Farm Fortnight: In lieu of top prospects, prospects

10:40 AM CDT on June 1, 2021

Durham Bulls Athletic Park (Jim Margalus / Sox Machine)

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The fearsome foursome of Michael Kopech, Andrew Vaughn, Garrett Crochet and Nick Madrigal all shed their prospect status over the first two months of the season, which is the kind of blow a farm system is happy to absorb. The White Sox also “lost” prospects like Eloy Jiménez, Luis Robert and Dylan Cease the previous two seasons. If only all setbacks could be so flattering.

But while a fallow period can be expected and accepted after a period of heavy prospect graduation, it’s fair to wonder whether the Sox will be able to replenish the ranks anytime soon. The remainder of my top prospect list is quick to reject the idea. Replace the top four with those among the first to receive honorable mentions, and it looks something like this:

Jared Kelley
Yoelqui Céspedes
Matthew Thompson
Andrew Dalquist
Norge Vera
Bryan Ramos
Benyamin Bailey
José Rodriguez
Jimmy Lambert
Jonathan Stiever

You can try to harvest names from other lists, but there aren't any hidden gems yet there, either.

Based in the first month, Thompson would slip ahead of Kelley and Rodriguez would also barge into the top five, and maybe Jake Burger or Gavin Sheets merits more consideration, but there isn’t a whole lot else to distinguish this group as long as Céspedes continues to be out of the mix. (There’s no update I’ve seen, either via traditional media or his social channels.) It sounds like Oscar Colás will be able to lend a hand when the next signing period opens in January, but it'd be nice to see how Céspedes performs against stateside competition in order to calibrate expectations for the latest iteration of Cuban numbers.

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Charlotte Knights

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Overview

Last two series: 1-5 at Durham; 1-4 at Norfolk
Record: 8-15
Next two series: vs. Nashville, @Durham
Individual stats

After spending their first two weeks raking at their cozy home of Truist Field, the Charlotte Knights spent the last two weeks on the road with series in Durham and Norfolk. Looking at the 2019 International League park factors, the former plays neutral with a little boost to homers, while the latter tilts toward pitchers in all respects.

As you might expect, the offensive numbers regressed on the whole, but not in a way that generates alarm. They went from averaging 5.67 runs per game at home to 5.37 runs over the last two weeks, although the latter average is propped up by a 17-run outburst on Friday. The bigger issue is on the run-prevention side, where Knights pitchers allowed 6.18 runs over the last two weeks. That marks an improvement from the 6.92 they allowed at Truist Field, but not in a way that helps their record any.

Now let's delve into some home-road splits at the player level.

Position Player Prospects

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2
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.306
.280
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.352
.333
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.512
.447
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Jake Burger home: .216/.275/.514 over 40 PA
Jake Burger road: .342/.390/.684 over 41 PA

Gavin Sheets home: .367/.415/.633 over 53 PA
Gavin Sheets road: .270/.308/.317 over 39 PA

Blake Rutherford home: .297/.371/.514 over 42 PA
Blake Rutherford road: .313/.327/.396 over 49 PA

Luis González home: .250/.400/1.000 over 5 PA
Luis González road: .172/.194/.172 over 31 PA

Burger is the only prospect who ended up on the other side of the high-low game, as he spent the first fortnight knocking off rust from being dormant most of the last three years. That said, he made himself at home on the road, as more than half of his 13 hits went for extra bases (three homers, four doubles). The rest of the group combined for five extra-base hits total, with Sheets homering once and Rutherford doubling four times.

The good news is González is the only one who definitely struggled, whereas Sheets and Rutherford had some bat-to-ball success around less impressive peripherals (Sheets was limited by a tumble into the dugout after catching a foul ball). If the first month is any indication -- well, the first month and the history of Charlotte's park -- the slugging-related categories are going to experience some wild fluctuation based on the Knights' schedule.

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Others of Note

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Brian Goodwin home: .161/.188/.258 over 32 PA
Brian Goodwin away: .324/.410/.618 over 39 PA

Seby Zavala home: .300/.365/.675 over 44 PA
Seby Zavala away: .133/.212/.133 over 33 PA

Marco Hernández home: .432/.435/.705 over 47 PA
Marco Hernández away: .293/.310/.317 over 42 PA

After a rocky start, Goodwin is looking more like a guy who's capable of being on most MLB rosters in some capacity. There's nothing wrong with his road production except for the 38.6 percent strikeout rate, which is hopefully on the way down. He struck out just four times over the last four games, compared to 11 K's over the five before that.

As for the others, that's what a 28-percent gap in strikeout rate looks like. Zavala is fanning at team-worst 42 percent of the time, while Hernandez is leading the team at 14.3 percent. I didn't include Engel because his rehab stint started within the last two weeks, so that line above represents Engel's road splits. He's doing fine.

