2021 MLB Draft Watch: Three college pitchers on the rise

Happy College World Series Day! Returning to Omaha after the COVID-19 pandemic canceled last year’s event, the last remaining eight schools will start the final rounds of postseason play. Here’s this weekend’s schedule: 

Saturday, June 19:

Stanford vs. NC State - 1:00 pm CT

Vanderbilt vs. Arizona - 6:00 pm CT

Sunday, June 20: 

Tennessee vs. Virginia - 1:00 pm CT

Texas vs. Mississippi State - 6:00 pm CT

Unfortunately for me, my Arkansas pick to win it all got upset by NC State. I’m still sticking with half of my championship prediction in that Mississippi State will win Bracket 2. For Bracket 1, I mean, it’s going to be challenging to beat both Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter in a double-elimination format. Arizona has a good offense, and the Wolfpack are no strangers to upsetting the party this postseason, but I trust the Vandy Boys will find a way. 

What’s great about this year’s College World Series from an MLB Draft perspective is watching several first-round arms. In addition to Rocker and Leiter, we get a chance to watch a Ty Madden vs. Will Bednar matchup. Also, Andrew Abbott has been throwing well for Virginia this past month and has seen his draft stock continue to rise. Abbott jumped 13 spots in the latest Top 100 Average Draft Rankings. Updated rankings below after Baseball America expanded their prospect list to a Top 500. 

Updated Top 100 Average Draft Rankings

Speaking of Abbott, he’s one of three college starting pitchers who I think have made a lot of money for themselves this postseason. 

Gavin Williams, RHP, East Carolina

The Kumar Rocker vs. Gavin Williams Super Regional matchup did not disappoint. It was a busy day for the Pitching Ninja as both Rocker and Williams struck out 13 in seven-plus innings. 

Williams has been a Top 50 prospect in this draft class, but after that performance in Nashville might have bumped himself into the late first round of picks. Currently ranked #34 in the Top 100 Average Draft Rankings, Williams possesses big-time velocity, often hitting triple digits in bullpens. The concerns for Williams have been injuries and consistency. After only pitching three innings in 2020, Williams returned to East Carolina and had a terrific season. Making 12 starts after pitching out of the bullpen in his first three appearances in 2021, Williams struck out 130 batters in 81.1 innings pitched. Opposing hitters only batted .193 against Williams and had three home runs. Williams also cut down on his walk rate from a 4.2 BB/9 his Sophomore season in 2019 to 2.32 in 2021. 

In his last start, Williams consistently pumped fastballs 98+ mph while mixing in a curveball, slider, and changeup. The secondary pitches have promise, especially the slider and changeup. At times Williams arsenal reminds me of Michael Kopech. What he needs to work on in the next level is consistency throwing strikes with the four pitches. There will always be a reliever risk because a team might be tempted to shoot Williams through the farm system and develop in a bullpen because of his fastball velocity. Given time, I think Williams has a chance to be a mid-rotation starter that could post 30% K-rates in the majors. 

Will Bednar, RHP, Mississippi State

Notre Dame got to Will Bednar in the Super Regionals, knocking him out the third inning by collecting seven hits and four runs off the Mississippi State righty. A couple of other clunkers were against Ole Miss and Tennessee, but Bednar has been a rock for the Aggies outside of those three starts. His three-pitch mix of fastball, changeup, and slider has a chance to be 50-grade or better. Velocity often sits at 94-mph and, early in his starts, gets bumped up to 96 mph. The slider tunnels well with the fastball as it just drops off the table against right-handed hitters. I like Bednar’s changeup and would like to see him throw it more as it has a 10-mph difference from his fastball. 

The one thing I ponder while watching Bednar is his long-arm throwing motion. I wonder if any team that selects Bednar has him make an adjustment we’ve seen Lucas Giolito and other major league pitchers make by shortening up the throwing motion. It might help Bednar get a tick or two on his fastball velocity along the way. 

Andrew Abbott, LHP, Virginia 

After not getting selected in last year’s five-round MLB Draft, Andrew Abbott returned to Virginia and was promptly made their Friday starter in 2021. Abbott did not disappoint as he struck out 152 batters in 100.2 innings pitched. His three-pitch mix consists of a four-seam that Abbott likes to throw in the upper part of the zone, often sitting at 92 mph. Plus, a curveball and changeup that can be 50-grade offerings. 

Going against Abbott is his body frame. He’s just 6’0” and 180 lbs, so Abbott does not have a power pitcher build that teams often want spending first-round bonus money. In addition, 2021 was Abbott’s first year as a starter, having pitched out of the bullpen in his first three years. That’s why for months, Abbott was on the radar for rounds 4-6 in the MLB Draft. 

If Abbott can continue his strong showings this postseason against Tennessee, I have to imagine that squarely puts him in the second-round territory. 

Colson Montgomery - Indiana State Final on Tuesday

With Kiley McDaniel picking Colson Montgomery to the White Sox in his latest mock draft, I think it’s safe to assume the prep shortstop is on top of the draft board. There are whispers of Montgomery’s price to be around $2.5 million to forgo his commitment to Indiana University. With a first-round draft bonus slot of $3,027,000, that amount fits well for the White Sox. Maybe they could get Montgomery underslot and use the additional $500K to grab another Top-50 prospect in the second round. 

That bonus requirement is why there are teams ahead of the White Sox that are now considering Montgomery. The Chicago Cubs at Pick 21 have been scouting Montgomery as of late, and even the New York Mets are on his tail. I don’t think the Mets would take Montgomery 10th overall, but they have the 46th pick and could be creative in offering a bonus of $2.5+ million to take him in the second round. 

Montgomery has one more game this season as Southridge High will be playing the 3A State Final at Victory Field in Indianapolis on Tuesday, June 22. IHSAA will be streaming the game which starts at 4:00 pm CT. 

After the State Final, Montgomery could make his way to Cary, North Carolina, for the MLB Draft Combine that will be taking place from June 20 to 28th. Major League Baseball will be posting data and results from the prospects who participate. The combine would be a good opportunity for Montgomery to solidify his first-round standing.