Spice’s Offseason Plan – Lets Ride

10:57 AM CDT on October 22, 2020

PREAMBLE

The White Sox should approach this offseason with the goal of entering next season as not only the clear favorites to win the Central, but a truly legitimate top 3-5 World Series contending team. Rick, with my offseason plan we will be in that category. This team showed you what it’s capable of, most will only get better and there are more elite prospect reinforcements still to come. Give this team that final adrenaline shot in the arm they need with more big signings and they will enter 2021 on a scorch the AL warpath. Teams respond to major acquisitions, which is why elite prospects are mortgaged almost every year at the trade deadline. Think about the Astros with Cole, the Royals with Cueto. It fires them up. This is why you cannot patch any more positions of need together. Kopech returning, Vaughn, and a healthy, elite-again Moncada should just be gravy to what gets supplemented externally this winter. The needs are obvious, but here’s how I’d rank them -- 1) Frontline Starter 2) RF 3) Mid-starter 4) depth

ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS

Write “tender,” “non-tender” or “rework/extend” after each player

Nomar Mazara: $5.6M | $5.9M | $5.7M
- Non-Tender. Thanks for those couple of RBI singles in the last week of the season. Also, congrats on the 1 HR against our new Ace.
Carlos Rodón: $4.5M | $4.5M | $4.5M
- Non-Tender. See ya later. Way to live up to the hype of the 3rd overall pick
Lucas Giolito: $2.5M | $5.3M | $2.5M
- Tender, not sure I’m ready for a big extension just yet. Please God don’t be the only SP prospect to hit.
Reynaldo López: $1.7M | $2.2M | $1.7M
- Hesitant to tender, but Lopez offers depth. Stipulating that 2020 should be the official move to bullpen
Evan Marshall: $1.3M | $1.9M | $1.4M
- Chicken tenders
Adam Engel: $1M | $1.4M | $1M
- Chicken tenders. Engel is the ultimate 4th OFer.
Jace Fry: $800K | $1M | $800K
- Tender for insurance with Bummer injury
Yolmer Sánchez: Uncertain
- See you never

CLUB OPTIONS

Write “pick up” or “decline” or “rework” after the option.

Edwin Encarnación: $12M
- Decline. No explanation needed
Gio González: $7M ($500K buyout)
- Decline. Kopech + the 2 starters I sign give us the depth you never provided.
Leury García: $3.5M ($250K buyout)
- Pick-up. #LeuryLegend has sneaky been a solid bat all these years and the switch-hitting + multiple-position flexibility is good for a bench piece.

OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS

Try to retain, or let go?

Alex Colomé (Made $10,532,500 in 2020)
- Let go. Time for Bummer to close. Colome's peripherals have always been worse than his front-line metrics, despite all the success. It would be very White Sox to sign him for past performance, but I’m hoping Colome (rightfully so) simply asks for too much to retain.
James McCann (Made $5.4M in 2020)
- Let go. Jimmy has been my favorite player the last 2 seasons. But big-boy organizations don’t overpay for 2 starting catchers. McCann deserves a big pay-day and a starting job. I hope he gets both and crushes. Like Colome, he’ll probably ask for way more than Hahn should be willing to pay.
Jarrod Dyson (Made $2M in 2020)
- Let go. We’ll get another one of you at the next deadline if we need to.

COACHING STAFF

Manager: AJ Hinch
Pitching coach: Matt Zaleski (Charlotte pitching coach)
- Neither of these are difficult. For the morally concerned, Cora ran the show in Houston. Hinch is so much better than any other option, besides the very unproven Alamor Jr in my opinion. Everyone needs to suck it up and know that he’s the lesser (or least) of many evils from that team.
- Assuming Hinch is on board, Zaleski is also an easy decision. Knows all the young arms well, and is very analytically-minded. He’s already done an awesome job bringing a lot of these guys through our system.

FREE AGENTS

No. 1: Trevor Bauer (two year, $55 million): This is your adrenaline shot. This is your big ticket, we are going for it all signing. Bauer’s agent recently tweeted that despite what Bauer previously said, they will listen to any length of deal. I like 2 years for the Sox for a few different reasons. 1) Bauer has had down seasons and this is just the 2nd year (2018 w/ CLE) he’s been legit Cy Young level 2) a shorter deal is more likely to entice our beloved owner to open his wallet 3) one year deal makes him feel a little too much like a rental/mercenary in my view. 2 years gives him a little more skin in the organization for both him and the trust, and comradery of the other guys. Bauer is also an obsessive student of pitching, analyzing himself and others. This could do wonders for guys like Cease, Dunning and Kopech. I think they will all latch on to him as a mentor and teacher immediately. Lastly, I love Giolito and think he deserves the “ace” status but I don’t think he is and may ever be to the level of the true-blue Aces that he would, otherwise, face in a game 7 or win-or-go-home scenario - Bieber, Cole, Glasnow, and Verlander are all simply on another level and all lead the other best teams in the AL the Sox will be up against. He did throw an unbelievable game and looked like that in his 1 playoff appearance. BUT, Bauer still needs to be the man to meet those other studs head-to-head. We also saw Kuechel get hit around too, so having 2 elite SPs with playoff shut down potential is a good thing and usually what most WS teams have. Any other SP on the market is simply depth IMO, even Stroman. The White Sox NEED to make their rotation elite, not just longer.

