PREAMBLE
I somehow trust the front office this offseason. I hope that the money is spent and is spent well. Obviously the Sox are not going to go crazy and sign Cole or Rendon, so I hope that they don’t pretend they can sign one of them and ultimately fail at the end and waste another whole offseason. No more of the Dylan Coveys, Manny Banuelos, Hector Santiagos, or Jon Jays. The Sox need to get rid of the fringe major leaguers and AAAA scrubs.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Alex Colomé, $10.3M - TENDER - The money may be a lot but he plays an important role on this team. He is needed because he is a consistent closer who gets the job done.
- Yolmer Sánchez, $6.2M - NON-TENDER - I’m not paying $6.2 million for a defense-only player when we have a gold glove winner in the minors who also hits .300.
- James McCann, $4.9M - TENDER - Obviously.
- Carlos Rodon, $4.5M - TENDER - I’m not giving up yet. $4.5 million ain’t terrible.
- Leury García, $4M - TENDER - He is going to be the utility guy in 2020.
- Evan Marshall, $1.3M - TENDER - Solid bullpen guy who is going to be the middle reliever. He had a 2.49 ERA last year and 185 ERA+ last year, very solid.
- Josh Osich, $1M - NON-TENDER
- Ryan Goins, $900K - NON-TENDER - No need. We have Madrigal/Mendick.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Welington Castillo: $8 million/$500,000 buyout - DECLINE - Take your steroids and leave. Unless you want to leave some to bulk up Madrigal.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Jose Abreu (made $16M in 2019) - RETAIN - 2 yr/$30 mil with a team option for a third year.
- Iván Nova (made $9,166,167 in 2019) - LET GO - Unless we don’t sign any Starting Pitching depth, I see Nova being let go.
- Jon Jay (made $4M in 2019) - LET GO - Go to San Diego and play with your buddy Manny.
- Hector Santiago (made $2M in 2019 on split contract) - LET GO - I have seen 50 too many Hector Santiago appearances.
FREE AGENTS
Zack Wheeler SP: (5 years, $115 million). I want to sign Wheeler to compliment Giolito in the rotation. I hope his injuries are behind him and he can be our #2. Watching the 2019 Postseason I love what the Nationals have with their pitching. Having 3 elite/all-star starters is key for success. Teams that have bonafide starting pitchers like the Astros, Nationals, Yankees, and Rays succeed in the Postseason while teams that don’t have multiple great starters like the Brewers or A’s don’t have the same success in longer series.
Alex Wood SP/RP: (1 year, $8 million). Wood is coming off of a season where he only appeared 7 times due to back injuries. He gets a 1 year where he has a chance to either be the 5th starter or the long man out of the bullpen. Wood was consistent in LA with the Dodgers and I hope he can return to that form. His career FIP is 3.49. Wood does a good job preventing homers as his HR9 is 0.8. He struggled last season in 35.2 IP while giving up 11 homers but you can basically say those were because of injuries and hope he his healed this season.
Wade Miley SP/RP: (1 year, $6 million). I like the idea of creating competition between the starting pitchers and forcing some accountability. I know Reynaldo Lopez did well in the 2nd half but I honestly don’t believe in Lopez being a starting pitcher. Lopez gets lots of swings and misses and I see him as a reliever. Lopex uses mostly fastballs which in my mind makes him a better reliever. He’ll probably be great next year and prove me wrong about him being a reliever because I said this and that’s fine. Have Lopex prove us wrong and earn his spot. If Lopez performs well as a starter, keep Miley in the bullpen or have Miley replace Wood in the rotation if he is underachieving.
Jason Castro C: (2 years, $12 million with a team option after 1 year). Jason Castro would be a solid backup catcher who his good offensively and defensively. Castro had an above-average OPS+ of 101 and is a left-handed bat.
Jeremy Jeffress RP: (1 year, $2 million). One year after being an All-Star he was released by the Milwaukee Brewers. Bounce back candidate that Coop could fix?
TRADES
Trade Dane Dunning SP, Blake Rutherford OF, and Gavin Sheets 1B to Baltimore for Trey Mancini OF. I used baseballtradevalues.com to make this trade. The trade was accepted as the Sox get 19.70 in value and Orioles receiving 19.40 in value. Trey Mancini is projected to earn $5.7 million in arbitration and his a very solid offensive player. In 2019 he hit 35 dingers, slashed .291/.364/.535, and had a 135 OPS+. He’s a below-average defender which leaves Luis Robert (#LuBob) covering a lot of ground between Eloy and Trey. I am willing to give up unproven prospects to get proven major leaguers at this point in the rebuild. I believe Sheets is blocked by Abreu/Collins and Andrew Vaughn is coming up behind him.
Trade Kelvin Herrera RP and Alec Hansen P to Texas for Shin-Soo Choo and $4 Million. This trade is accepted by baseballtradevalues.com as the Sox receive -9.50 in value and the Rangers receive -8.10 in value. I would guess that the Rangers would want to clear money in order to possibly sign Anthony Rendon or JD Martinez. Choo adds a TON of walks and OBP to the Sox lineup. The Sox desperately need more walks and higher OBPs and even though Choo is expensive, he helps out for this year and is gone after 2020. The Sox give the Rangers Kelvin Herrera to basically trade bad contracts.
SUMMARY
LINEUP
DH- Choo
3B- Moncada
1B- Abreu
RF- Mancini
LF- Jimenez
SS- Anderson
CF- Robert
C- McCann
2B- Madrigal
BENCH
C- Castro
UTL- Garcia
INF- Mendick
DH- Collins
ROTATION
SP- Giolito
SP- Wheeler
SP- Cease
SP- Lopez
SP- Wood
BULLPEN
RP- Miley
RP- Johnson
RP- Marshall
RP- Cordero
RP- Fry
RP- Jeffress
RP- Bummer
RP- Colome
This plan puts the payroll at $114,583,000 if my math is correct. Also, Kopech starts in minors to get used to pitching again and Rodon comes back in the middle of the season and adds $4.5 mil to the payroll. My plan fills holes at SP, Backup C, Corner OF and DH. Instead of going for the big fish I signed many mid-tier players that are both veterans and some younger players. I tried to improve OBP with the lineup and I added some homers. One of my biggest goals was depth, I didn’t want any more fringe players that don’t belong on major league rosters. Injuries to the rotation besides Gio or Wheeler don’t kill us because we have Cease/Lopez/Kopech/Miley/Wood/Rodon to fill in 3 spots.
