Erick Fedde gives White Sox sorely needed upside from outside
It’s a sluggish hot stove season globally, but locally, the White Sox have been among the busiest teams. Chris Getz acquired five players for Aaron Bummer, which included two potential starting pitchers and half of a middle-infield renovation, with the other half arriving a week and a half later.
Yet none of it felt particularly meaningful, because none of the half-dozen players offered much in the way of upside. Mike Soroka’s sixth-place finish in the Cy Young gave him the highest potential ceiling, but that came five seasons and numerous injuries ago. Jared Shuster had first-round pedigree but Day 2 results in Atlanta’s rotation. Nicky Lopez and Paul DeJong upgraded the White Sox’s middle-infield defense, but at the expense of lowered offensive ceilings, and Braden Shewmake doesn’t seem likely to usurp either.
It’s not that the White Sox lacked a rationale in making each move. It’s that the bar had been set so low that so much could constitute improvement without coming close to transforming the product. The additions mostly just seemed designed to get White Sox games over with, for better or for worse.
The Erick Fedde signing isn’t Getz’s first free agent signing, but it’s the first Getz free agent signing that conveys real ambition.
PERTINENT: White Sox signing KBO MVP Erick Fedde to two-year deal
The excitement requires qualifications due to the quality of competition. Fedde overmatched the KBO with a new-look arsenal, but he’d probably do the same if he spent entire year in Double-A. Part of the reason why the Sox have to go after somebody like Fedde is because they’re not going to pony up for players who had strong seasons at the highest level domestically.
That also creates its own brand of refreshment, because there’s something to be said for not knowing how good Fedde can be. That can’t be said about Lopez and DeJong, which is why you’re hearing so much emphasis on their fundamentals. Shuster requires a rejuvenation that hasn’t occurred, and Soroka’s body could always give way.
Fedde represents enough that’s new to forgive the White Sox if he turns out to be more of the same. The White Sox acquired him from a market they’ve long ignored. They successfully conducted negotiations with an agent they’ve been loath to deal with directly. They’re exploring a strategy that the new assistant GM witnessed up close in Arizona, and they leveraged the knowledge and connections of the new senior pitching advisor. “I know this guy from San Francisco” is a whole lot more inspiring than “I know this guy from Kansas City.”
SOX MACHINE PODCAST: 2023 Winter Meetings Day 2 Recap: Hello, Erick Fedde
If all of that’s for naught, then that’s why Fedde required just $15 million for his services, and he’ll just be a meat shield for pitching prospects who aren’t quite ready to be relied upon in the majors. If he proves to be an acceptable, durable No. 4 starter, then the two-year deal gives them a head start on the 2024-25 to-do list. If he’s actually good — like, Merrill Kelly or Logan Webb good — then the Sox have an actual asset to contemplate.
White Sox goggles aren’t required to see such upside. Here’s the report from FanGraphs’ board:
His fastball looks heavier (70% GB% in 2023!), and he has upped his changeup usage. His newly-shaped slider was easily his most dominant pitch in 2023 and generated 41% of Fedde’s swings and misses. The chase rate on his changeup and slider was up around 40% for both pitches, and Fedde looked rejuvenated despite working as many innings as he did. He has a chance to make an impact similar to the one Merrill Kelly has made in Arizona and slot into a contending team’s rotation.
And here’s Eno Sarris’ instant reaction:
For a team drastically in need of innings, this sort of signing makes a lot of sense. Worst case, Fedde can be a back end guy for them and soak up innings. Best case they get a discount Logan Webb for a couple years.
He’ll need plenty of reps before anybody can cross that bridge, but the spectrum of possibilities makes me look forward to watching Fedde’s first few starts and comparing it to the Statcast data he left behind in Washington. There aren’t that many players who inspire genuine curiosity, rather than the morbid brand that’s matched the state of the team.
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Never mistake activity for achievement.
Despite what Getz implies, the W Sox are in pure rebuild. And whatever the reason, this team isn’t going to go after the big-star, big-money free agents. And seemingly, those top-of-the-market free agents aren’t particularly inclined to have the W Sox as a desired destination. Having inexperienced Getz/Girafol at the steering wheel may hamstring this rebuild process…or may not. We’ll see.