Starting Pitching Prospects

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Jimmy Lambert home: 3 G, 5.2 IP, 7 H, 8 R, 8 ER, 2 HR, 3 BB, 12 K
Jimmy Lambert away: 2 G, 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 HR, 3 BB, 11 K

Jonathan Stiever home: 3 G, 12 IP, 12 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 HR, 6 BB, 14 K
Jonathan Stiever away: 2 G, 3 IP, 5 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 4 K

Reynaldo López home: 1 G, 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 7 K
Reynaldo López away: 2 G, 6 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 1 HR, 0 BB, 3 K

Lambert got the call to Chicago to take the second game of the Monday's doubleheader, partially because of his throwing schedule, and partially because nobody else demanded the Sox to change any pitching plans. He'd topped out at three innings in his first five starts with Charlotte, and that's about where he hit the wall in his return to the majors. That's still better than what Stiever and López accomplished in their most recent stabs at the level. In the previous installment of Farm Fortnight, I'd wondered if Stiever's elevated walk rate over the first three games was encouraged by the way the ball flies in Charlotte, but he labored in different environs.

Relief Prospects

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Tyler Johnson remains on the injured list while Zack Burdi did another lap between Charlotte and Chicago for the previous doubleheader, so his season has yet to really start in earnest at one level or another. Jace Fry is working his way back from his microdisectomy, and the White Sox's estimated return date of June 1 is not too far off.

Birmingham Barons

[/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossless+ret_img/https://lede-admin.soxmachine.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/62/2019/04/barons-logo.png" title_text="barons-logo" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"]

Overview

Last two series: 3-3 vs. Montgomery; 4-2 at Rocket City
Record: 16-8
Next two series: vs. Tennessee, @Montgomery
Individual stats

The Birmingham Barons might be the closest approximation to the 2021 White Sox at the minor league level. The offense is leading the former Southern League with 5.83 runs per game thanks in large part to contributions by unheralded players. The pitching is equally effective, with the third-best ERA despite a lack of brand-name talent. They’re in first place because their rotation is five deep and giving them a chance to win most nights. Set aside the 13-walk inning by the Barons during the season’s first week, and the relief corps has stabilized as well.

Position Player Prospects

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Micker Adolfo righted his numbers with a huge series against the Montgomery Biscuits, but perhaps it's no coincidence that their pitching staff has the league's lowest strikeout rate. When he faced a Rocket City Trash Pandas pitching staff that is average in that department, he struck out 12 times over 26 plate appearances. Romy Gonzalez had similar contact issues, going 4-for-31 with 15 strikeouts over the last two weeks. The timing correlated with a week's worth of missed games. Ti'Quan Forbes' numbers from the same period resemble his 2019 line (.220/.273/.341).

Carlos Pérez is the one guy in this group who can say his arrow is pointing up. He has unfettered access to starts behind the plate, appearing in 11 of the last 12 games, and that's not looking like a bad thing. His current .139 ISO would be a stateside high by far. It's rising hand-in-hand with his strikeout rate, which is only alarming at its current level (16.7 percent) because it's such a sizable jump from the last two years (9.1 percent). Then again, what's the point of not striking out if you can't cash in some of that contact for a bigger impact?

Others of Note

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Granite" col_column_min_width="88px" col_tcell_cell_color="#c1434b" col_tcell_cell_align_horz="left" col_tcell_cell_align_vert="center" col_rhead_cell_color="#c1434b" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default" col_tcell_text_text_color="#000000" col_rhead_text_text_color="#FFFFFF"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="PA" col_content="PA
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8
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26
21" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="SB" col_content="SB
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0
2" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="BA" col_content="BA
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.277" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="OBP" col_content="OBP
.368
.380" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="SLG" col_content="SLG
.590
.590" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][/dvmd_table_maker][et_pb_text _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"]

Craig Dedelow is coming back to his career norms, but he built up quite a cushion with his first two weeks, so his OPS is still at .958 despite a much quieter half-month. At 28, Zack Granite is basically J.B. Shuck's Flintstones name, but he's a big reason why the Barons are as successful as they are.

Starting Pitching Prospects

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Bilous
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4
2
5
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20
7
25
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16
9
24
6" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="R" col_content="R
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6
2
10
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6
2
7
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4
3
1
3
0" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="BB" col_content="BB
4
6
0
4
7" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="K" col_content="K
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18
7
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6.61
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2.57
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The strength of this team grew stronger when the White Sox moved Jason Bilous from Winston-Salem to Birmingham. He impressed in his Double-A debut before laboring through two innings in his second outing, although he faced the same opponent for the second time in six days, and his counterpart encountered the same struggles. We'll find out how much the schedule played into his lack of an encore when he takes his next turn.