No. 2: Michael Brantley (three year, $54 million): If the White Sox do in fact splurge to get Bauer, I wonder if they settle for a cheaper, and younger Joc Pederson instead. Also, the idea of Springer + Bauer is too unrealistic to even fantasize about, so I won’t. Ideally, Brantley with his age takes a 2 year deal or we get him for less money but this may be a scenario that the Sox need to over-extend beyond their comfort zone a bit to shore up the biggest hole in their lineup. Joc may give you more financial upside, but he is coming off a horrendous year and will never be more than a platoon bat. A platoon of Engel/Pederson could be similar to the 2020 fiasco and I’d rather have Engel reserved for depth or to give Eloy some DH flexibility if Vaughn doesn’t deliver immediately or spends time in the minors. I know he’s 34 yr old, and watching what we just got from EE makes me quiver typing this, but Brantley has been as consistent of a bat as it gets the last 3 years. He gives you a desperately needed LH bat, he hits for avg. (slashing .309/.370/.497 in last 2 seasons with Houston) and still brings power without selling-out for it (a quality I think distinctly separates him from the EEs, LaRoches and Dunns that haunted us, and all saw their careers deteriorate with age). His contact rate, and K rate are among the best in the league every year. He also has injury baggage but has stayed, for the most part, healthy and the on-field in what should be his more fragile 30+ years. A more risky bet for the Sox then Bauer, but Brantley’s much better at defense and has the ability to hit RHP and LHP to give him the much higher floor than Joc.

No. 3: Jose Quintana (one year, $6 million): capitalize on his down years with the Cubs and see if old Jose can be revived back on the south side to give you another LH SP and/or long lefty reliever.

No. 4: Tyler Flowers (two year, $10 million): another Sox reunion here. He’s obviously a step-down from McCann, but Flowers gives you avg. defense that is out-weighed by elite pitch framing. He also better offensively than some of your other, affordable back-up options

No. 5: Kevin Pillar (two year, $12 million): I hesitate here between OF and IF depth, but I think I’d be willing to let Garcia and Mendick back-up your IF and have Pillar bring you more needed OF depth especially with the injury risk of Eloy and Brantley. Pillar gives you a gritty, October experienced, veteran that could be a great locker room presence for the rest of your young OF. Pillar is also coming off a great year offensively. He may not be as strong defensively right now as Engel, but he is still above avg. in the OF, doesn’t make errors, and can still make flashy plays. He’s and also be a good late game replacement still more than Eloy, and also he wouldn’t need to be double switched in the line-up like Dyson would.

Non-tendering almost everyone, and not signing McCann and Colome gives the White Sox no excuse to not make this type of investment. We’re in win now mode and you’ll have a full stadium next year Jerry, so lets ride.

TRADES

I don’t think the White Sox should make any splashy trades in the winter, and this is mainly because they don’t know right now what kind of prospect depth they have. As far as position players, the only 2 marketable ones right now are Madrigal and Vaughn. They shouldn’t be ready to part with either - especially not Vaughn who needs to be the eventual replacement of Abreu. After those two, it's a massive drop-off in value as of right now.

On the pitching side, I’d maybe be okay with parting with any combination or one of Cease/Dunning/Lopez but I don’t think the return you’d get now would be worth more than their unreached ceilings (especially Cease and Dunning), given their brief trials in the majors haven’t been spectacular. I’m definitely not okay with parting with Kopech yet either. You also have to imagine the Sox are licking their chops at the idea of long-term Crochet after that electric clinic he put on in his minor-league-less, cup of coffee in 2020. Based on all the above, I only see 2 trade scenarios happening, both taking place next mid-season or beyond. 1) Cease/Dunning/Lopez all improve to the point where we have a surplus of quality starters and we can move 1 for another need. 2) They start to shop the rest of their minor-league pitching depth - Jared Kelly, Jonathan Stiever, Matthew Thompson, Andrew Dalquist. All of them likely need a more minor league work to reach their full trade value potential.

SUMMARY

The line-up and rotation puts the White Sox as AL central favorites immediately, and more importantly - in a class with the Yankees, Rays, and Astros to start multiple World Series runs . Lets ride..

Line-up (RHP)