So in the free agent shopping mart, Erick Fedde may just work out. I remember when they signed Estaban Loaiza. Loaiza had a middling career going 69-73 with ERAs in the 4’s and 5’s. He came to the Sox and immediately emerged as the ace, winning 21 games and finishing second in the Cy Young voting. I’m not saying that I’m expecting Fedde to win 20 games, but Loaiza showed us that sometimes it does work out.
At the trading block shopping mart, Getz has his one chance to make a splash and acquire honest-to-goodness ballplayers in Dylan Cease. Time will tell if the Giolito/ Lopez/ Lynn/ Bummer trades will bring the W Sox any plus-plus players, but Getz absolutely has to get the Cease trade right. The return for Cease will shape the direction of this rebuild.
At the draft table, number #5 isn’t so bad. The W Sox landed Jack McDowell with the 5th pick in ’87. Other number 5’s include Buster Posey, Mark Tiexeira, and Dwight Gooden.
I wouldn’t take Loaiza as an example of ‘things working out’ 😉
I used him as an example of picking up a player who has had negative stats as Fedde does (21-33, 5.43 with Wash) and out-of-the-blue had an almost Cy Young year, Loaiza fell to 9-5 the next year and was traded to Yanks for Jose Contreras. Fedde is signed for 2 years. If Fedde matches Loaiza and goes 30-14 and gets flipped for another top-of-the-rotation pitcher, I’d say that worked out. Thanks Holland.
I think Holland was referring to Loaiza’s subsequent criminal career and incarceration.
It was a joke, and I was indeed referring to his subsequent criminal career, sorry if I didn’t make that clear enough. I absolutely agree with you that replicating Loiaza’s White Sox career would be an awesome outcome for Fedde. Here’s to hoping he does (and doesn’t end in Fedde-ral Prison).
“And whatever the reason, this team isn’t going to go after the big-star, big-money free agents”
That reason would be the White Sox Chairman, sir. I know you hate calling him “cheap” but whatever word you want to come up with, let it be one that illustrates his unwillingness to spend with the big boys (ill-advised record breaking extensions to minor leaguers be damned)
It’s a shame they don’t appear that open to trading Robert. He’d immediately become the 2nd best player available, after Ohtani. The return for him would be Soto-esque, given that he has more control than Soto did when traded and that it’s relatively cheap control. Maybe they’ll surprise us, but I just don’t see the Sox competing before at least 2026 if they don’t trade Robert, and even that’s only if their return for Cease and Giolito work out and they spend money wisely (not their strong suit, historically). Long story short, I think the real defining decision for Getz is whether to trade Robert and, if he does, what he gets for him. Trading Cease will help the team, but it likely won’t define the success of this rebuild.
Soto was traded with 2 years remaining on his contract and Roberts has 4. There’s still time.
Yes, but unless he starts walking more or hits .338 again like he did a few years ago, his production is pretty much what it is. His fWAR/162 for his career is 5.1 and for last year, I think it was 5.5 or 5.6. So last year wasn’t a breakout, it was just him staying healthy. But it also means that the longer they wait to trade him, the lower their return. Since they won’t compete next year and probably not in 2025, it makes little sense to hold on to him.
(And, because it matters for playoff pushes, Soto actually had 2.5 years left).
Fedde has raised my interest rate.
Definitely. I am actually looking forward to see him pitch. At least until he ceases to work. Seeing Fedde is a lot more interesting than seeing Scholtens (no disrespect)
I’m reserving judgment
“He’ll need plenty of reps before anybody can cross that bridge, but the spectrum of possibilities makes me look forward to watching Fedde’s first few starts and comparing it to the Statcast data he left behind in Washington.“
This is a big reason I like the signing so much, he’s genuinely intriguing. The intrigue could dissipate pretty quickly if he reverts back to Washington Fedde, but I really think these are the swings the Sox should be taking at this juncture. Few things with this team have me interested, but the direction Bannister takes with the pitching staff is one of them.
I think $15 million for 2 years of a starting pitcher pretty much says it all.
On Twitter, Brian Bannister posted:
“1. Fedde works out at the same facility as Logan Webb in the offseason.
2. He added the same sweeper + split- change to his arsenal as Webb. He did not use these pitches in Washington.
3. Ethan Katz & I were both with Webb when these adjustments were made.”
The other day the question came up about why a pitcher would sign with the Sox over another team. Someone replied that the clear path to innings was one motivator and the opportunity to work with Bannister and Katz was another.