Otherwise, the rest of the rotation is giving the Barons a solid five innings most nights, and Justin Jirschele doesn't ask for more. Kade McClure allowed nine of his 12 runs over 1⅓ ugly innings against Montgomery, but he rebounded for his third five-inning, one-run start of the season against Rocket City on Wednesday, setting a season high with nine strikeouts. Konnor Pilkington has yet to slip up in any start, while Blake Battenfield finally had his first ugly outing of the season his last time out, giving up five runs and three homers. Both have thrown exactly five innings every time out.

I'm still not sure what to do with Ofreidy Gomez, although I may have to recategorize him if his last outing is any indication. He pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for his first save of the season on Thursday after opening the year with five consecutive multi-inning outings, four of them three innings or longer.

Relief Prospects

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Kincanon" col_column_min_width="88px" col_tcell_cell_color="#c1434b" col_tcell_cell_align_horz="left" col_tcell_cell_align_vert="center" col_rhead_cell_color="#c1434b" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default" col_tcell_text_text_color="#000000" col_rhead_text_text_color="#FFFFFF"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="G" col_content="G
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4" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="ERA" col_content="ERA
3.60
0.00" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][/dvmd_table_maker][et_pb_text _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"]

Will Kincanon hasn't pitched since May 15, but I'm giving him some company with Bennett Sousa, who struck out 12 over seven hitless innings over a five-game stretch before his hot streak halted with two homers in an inning against Rocket City. The White Sox drafted the left-handed Sousa in the 10th round in 2018 as a senior signing out of Virginia, but they've given him some ambitious assignments since, includng an Arizona Fall League spot in 2019, and a non-roster invitation this past spring.

Winston-Salem Dash

[/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src="https://cdn.shortpixel.ai/spai/q_lossless+ret_img/https://lede-admin.soxmachine.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/62/2021/05/winston-salem.jpg" title_text="winston-salem" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"]

Overview

Last two series: 2-4 @Jersey Shore; 3-3 vs. Hickory
Record: 12-12
Next two series: @Greensboro, vs. Greenville
Individual stats

The Winston-Salem Dash keep hovering around .500 despite an offense that’s the league’s second-worst in most respects. They’re hitting just .197 as a team, although two teams are below them in the High-A East. Their .273 on-base percentage, on the other hand, is worst in the league by nine whole points. The only have one hitter with an OPS above .700, no matter if you expand the sample to anybody who has come to the plate for them this season.

They’ve negated their offensive struggles thanks to a pitching staff that has been incredibly stingy with the long ball. Dash pitchers have surrendered just 10 homers over 211 innings, which has helped them maintain the third-lowest ERA without exemplary walk or strikeout rates.

With Bilous getting the early-season promotion to Birmingham, other members of the Dash are going to have to step up in order to replace the prospect capital in the low minors.

Position Player Prospects

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Curbelo
Sosa
Mieses
Sanchez
Bush
Mendoza
Ellis" col_column_min_width="88px" col_tcell_cell_color="#c1434b" col_tcell_cell_align_horz="left" col_tcell_cell_align_vert="center" col_rhead_cell_color="#c1434b" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default" col_tcell_text_text_color="#000000" col_rhead_text_text_color="#FFFFFF"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="PA" col_content="PA
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96
74
83
38
57
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5
4
2
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0
1
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0
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2
3
0
1
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9
7
5
2
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2
3
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4
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32
34
19
13
13
9
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1
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0
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2
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.223
.155
.222
.147
.170
.213" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="OBP" col_content="OBP
.310
.240
.189
.317
.237
.298
.292" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="SLG" col_content="SLG
.620
.340
.366
.250
.235
.234
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The Dash's offense mostly lives or dies on whether Luis Curbelo can deliver the power on a given day. He continues to succeed with a very iffy profile. Five of his 11 hits went for extra bases over the last two weeks (two homers, a triple, two doubles), but he also struck out 18 times against just one walk over 46 plate appearances, so his K rate is actually on the rise.

Beyond Curbelo, you can see baby steps for Duke Ellis and Harvin Mendoza. Ellis, one of the White Sox's few post-draft free agent signings last year, hit .289/.357/.316 and stole three bases in three attempts, which is encouraging starting point for somebody who can play center field every day while negotiating the jump from the University of Texas to High-A. Mendoza's hit tool wasn't as productive over the same stretch (.227/.308/.364), but he hit his first A-ball homer and only struck out four times over 26 plate appearances.

Everybody else on this list is either lying low or sliding in the wrong direction. Bryce Bush is an exception, I suppose, but only because he's on the injured list. He's played in one game since May 12.

