PREAMBLE
We heard for years all about the value of financial flexibility. It may not have been Getz who said it, but he’s the one who gets to take advantage of clean books after 2027.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Miguel Vargas: Tender
- Brenton Doyle: Tender
- Joey Bart: Non-tender
- Huascar Brazobán: Non-tender
- Jordan Leasure: Non-tender
- Chris Murphy: Non-tender
Vargas is a no-brainer, and I’m choosing to believe in Ryan Fuller and the front office targeting Doyle. The rest don’t offer enough over other options for me to pick them up.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- None
I would continue talking to Newcomb all the way until he ends up signing a deal that pays him upward of $8M/year. If he can take something closer to $12M/2, or even a one year deal, I’d be all over that, but I think he’s getting paid.
I’m also very open to league minimum types of deals with Fedde, Richards, Grichuk, or Rogers, but I believe they can all do better. Reunions if they get DFA’ed sound great, if a need arises.
FREE AGENTS
No 1. Sonny Gray (3 years, $75M)
This deal features an opt out after year one, and a team option with a buyout of $5M after year 2. Maybe he can be acquired for less, as some sites are suggesting, but this is in line with Spotrac. I’m betting on him being a roughly 3.5 ERA guy and making 30+ starts. If he can do that, maybe he opts out, and it’s a one year deal for $25M. This buys time for the young guys to prove they can start, for the front office to identify who they want to trade, or who becomes a pen arm.
No 2. Seiya Suzuki (4 years, $120M)
Time to break a franchise record! I’ve been eyeing Seiya since he came over from Japan, and whether I’m right or wrong, I never thought he needed to be a primary DH in the last couple of years. If he has to move to LF, I trust he can do it. If he plays RF so Braden can develop in AAA, I trust him to be better than average, even if aging brings him closer to that level than his 2026 season suggests he could be. I’m open to including an opt out in this deal as well, ideally after 2 years instead of 1. We don’t know yet whether or not the QO and it’s penalties are going away, and I’d love 2 good years if the Sox might give up anything in the draft.
No 3. Robbie Ray (1 year, $20M)
I’m signing Ray to be a fifth starter with experience to pass along to younger lefties. If he can pitch better than that, I think the $20M is well worth the expense. If he can’t, there’s no such thing as a bad one year deal.
TRADES
I’m open to trading Benintendi, or Castillo to get a reliever Banister believes in. I’m assuming it would be a salary swap, not dump, and even more than that, I’m assuming a deal like that isn’t going to happen.
SUMMARY
Position Players (13):
(C) Kyle Teel, Edgar Quero (he’s inevitable, and I am hoping he can find a way to undo whatever he did last year to get back to his rookie form. If not, Drew Romo…?)
(1B) Munetaka Murakami, Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery (just trying to find ways to keep his back healthy - I’m interested to see if he can do 1B in Spring Training)
(2B) Chase Meidroth, Sam Antonacci, Brooks Baldwin
(SS) Colson, Meidroth, Baldwin…?
(3B) Vargas, Colson, Antonacci…?, Baldwin…?
(LF) Seiya Suzuki, Tristen Peters, Baldwin
(CF) Peters, Brenton Doyle, Baldwin
(RF) Braden Montgomery, Seiya, Doyle
(DH) Antonacci, Andrew Benintendi, Murakami, Teel
Pitchers (13):
- Sonny Gray
- Sean Burke
- Davis Martin
- Grant Taylor
- Robbie Ray
CL. Jordan Hicks
SU. Mike Vasil, Anthony Kay
MR. Bryan Hudson, Tyler Davis
LR. Tyler Schweitzer, Shane Smith, Luis Castillo
AAA Rotation:
Hagen Smith, Noah Schultz, Tanner McDougal, Drew Thorpe, and David Sandlin
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My idea here isn’t necessarily great, but it’s simple. Get Vargas another righty to relieve some pressure, especially someone who can be an every day OF player. Add some experience to a rotation that needed it, reward Taylor with the opportunity to start if it’s what he wants, and keep the high talent starting pitching options stretched out in AAA. I’m more than happy to move Taylor back to the pen and call AAA starters up to his spot or the spots of others as needed. Other than Seiya Suzuki, the hope is that the roster has zero commitments after 2027, which is why I pushed WAY past Jim’s cap. This is Jerry’s last chance at another championship, and whether it’s getting a cash infusion from Ishbia or taking it from next year’s payroll, I think he can push the chips in this year. I believe I’ve added $75M in payroll while opting not to bring back about $6.5M, bringing the payroll up to $190M. But again, $70M falls off going into 2028 already, plus another $20M if they signed Ray, leaving them with financial flexibility next year too!!
I’m not extending anyone yet. Colson, Vargas, Bonemer, Roch, Carlson, and I’m sure someone else I’m forgetting all have the potential to man either SS, 3B, or possibly a corner OF, and I’d like one more year to see who is best in each spot, and who is a big league regular. Wait to extend until we know a guy is worth extending, because maybe Ishbia is going to be fine running $200M payrolls.