The path to innings reflects a weakness on the Sox, but the Bannister/Katz duo could be a calling card now and in the future. It’s one way Getz has already changed this team. If they have success with Fedde, the Sox could have a tie-breaker with free agent pitchers.
I am hoping this combo is what swings the difference for us with Flaherty. Get that one done and we are just missing a #2
Agreed, I think Flaherty is better, cheaper option than Giolito. Add that Banister is coming in with a plan has given me some hope on the pitching side.
With the Sox, I’m in more of an “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode. Last year, Grifol had a plan, too, and talked a great game. We all know how that worked out.
Grifol didn’t have a plan, he had platitudes and asskissing. Banister at least put eyes on this guy and his tweet/comment was what he saw and not what he felt would happen to the “culture”.
That’s what they turned out to be, but he presented it as a plan. It sounded good to a lot of us at the time. But the point is that he didn’t follow through at all on what he said he’d do. Neither you nor I know whether Bannister will be better at following through. Just have to wait and see.
We do know because Bannister has way more a track record than Grifol ever had.
I asked that question and I think it depends on the quality and expectations of the pitcher. For a more established starter, I think you go for playoff odds or money. For a reclamation project, I’d think the path to innings would be a bigger factor. I haven’t seen how much Bannister’s plans will help yet, but Katz still coached a pitching staff that was 2nd in walks surrendered, 5th worst in ERA, and gave up the 4th most HR’s. Granted, they didn’t have the most talented staff, but those aren’t good numbers. Katz has done good work with Rodon, Giolito, and Cease, and the breakout of Santos was a pleasant surprise, but there are also shortcomings if you look at the staff as a whole. If I were a pitcher, I wouldn’t view that as a big motivator, certainly not nearly as much of one as the chance to pitch for Tampa Bay or Cleveland.
For Fedde in particular, I think he could have stuck in the Mets’ rotation, though they do have more options than the Sox do. Maybe he wanted his return to the US to be less scrutinized by the media, maybe the Sox offered him way more than the Mets, maybe he liked his odds better at getting his full slate of starts with the Sox. Who knows?
I am happy the Sox got him, though. I had thought he was largely using them to maximize his deal with the Mets, but that turned out to be untrue. Good price and short term.
You can’t leave money out of it. The speculation was that Fredde would get about $5 million a season. The Sox exceeded that pretty healthily. I’m not saying it was a overpay, but it’s quite possible it was simply a case of the Sox offering the best deal.
Frankly, as I said elsewhere, I buy that a lot more than I’d buy Katz having any major sway here, as most of his value has been more theoretical than proven out by evidence.
Levine reporting the sox asked the reds for Lowder, Petty, Jorge, Stafura, their #2,6,9,11 prospects Lowder is mlbs #41
not quite the template I keep coming back to of a top 50, top 100 and 2 more decent prospect lotto tickets but its definitely in the ball park
That’s a bit depressing – those guys are all a long way from MLB which means the Sox have no ambition to competitive anytime soon. Also very pitching heavy. And honestly less talent than I would think Cease could bring back.
If the Sox make a deal like that, they should trade Robert as well. They aren’t going to compete before the end of his contract.
MLB.com lists the top 3 — Lowder, Petty, Jorge — with an ETA of 2025. Yeah, that probably doesn’t line them up for 2025 success. But if they’re trading Cease, 2025 is a long shot, anyway. After a Cease trade, 2026 is probably the target.
Pitching heavy is a bit of a concern. I hope the headliner is a position player.
Getz really wants to make Jerry’s last few years unbearable, huh?
If these are actually the timelines of guys he’s targeting, count me surprised. I thought Getz would use a trade to address more immediate needs.
The top half of this package is less than I expect for Cease, but the bottom half is more. So this may be Getz targeting depth, again.
For what it’s worth, Fangraphs is less enthused with Lowder. He’s a 45+ and isn’t in the top 100. But that may just be out of date.
I’m surprised the Reds didn’t make that trade if that offer was on the table.
I really would prefer they target close to the Majors position players
I wouldn’t want depth in a Cease deal. It was fine to get a bunch of options for Bummer and hope one of them works, but with Cease, I’d want a headliner, a guy with at least a fair chance to be better than Cease if everything clicks. For the Reds in particular, I’d want a deal to start with Marte or Arroyo.
Lowder is a headliner. Lowder is ranked higher than Arroyo on MLB.com.
Not arguing that. You yourself said Getz was targeting depth. That was the comment to which I was replying.