Starting Pitching Prospects

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Martin
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5
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21
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14
15
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9
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8
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1
1" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="BB" col_content="BB
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4
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24
31
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2.63
3.43
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With Bilous in Birmingham, Davis Martin gets some time to shine. He marred his run-prevention numbers with a rough debut, but opponents are hitting just .143/.179/.206 against him over his last four starts. He's racked up 27 strikeouts against just three walks over those 19 innings. Johan Dominguez might be successful because of his age (25), but he started his pro ball career old for the level, making his debut in the Dominican Summer League at age 20, and he's pitched well just about everywhere he's been since, so here's a nod to somebody making life in Winston-Salem a little easier for everybody.

Isaiah Carranza saw his super-smooth introduction to pro ball come crashing down to reality. After giving up one run over his first eight innings, he's surrendered 14 runs over his last 10, with more walks (nine) than strikeouts (six). These are his first pitches in pro ball despite being drafted in 2018, so this kind of turbulence was to be expected.

Relief Prospects

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Ramsey
Shilling" col_column_min_width="88px" col_tcell_cell_color="#c1434b" col_tcell_cell_align_horz="left" col_tcell_cell_align_vert="center" col_rhead_cell_color="#c1434b" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default" col_tcell_text_text_color="#000000" col_rhead_text_text_color="#FFFFFF"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="G" col_content="G
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8
8" col_tcell_cell_align_horz="center" col_tcell_cell_align_vert="center" _builder_version="4.9.4" _module_preset="default"][/dvmd_table_maker_item][dvmd_table_maker_item col_label="IP" col_content="IP
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2
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It took Luke Shilling eight outings before he surrendered the first runs of a pro career that theoretically started in 2018. He gave up two runs on three hits and two walks in an inning of work against Hickory on Thursday, but it's still a fine first month, all things considered. Caleb Freeman has been his brand of effectively wild.

I'm putting 2018 23rd-rounder Lane Ramsey on this list because stands 6'9" and he's throwing nothing but strikes. He's also an Oklahoma product, so you could call him a refined version of Alec Hansen in both respects.

Kannapolis Cannon Ballers

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Overview

Last two series: 1-5 vs. Columbia; 0-6 @Carolina
Record: 2-22
Next two series: @Fayetteville, vs. Carolina
Individual stats

Oh Kannapolis. Poor, pitiful Kannapolis. The Cannon Ballers have the worst record in the minors by a full two games. Even the Fredericksburg Nationals have climbed three games ahead, because they closed their last week by winning the last two.

There’s a little bit of good news, in that the offense as a whole made some progress over the last two weeks, and José Rodriguez is no longer the only productive position player prospect. The pitching remains an active problem, allowing a baseball-worst eight run per game. The Carolina Mudcats detonated on the Kannapolis staff for 46 runs over the first three games last week before things calmed down, but no matter how you slice it, the average margin of a Kannapolis Cannon Ballers game is still 8-3.

It’d be worse if their roster weren’t so young, but given so many players on both sides of the ball are making full-season debuts on aggressive timelines, there should be nowhere to go but up. There’s just small solace in saying that when the team’s record and ERA suggests it’d be nearly impossible to do worse.

Position Player Prospects

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The Kannapolis lineup is now two, maybe 2½ prospects deep. Joining José Rodriguez is Bryan Ramos, who started showing why he's my favorite international signing in the White Sox system by hitting .279/.373/.465 over the past two weeks. He's striking out a third of the time, but he also led all Cannon Ballers with six walks, so he's getting some use out of deep counts.

Caberea Weaver also made some noise by homering three times, which matches his career total over 112 games entering this season. His wispy frame was expected to fill out when the White Sox signed him away from a commitment to Georgia, and there's some power as early proof. Just don't look at the strike-zone numbers right now.

The rest of the lineup is still a mess, with the White Sox trying to instill some plate discipline by adding older first basmen like Tyler Osik and A.J. Gill to the roster. That's helped, but it's come at the expense of playing time for Sam Abbott.

The roster should also get a boost from the return of Chase Krogman, who looks like he's ready based on the video from Arizona. He was last seen leaving the game on May 6 after two plate appearances.

Pitching Prospects

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Jared Kelley might’ve had the best time of anybody on the Kannapolis staff over the last two weeks, mostly because the White Sox skipped his last turn. That’s ostensibly for workload reasons, although that’ll be tested when he makes his next appearance.

Matthew Thompson can claim a moral victory, even if he’s still searching for his first professional win. After getting roughed up for seven runs over 1 1/3 innings against Carolina on Tuesday, he rebounded by throwing three scoreless innings against that same Mudcats team on Sunday, striking out six against two hits and two walks. It’s the first time in his seven pro outings where he had more strikeouts than innings pitched.

Hopefully Andrew Dalquist can continuing following Thompson, as he gave up five runs over just four outs when he started against Carolina on Friday.

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