The White Sox hit the halfway point of the season with a hard-earned win over Minnesota on Sunday, and they're in much better shape when assessing the situation year over year. At 39-42, they're on pace for a 78-win season. That's a drastic improvement over their 62-100 season in 2018, and an 11-win improvement over their first-half record last season.
They've benefited from a lot of big steps forward with individual production, specifically Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson and Lucas Giolito. Leury García, James McCann and Alex Colomé have maximized their skill sets, and Jose Abreu's having the best kind of pedestrian season (and it wouldn't be below-average if he could guarantee the specific kind of production he's brought to the table). The rebuild's framework has more or less arrived.
The problem is that said framework sits on a limestone foundation that's taken on a lot of rain. The Sox are carrying so much dead weight right now, and while they can replace some of it with high-upside talent over the next six baseball months -- Dylan Cease now, Luis Robert later -- the injuries to the second-tier of the organizational depth chart risk putting the Sox in the same position as the last rebuild, in which they have to hope that lesser half of the roster doesn't completely undermine the contributions from the good half.
As always, we use the occasion to double the numbers to put into perspective the shapes their seasons have taken. I've only included the players whose playing time in the first half approximates the action they're likely to see in the second. Note that the WAR column indicates Baseball-Reference.com's assessments, except for catchers, which uses Baseball Prospectus' WARP to incorporate framing.
Offense
| Name | G | PA | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McCann | 106 | 458 | 72 | 134 | 28 | 0 | 18 | 56 | 8 | 0 | 34 | 114 | .319 | .376 | .514 | .890 | 137 | 2.0 |
| Jose Abreu | 162 | 692 | 82 | 172 | 40 | 0 | 38 | 120 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 158 | .268 | .309 | .508 | .817 | 115 | 1.6 |
| Yolmer Sanchez | 144 | 506 | 48 | 112 | 14 | 4 | 2 | 38 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 114 | .250 | .321 | .313 | .634 | 73 | 1.0 |
| Tim Anderson |
140 | 562 | 78 | 172 | 28 | 0 | 22 | 74 | 30 | 8 | 14 | 118 | .317 | .342 | .491 | .832 | 121 | 3.6 |
| Yoan Moncada | 148 | 624 | 88 | 174 | 32 | 6 | 28 | 88 | 10 | 6 | 42 | 174 | .304 | .357 | .528 | .885 | 134 | 5.0 |
| Eloy Jimenez | 114 | 458 | 60 | 104 | 14 | 0 | 28 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 134 | .246 | .301 | .479 | .780 | 106 | 0 |
| Leury Garcia | 146 | 622 | 112 | 168 | 30 | 0 | 10 | 46 | 16 | 8 | 24 | 138 | .290 | .327 | .393 | .720 | 94 | 3.2 |
| Ryan Cordell | 108 | 298 | 24 | 60 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 24 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 96 | .224 | .288 | .328 | .616 | 66 | -1.6 |
| Charlie Tilson | 94 | 278 | 30 | 64 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 6 | 0 | 18 | 64 | .252 | .312 | .315 | .627 | 71 | -0.6 |
| Jose Rondon | 88 | 260 | 16 | 44 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 66 | .188 | .264 | .265 | .529 | 44 | -1.2 |
| Welington Castillo | 68 | 242 | 14 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 66 | .196 | .289 | .364 | .654 | 75 | -1 |
Five takeaways:
No. 1: Moncada's assertiveness in the batter's box has required sacrifices, most notably to his walk total. Year over year, it's a drop of 25 walks. That said, he's making up the difference and then some with the kinds of hits he's getting. If anything is going to make you anxious in the walk column, the fact that Moncada would still lead the team in that category, and Anderson is going to have to work to reach double-digits when considering his injury.
No. 2: Manny Machado's on pace for a 5-WAR season. His presence would probably take a little away from Moncada's WAR assuming it didn't like his defense as much at second, but the improvement over Sánchez would still be detectable ... and delectable. Mmm.
No. 3: If you're trying to sell somebody on the value of Wins Above Replacement, don't use Abreu or McCann as your leading example. Start with Jiménez, whose issues in left field and shaky command of the strike zone make for a better entry point.
No. 4: I gave Leury Garcia an "A" in my first-half grades on today's podcast, because I don't see how you could expect anything more than a 3-WAR season. Also, 112 runs would be the highest total for a White Sox since Magglio Ordonez's 116 in 2002.
No. 5: Seriously, that's a lot of dead weight.
Pitching
| Name | W-L | ERA | G | SV | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Giolito | 22-4 | 2.72 | 32 | 0 | 192 | 130 | 62 | 58 | 18 | 66 | 230 | 168 | 7.4 |
| Ivan Nova | 6-14 | 5.92 | 34 | 0 | 188.2 | 244 | 132 | 124 | 38 | 50 | 124 | 77 | 0 |
| Reynaldo Lopez | 8-14 | 6.12 | 34 | 0 | 185.1 | 216 | 132 | 126 | 44 | 76 | 166 | 75 | -0.4 |
| Manny Banuelos | 6-8 | 6.90 | 26 | 0 | 91.1 | 108 | 70 | 70 | 24 | 60 | 84 | 66 | -0.8 |
| Dylan Covey | 2-8 | 4.58 | 18 | 0 | 74.2 | 68 | 42 | 38 | 12 | 40 | 44 | 100 | 1 |
| Alex Colome | 6-2 | 2.16 | 66 | 36 | 66.2 | 24 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 52 | 213 | 3 |
| Aaron Bummer | 0-0 | 1.84 | 50 | 2 | 58.2 | 38 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 18 | 60 | 250 | 2.6 |
| Kelvin Herrera | 6-6 | 7.45 | 66 | 0 | 58 | 78 | 48 | 48 | 10 | 22 | 54 | 62 | -1.2 |
| Josh Osich | 0-0 | 5.33 | 46 | 0 | 54 | 54 | 32 | 32 | 14 | 10 | 40 | 86 | 0.2 |
| Jace Fry | 2-6 | 5.40 | 66 | 0 | 53.1 | 48 | 38 | 32 | 6 | 40 | 68 | 85 | -0.6 |
| Juan Minaya | 0-0 | 2.96 | 36 | 0 | 48.2 | 48 | 18 | 16 | 6 | 18 | 52 | 156 | 1 |
| Jose Ruiz | 0-2 | 6.86 | 44 | 0 | 42 | 64 | 32 | 32 | 10 | 26 | 32 | 67 | -0.2 |
| Evan Marshall | 6-2 | 3.15 | 46 | 0 | 40 | 40 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 147 | 0.8 |
| Carson Fulmer | 2-2 | 6.14 | 22 | 0 | 29.1 | 30 | 26 | 20 | 4 | 26 | 34 | 76 | -0.3 |
Five takeaways:
No. 1: Lucas Giolito is having a Chris Sale season, and he'd be on a 200-inning pace of three of his starts weren't cut short (one by injury, two by rain).
No. 2: The WARs for Nova and López show that it takes a certain amount of talent to throw 180 innings in a season, although that certain amount is replacement-level.
No. 3: Floyd Bannister holds the White Sox record for most homers allowed in a season (38 over 229 innings in 1987). That's one reason to watch Nova and López, I suppose. The White Sox as a whole are on pace to get outhomered 240-188.
No. 4: Doubling the numbers helped me realize how goofy Alex Colomé's batted-ball fortune has been.
No. 5: Herrera undoes a lot of the goodwill generated by the McCann signing. Rick Renteria's best two setup men in front of Colomé weren't on the Opening Day roster, and one wasn't even on the 40-man.