But even then, I think the Reds are more likely to trade Marte than Lowder. They have a surplus in the middle IF, and little in the way of quality pitching options. The Sox asking for mostly pitching in return just seems like a non-starter.
Well, sure, but there’ll be a headliner one way or the other. For this particular trade, the headliner isn’t as strong as other options (like Kjerstad, for example) but the “other” guys are better.
In terms of pure prospect value, I think sacrificing some on the headliner in favor of more depth is a good idea. I like that all four of these guys are real prospects and probably slot into the top half of the Sox top 30 list. The thing I don’t love about this one is the headliner is a pitcher. But ultimately I’d be happy with this trade.
In any deal, I’d want the Sox to answer 2B, SS, or 3B. I know Montgomery is a SS, but may have to shift to 3B at some point. And with the Reds needing pitchers so badly, trading from their minor league pitchers rather than their overstock of middle IF seems less likely.
Yes, that Reds report is definitely in the ball park. But I am also looking for a player or two who can play right now. Not all ‘top’ prospects. Prospects are just that prospects. Major league talent has to be in the return. Like I’ve said, dazzle me! Opinion. If Ohtani gets that $600 million contract, that team will never win it! It’s baseball and he is one player. Whatever, as a White Sox fan, I won’t have to be concerned about that possibility impacting the team.
Ohtani is only one player, but for a team that is already a perennial playoff team with deep pockets or a bunch of team-friendly deals, I think he can push them over the top. For me, I’d rather spread the risk. Bellinger and Snell combined, for example, will probably cost about what Ohtani costs per year. Bellinger isn’t the hitter Ohtani is, but makes up for some of that by being a very good defender. Snell has a higher ceiling as a pitcher than Ohtani has so far showed. (Also, Snell is available to pitch in 2024.) You could also sign Chapman instead of Bellinger, save some money, and use that to upgrade another offensive hole or the bullpen.
Ohtani is getting $600m precisely because he isn’t one player.
A team like the Dodgers shelling out the money for Ohtani won’t negatively affect them in any way. They’ll continue to spend to fix other issues, and they maintain a pretty good pipeline to fill some holes with cheap, young players. That doesn’t even take into account the positive financial impact Ohtani will have on whatever team that signs him. Reinsdorf is notoriously bad at recognizing that spending to build a better product will result in more revenue through higher fan interest.
Teams that are serious about winning operate in a way that doesn’t remotely resemble what we’re used to seeing with the White Sox.
This. I continue to be amazed that a businessman who was at least at one time very successful at what he did cannot recognize the value of both long-range and ancillary returns.
https://twitter.com/MLBBruceLevine/status/1732457561457144263
BS leverage for a stadium deal here. I don’t think any municipality will negotiate a deal with an 87 year old.
Agreed. O’Connell may not even be mayor when the Sox lease is up and Jerry may not even be around at that time. But unfortunately these rumors are going to start kicking into gear until a deal is in place.
I always felt that Jerry was just out-of-touch with the modern realities of baseball management; with this he looks like he’s descending to John Fisher levels.
100%, but it worked last time. JR is trying to scare the politicians into deeding the stadium over to the team which will help his group in maximizing the sale price. Selling the White Sox with an expiring stadium lease isn’t ideal. It’s going to work because the stadium and land are worthless without the White Sox.
The land is not worthless without the White Sox. Developers are crying for land by major interstates for Industrial developments.
Michael Reese property a mile away has been vacant for 30 years, probably a bigger site, same access. $50 million demolition of stadium and clean-up of site is a big pill to swallow too. City and state are not in the real estate business, they are in the collecting tax business.
It can only mean one thing: JR is stalking Margulus.
I’m going to write about this after the Rule 5 stuff, but I talked about it on The Score earlier this afternoon.
https://twitter.com/670TheScore/status/1732487983675167215
https://twitter.com/VinnieDuber/status/1732476239674311117
At this point pretty much any activity is positive activity.
Looked great in AA last year, then got his ass handed to him in AAA. Seems an odd pick, but I guess they can always send him back.
Katiesphil!!!
Hi, BK.
Great profile pic.
Whodis?
Definitely didn’t seem ready for the majors since he got hammered in AAA last year, but if the Sox have to offer him back, this attempt cost only $50K net. I’d have preferred de los Santos from the D’backs, though. Less experience, but has shown better for his age and the Sox will need a replacement for Moncada.
A Cy Kim winner. Hooray.