PREAMBLE
This is where the payroll constraints really start to get hard. We have holes to fill at 2B and RF and not much farm capital to work with. On the bright side, this is a playoff caliber team albeit not a dominant one. I refuse to sell low on Vaughn or Kimbrel which limits our options even further, but I think that it's the right decision in the long run.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Lucas Giolito: $7.9M Tender
- Reynaldo López; $2.8M Tender
- Evan Marshall: $2.3M Non-Tender (offer minor league contract)
- Adam Engel: $2.2M Tender
- Brian Goodwin: $1.7M Non-Tender (offer minor league contract)
- Jimmy Cordero: $1.2M Tender
- Jace Fry: $1M Non-Tender (offer minor league contract)
CLUB OPTIONS
- Craig Kimbrel: $16M ($1M buyout) pick up
- César Hernández: $6M pick up (you're not gonna like where we are going with this...)
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Leury García (Made $3.5M in 2021) Let go
- Carlos Rodón ($3M) Let go
- Billy Hamilton ($1M) Extend contract 2yr 3.5M ($1.5M in '22)
- Ryan Tepera ($950K) Let go
Boras is gonna find a way to get Rodon paid this Winter and we just can't afford to keep him. Same with Leury pricing himself out of our utility man role
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Michael Conforto (four year, $70 million, $15M in '22). We have one bullet in the chamber and this is where it goes. fits the hole in RF and hopefully allows us to buy low after a down year with Conforto who hopefully returns to his 2017-2020 self. He's only 28 so I think it's very feasible
TRADES
I put feelers out on a Kimbrel trade, but I really don't think I get anyone to bite. I refuse to sell low and think I/Hahn will insist on getting elite Closer value which I don't think comes until the deadline
SUMMARY
Even with all the cuts and tough decisions, I am still sitting at a $186M opening day payroll which is conveniently exactly the cost of picking up Kimbrel's option. I hopefully convince Jerry that the $16M is money well spent for a trade to be made at a later date a la Moneyball Billy Beane. This team is far from perfect. The rotation is shaky and we're still trotting out Hernandez at 2B, but I think I made reasonable estimates of player costs and trade value and made the best of a tough situation.
You'll notice 1 conspicuous absence on my opening day roster - I have Vaughn starting the year in AAA to get his rhythm back and finally getting to see/dominate AAA.
Opening day Roster
C - Grandal
1B - Abreu
2B - Hernandez
3B - Moncada
SS - Timmy
LF - Eloy
CF- Robert
RF - Conforto
DH - Sheets
Vaughn Joins the lineup around May if all goes to plan
Bench:
C - Zavala
OF - Engel
OF - Hamilton
UTIL - Mendick
Starting Rotation
- Giolito
- Lynn
- Cease
- Kopech (!)
- Keuchel
Yes Keuchel stays in the rotation. He is as good as any 5th starter option and he comes at the low low price of FREE (after sunk costs) so it makes no sense to get rid of him
Arm Barn
CL - Hendricks
SU - Kimbrel
R1 - Bummer
R2 - Crochet
R3 - Lopez
R4 - Cordero
R5 - Foster
R6 - Ruiz
