Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections for individual teams aren't usually published on FanGraphs at the same point of every offseason. For a team that is featured early in one offseason, then late in next year's cycle, the disparity in the amount of work remaining might limit the value in comparing the posts.
For the 2026 White Sox, however, the gap could be kind of instructive.
Last year, the White Sox's projections were posted on Jan. 13, when just about all major moves had been made. They signed Michael A. Taylor, Mike Clevinger and Travis Jankowski after publication, and claimed Mike Vasil, Brandon Eisert, Jacob Amaya and Owen White off waivers, but given that all those players were intended for bench and bullpen roles -- and only a couple of them had major league track records of any note -- they didn't figure to alter the landscape all that much.
This winter, FanGraphs posted the White Sox's projections on Monday, after they overhauled the bottom quarter of their 40-man roster, but before Chris Getz has acquired anyone who immediately projects to be a regular. That makes an apples-apples comparison impossible when you stack the depth charts one over the other, but understanding that one chart represents more or less the complete vision for a season, and the other represents the foundation, you can see the areas that have improved, and the areas that desperately need attention.
This is a disheartening set of numbers when it comes to the idea of the 2026 White Sox playing a median-quality brand of baseball, but at least ZiPS sees a few positives with some staying power. To list them:
Signs of progress
Shane Smith: Before he showed up to spring training throwing multiple ticks harder and immediately taking to a changeup that had eluded him before, he was a Rule 5 pick cast into bullpen work as part of a pitching staff entirely projected for below-average ERAs. Now he's headlining a rotation and not just by default, as ZiPS puts him down for a 3.98 ERA over 144⅔ innings.
Colson Montgomery: Considering Montgomery hit .239/.311/.529 over 71 MLB games last year, his ZiPS projection (.216/.292/.410) looks laughably pessimistic. It did move the needle from his 2025 projections (.204/.298/.327), particularly in the power department. Gaining 71 points of ISO from one year to another strikes me as "not nothing" when considering the inherently conservative nature of projection systems.
Dividends from the Garrett Crochet trade: Kyle Teel (2.3 WAR) is projected as the White Sox's most valuable player, and Chase Meidroth is bolstering the middle infield picture. Wikelman González should get a chance to outperform his projected impact (5.35 ERA, 0.0 WAR), given that his track record is all over the place, and Braden Montgomery is just starting to surface.
The bullpen: The White Sox bullpen is no longer "the worst unit that ZiPS has ever projected," according to Szymborski in the 2025 post. That seems to be mostly from Grant Taylor's quality and Mike Vasil's quantity, rather than an across-the-board boost in competence, but still.
Here are the areas where work remains -- lots of it, in some cases.
Notable deficiencies
The bullpen: You can make the argument that the White Sox are robbing Peter to pay Paul by relegating Taylor to the bullpen at this point in his career, and even then, it barely gets them above replacement level.
The outfield: The White Sox aren't making any big promises with Everson Pereira, so it stands that the front office has not yet begun to fight. That said, unless they're able to spend far more money than they're letting on, they probably won't be able to acquire players proven enough to drastically alter the complexion of the projections.
Rotation depth: Smith progressing and Davis Martin holding ground in his first full MLB season are development wins for the pitching staff, but Duncan Davitt shouldn't yet be any MLB rotation's fourth favorite.
All the corners: Chris Getz isn't wrong to prioritize up-the-middle talent at this stage, but it's strange to see a White Sox team so bereft of production at any and all of the traditional bat-first spots. Miguel Vargas and Lenyn Sosa are doing a lot of the lifting, and they probably should be mutually exclusive on the 2027 White Sox roster, if not before.
Speaking of infielders, there's one particular projection that falls into both buckets.
Could go either way
Sam Antonacci: He isn't featured on the depth chart visual above, but for the WAR projections that aren't weighted by projected playing time, Antonacci's 2.1 WAR is good for third-highest on the team, thanks mostly to the middle number in a .245/.354/.339 slash line and the assumed value of a middle infield position (see: Vinny Capra, currently a free agent, at 1.1 WAR). It'd be great if the White Sox could somehow get that kind of quick turnaround from a fifth-round selection they made just two seasons earlier, but it feels rather bullish considering it only projects four homers, and Antonacci isn't expected to be an exceptional second baseman.
At this point, we can say that it's evidence of a high floor that the White Sox could test earlier than expected should the depth chart rattle his way, and Antonacci's handedness will work in his favor there. But it's probably fair to expect his staying power to mirror his in-game power, at least until he learns his way around an MLB game's margins.
