PREAMBLE
I'm sure I said something along these lines 365 days ago, but this winter/season is time to turn the corner. While last year I thought that meant stealing the headlines and pissing off Cubs fans by finagling a Harper signing and Stroman trade, I'm starting to think a greater balance of big-league talent and optionality will be the Sox's flavor of this next chapter. While I rung the payroll up pretty high (someone make sure Jerry doesn't have a heart attack after Rick pulls this all off), these deals keep a lot of options open going forward by giving most of the farm a chance to recoup its value (before shipping it all off for KB and Mookie) and spreading the fiscal love across several additions, while keeping total new guaranteed money below what any one superstar would garner.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M - Tender. A lot of money for someone who probably won't be closing for a playoff team, but these past few postseasons have really underscored the need for bullpen depth (Nationals aside).
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M - Non-tender, then pour one out.
- James McCann, $4.9M - Tender.
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M - Non-tender, with plans to sign a contract outside the arbitration process. I'm thinking $3mm. At the end of the day he's worth the tender regardless, to me.
- Leury García, $4M - Tender, to be addressed later.
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M - Tender.
- Josh Osich, $1M - Non-tender.
- Ryan Goins, $900K - Non-tender, minor league contract.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout - Sucks to have to pay this. If only there was something we could do about that...
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) - Retain. Whatever happens, happens. I'm hoping it's in the $28mm / 2 years range, team option wouldn't hurt either.
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) - Let go.
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) - Ha. See ya. Unless ancestry.com tells me he and a certain Brewers catcher are distant cousins.
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) - Return on a minor league deal. It'll happen whether I condone it or not.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Zack Wheeler (five years, $90 million). I really have no idea what Reynaldo is, but everything I've seen so far indicates that Giolito, Cease, and Kopech will be meaningful rotation guys. Problem is, only Gio has put together a long enough stretch of success out of those three to prove he is a top-two starter. Bringing Wheeler into the mix mitigates the downside that the other guys never earn top-of-rotation status. Wheeler's injuries seem to be behind him, and his stuff sure would be fun to watch every fifth day.
No. 2: Yasmani Grandal (four years, $72 million). Has to be the second-most-common target from Sox fans after JD. I'm picking Grandal over Martinez to be the offseason's big lineup boon because he walks more, bats from both sides, and would provide a huge defensive upgrade.
No. 3 Will Smith (three years, $30 million). Tossing Smith onto this heap may be where my plan veers from likelihood, but I think whichever contender gets him at this number is locking in value.
No. 4: Alex Wood (one year, $8 million). This is it. This is finally time for a mid-level free agent to pay off for the Sox. He'll compete for the back end of the rotation while Kopech and Rodon recover.
No. 5: Nate Jones (minor league deal). Reinsdorf Loyalty™ at its finest.
TRADES
No. 1: Leury Garcia, Thyago Vieira, and cash considerations to Chicago Cubs for Victor Caratini. A modification to a mid-season trade with the Cubs that I dreamed up, but this one doesn't fit in quite as neatly. Maybe we'll just pretend it happened at the last deadline with some slightly different terms. Regardless, Willson Contreras should be healthy next year and Miguel Amaya will eventually make his way to the north side of town, so the Sox get a pitcher-whisperer who's consistent-yet-unspectacular from both sides of the plate. The cash element can be structured as the Descalso contract being dumped to the Sox, since apparently the Cubs are broke now.
No. 2: Dane Dunning and Zack Collins to Baltimore Orioles for Trey Mancini. I can count the non-Sox related innings of Orioles baseball I watched last year on one finger, but Mancini is a stud. His arbitration numbers will get high considering his counting stats, but the control is nice regardless. Considered swapping Stiever for Dunning, but no way was I going to trade a Hoosier. Losing Collins hurts, but I'm confident in the organizational depth above and below him.
No. 3: Gavin Sheets, Jose Ruiz, and Yermin Mercedes to Los Angeles Dodgers for Joc Pederson. It finally happened! Seems a bit like the Dodgers just want to get rid of his figure at this point. Sheets is a nice prize for them, and the influx of 1B/DH makes his future with the Sox murky.
And the blockbuster you've been waiting for...........
No. 4: Welington Castillo, $.25mm international signing pool money, and the Bulls 2021 second round pick to Texas Rangers for Jonah McReynolds and restocking the vending machines for a year. I'd really love to know who comes up with these Reinsdorf cash grabs. Does the old man actually know how these things work? Can't someone just convince him the Sox are out of pool money and the Bulls are out of picks?
40-MAN / SERVICE TIME CONSIDERATIONS
Left exposed for Rule 5 Draft:
- Alec Hansen
- Zach Thompson
- Kyle Kubat
- Spencer Adams
- Nate Nolan
Fair to say I won't be losing too much sleep leading up to December 12
Likely to bounce on and off the 40-man:
- Daniel Palka, never gonna give you up
- Ryan Goins
Contract extensions:
- Lucas Giolito (six years, ~$55 million). He has described his family's affluent background before and received a $2.9mm signing bonus, but I think there's sufficient motive on both sides. The deal should be something near the Snell / Severino / Marquez numbers, but the White Sox will be paying a bit of a premium for locking up two of his UFA years. 2020 cash: $3.5mm.
- Nick Madrigal (eight years, ~$60 million). The Sox plan to contend in 2020. Madrigal will be the full-time second baseman. It will take him a couple months of adjustment to get used to big league pitching. Kris Bryant is going to lose that lawsuit. Sox leadership will continue to be mindful of service time. If all these things end up being true, as I expect, I want Madrigal in the Bigs on Opening Day. The $6mm+ signing bonus Madrigal received will give him strong leverage in negotiations, but that extra $.5mm from the Beef trade will surely bridge the gap. 2020 cash: $2.5mm.
Will Luis Robert be on the Opening Day roster? No, sorry. Man of Steal, time to prove you've turned it around for real.
SUMMARY
Below is what the 40-man would look like after the TJ guys recover, say around June:
This group of position players mashes the ball, gets on base, and plays decent defense (just gotta get TA a couple more reps...).
The pitching staff has a clear top-two duo in Giolito and Wheeler, veteran anchors in the bullpen, and upside throughout. There's also a contingent of high-potential arms in Charlotte that should see considerable MLB time.
I'd say the biggest weaknesses after this offseason are:
- Postseason pedigree - Smith, Grandal, and Pederson have seen their fair share of October baseball, but a starting staff completely devoid of playoff experience is worrisome
- Defense at key positions - Catcher and first base will improve, but below-average fielders at shortstop/corner outfield spots and Robert's inexperience playing MLB center field are red flags
- Health - At this point I've just conceded that five guys in the system will undergo Tommy John every year
- Blue-chip prospects - The Baseball America phase has been fun, but all these promotions will leave the cupboard substantially dry of serious developmental talent
- Payroll flexibility - This would be the big offseason for the Sox, and future efforts would likely go towards managing the salary commitments for all these future hall of famers through their arb years
