd time)Is he going all out knowing he won’t have to pitch more than 4 innings and, if so, how does his stuff suffer if he’s pulling back a little in the name of endurance?What there isn’t a big question about, at least, not more than with any AA pitching prospect, is how his stuff will play against better hitters. I think he’s answered that as well as he’s able.
All that to say, it’s just health and endurance, for the most part. The 2nd question is pretty big, but he was so dominant that even taking a step back from that still leaves him as a really good pitcher. I agree that I hope they let him go as far as he’s able to without getting run down, but I feel he’s answered the most important question as well as possible without having actually faced these higher-level hitters. And I hope that even if he starts at AA, that they move him up to AAA relatively soon if he’s still pitching as well as he did. Give him the challenge he needs to grow.
I think the workload placed on Schultz has been entirely reasonable. His dominance in shorter outings is what permits optimism that he can be effective against higher levels of hitting for longer stretches as he matures.
Wilfred Veras: Stop swinging at everything. Guy would swing at a throw to first.
Dodgers trade Gavin Lux to Cincy, a curious move for sure. I wonder if Cincy is still interested in Robert.
I’m sure they’re interested, but I’m not sure their level of interest rises to trading one of their five top-100 prospects. Too bad, because Arroyo could be a great fit.
I don’t think Robert gets a top 100 prospect from anyone right now. Even if hes a 3 WAR player at the deadline I’m not sure he gets one given his injury profile. The Sox are pretty much out of players to trade until Schultz and Smith come up.
Agreed. I’m sure plenty of teams are willing to take a chance on him but the price they’re willing to pay to do so doesn’t rise to their top prospects. Bad enough he’s making $15 million when he’s liable to miss half the season.
Looking at the reds semi log jam situation for their infield and wonder what it would take to pry Noelvi Marte away… wouldnt do a robert trade with that being the return but maybe a prospect swap of some sort…
Also still curious on what the dodgers might do with the extra pitching…bobby miller or emmet sheehan among others arent likely to make their rotation especially if they sign roki sasaki
I mean Vargas was a top 100 prospect…
I’m sure the Dodgers would have no problem trading Cartaya for Robert or the Yankees trading Oswald Peraza or anyone from most of the back half of the current top 100.
I disagree. He won’t get a Crochet-level package, but I think he returns a top 100 prospect + some decent fillers.
The thing about Robert is the floor is more stable than people think. He was about as bad as he can be in 2024 and injured, but he still put up 1.4 WAR in 393 ABs (~2.4 WAR over a full season). The power, speed, defense combo gives him both a stable floor and high ceiling.
Look at market alternatives. Anthony Santander (for example) is projected by MLBTR to get 4 years, $80m. He’s been very healthy and consistent over the last three years, which is what you’re paying for. But even half a season of Robert + his replacement probably gets you Santander’s production, who has never gotten above 3 WAR and is heading into his age 30 season.
While Robert’s 2025 season isn’t particularly cheap, teams value contract flexibility. If you go get Santander, you’re on the hook for $80m. With Robert, it’s only $15m.
Anyway, I think the value is there. Like us, I think opposing teams see an injury risk with a sky-high ceiling and solid floor. For the more budget-conscious teams trying to take the next step (Reds and Pirates come to mind), Robert is exactly the kind of risk they should take. He’s the kind of player I would’ve liked the 2021 White Sox to acquire.
He is worth a top 100 mlb prospect and 1 more legit prospect on a teams top 10 list
The prospect huggers constantly need a reality check on how these guys usually turn out. A contending team in need of OF help would be crazy not to shed that return for a player like Robert.
Robert has established 2-3 war level of play over the last 5 years, he has contractual flexibility and a very high possible ceiling.
Yes. I usually encourage fans to go back and look at lists from 5-7 years ago. Fans read glowing reports and comps, get all excited, and I get it. But the reality is most of these guys don’t turn out. Top 20 in baseball? Sure. But back half of the top 100? No.
Cartaya was very “hugged”…now DFA’ed
Yeah, sure, a lot of prospects bust. But we’re talking about present value, and Robert, with his injury history, eight figure salary, and poor performance in 2024, is probably not worth a top-100 prospect unless the other team has completely lost faith in said prospect, in which case why would we want him?
No doubt, Robert is a mixed bag. The things you mention limit his value. But you can’t ignore the things that give him value: age, upside, even the floor when healthy.
The contract is eight figures, sure, so he’s not playing for pennies like Crochet. But the contract is still a plus, not a liability, to his value. Relative to market value, he’s very affordable and we’ve seen how much teams value contract flexibility. Sure you can go sign Anthony Santander for no prospects instead—but now you’re on the hook for $80m+ for a 30+ year old who’s never cracked 3+ WAR.
If I’m the Dodgers, Phils, Yanks, etc.—excellent, basically complete team with deep pockets—then I probably do prefer Santander and I’ll keep my prospects. But if I’m a team like the Reds, Giants, Cubs, even Nats—middling, cheap team looking to take the next step—then Robert is the kind of big swing I’d be eager to take, without committing much by way of future $.
2024 established Robert’s floor as a below-average major league player. It was horribly damaging to his value. And his age doesn’t matter; nobody’s gonna buy that he’ll be any healthier as he closes in on 30.
1.4 WAR in 100 games is not below average production. That’s ~2.3 WAR / 162 games. Health is obviously a major concern, but that’s a solid production floor.
Obviously 2024 was damaging to his value. No dispute there. The question is only how much.
Yes, his age does matter.
I like to point out, Alexander Albertus and George Wolkow were both “Industry Picks to Click”, players who some of FanGraphs sources in baseball thought were going to have breakout 2024 seasons.
Development is not linear; White Sox have improved their development system
I am looking forward to watching development up and down the system in 2025, from MLB to A ball, and reports form Complex, DSL, Instructs, etc.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2025-top-100/