PREAMBLE
I have to imagine the Sox and Hahn and pretty much everyone in the org was hoping they'd be a bit further along than they are right now. Maybe not enough juice to REALLY lure a guy like Machado/Harper to the Rate, but at least enough smoke for media to start calling them a 'dark horse' and 'closer than some think'. The Kopech injury really sucks and you have to stretch pretty far to find a passable positive from all the fringe AAAA guys that got all the PT last year. This is gonna get weird; strap in.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Jose Abreu, $16M tender
- Avisail Garcia, $8M tender (begrudgingly)
- Yolmer Sanchez, $4.7M tender
- Carlos Rodon, $3.7M tender
- Matt Davidson, $2.4M NON-tender
- Leury Garcia, $1.9M NON-tender (although MAYBE...get to this later)
- Danny Farquhar, $1.4M tender
CLUB OPTIONS
I'm submitting after this has been decided, but I'd have done just what they did - pick up Jones/buy out Shields
- Nate Jones, $4.65 million/$1.25M buyout
- James Shields, $16 million/$2M buyout
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
Let them both go
- Miguel Gonzalez (made $4.75 million in 2018)
- Hector Santiago (made $2 million in 2018 — added)
FREE AGENTS
The Sox will need to overpay anyone in the top 20-25 or so of free agents to convince them to scrape for wins for a season or so while the kids keep maturing. Here's the best I got:
No. 1: Marwin Gonzalez (five years, $72.5 million). Pretty much every team could use a legit utility man that plays near everyday, so he's going to need enough of a contract to NOT ply his trade all over the diamond for a contender for the next 4-5 years. This is the only signing I see that makes sense to overpay because of the flexibility he brings going forward. You can play him literally anywhere on the infield or OF corners and it makes the possibilities endless as kids start graduating. Would he go for playing for a bottom feeder after coming up contending the last few seasons as he's come up? If the term/per are right, he will. Will the Sox go far enough to make this reality? Doubtful, but this is for fun and there isn't much fun to be had out here right now.
No. 2/3/4+: Starting Pitching. Shields and Kopech being gone opens up about 375+ innings worth of work for the rotation. I'd expect Covey to get some more run, Maybe a few farm hands surprise in the Spring and get a shot, but this is going to be another round of bargain hunting, albeit with more of an eye on turning around a spotty/injury filled career that can at least net a future asset at the deadline next July. Nathan Evoldi likely priced himself out of range for the Sox; let someone else throw $50M+ at him for 3 years or so and regret it as he becomes a severely overpaid long arm. The realistic options here are Matt Harvey, Lance Lynn, Drew Pomeranz, Tyson Ross, Chris Tillman' Garrett Richards and White Sox great Gio Gonzalez; guys with something to prove that can come in on 1-2 year deals (likely with options) for $5-10M at most. We shouldn't be in Miguel Gonzales/Hector Santiago territory for the open rotation spots this offseason, so hopefully Hahn/Cooper can sell 1-3 of these guys on their ability to right whatever wrongs got them on my stupid list in the first place. There is no Guarantee anyone behind Rodon pans out, so I would not be opposed to bringing in more than 1-2 of these projects and seeing what sticks through Spring.
TRADES
As has been mentioned here and elsewhere, the biggest asset this team has right now is the ability to eat money. That's where the CRAZY FUN ideas come in:
No. 1: Trade Jordan Stephens, Alex Call, Leury Garcia, and Juan Minaya to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig/ Same deal with Joc Pederson instead of Puig. I said this was the fun part. Look, LA is not bringing back Machado, but if they're REALLY going to be in on Harper (and they will be), they have to 1) remove some payroll (currently locked into $180M for 2019) and 2) remove some OF bodies. Kemp is entering the final year of his mega deal and will get $21M and change. He can play a hap-hazard CF or DH and spell the OF corners from time to time. The enigmatic Puig is in his final year of arbitration and comes with his share of red flags, but it's a flier the Sox can't pass up if given the chance. Plus, this ticks the always helpful box of "Did KW try to acquire him previously?". The Dodgers clear about $30-35M in payroll, add two potentially reliable arms out of the pen or for spot starts and a utility bat that can play a handful of positions on a cheap contract. Kemp and Puig could both be flipped if things don't pan out, especially Kemp if you tie some $$ to him. The Pederson version is even less likely, but maybe Hahn would part with a better kid (Walker? Rutherford?) to entice the team to send Joc, who has two arb years remaining before they have to pay him big money. Hell, just send them Basabe, get both Pederson AND Puig and lock in an OF of Eloy/Joc/Puig for the next few years. Likely? no. Possible? why not.
No. 2 Trade Avi Garcia and Lincoln Henzman to the Padres for Travis Jankowski and Clayton Richard. The Padres are currently entrusting their outfield to three young players, tww of which are 24/23 in Franchy Cordero and Franmil Reyes. Reyes had a solid half a season, but at 275lbs (and likely more) he's not contending for gold gloves any time soon and is probably best suited for the American League or a move to 1B, and none of those things are viable in SD. Jankowski comes in and either usurps Engel or forms a solid platoon with him. Richard, known the organization, becomes the new back end veteran innings eater. IF deal No 1 happens, there is no room for Avi with Kemp/Puig/Eloy lurking for everyday at bats on my 2019 White Sox.
No. 3: Look for literally any other salary dump to pounce on to keep building assets, find ANY return for Avi. Yes, at some point they needs these assets to turn into results, but as stated above with the Dodgers, pretty much any team looking to add a big time free agent will be looking to shed a bad contract to get it done. Teams in win-now mode will part with a potential contributor blocked at his position/a year or so away to fit their version of the ideal team for them to field. Hahn has shown a willingness and propensity to help those GMs out while getting some extra little valuables in return and not giving up much in the process. My plan doesn't have a space for ALL of Palka, Delmonico, Avi (if No. 2 fails to materialize), so in my little reality those would be names tacked onto deals to help sweeten any return. Look for very 'meh' veterans that under-performed or fell off completely to join the bullpen again in 2019. If they just trudge along with Avi until he's out of arb and still a replacement level player he'll be gone for nothing in a season, so in line with the Rangers trade idea get what you can for him before he ho-hums his way right out of town.
SUMMARY
So my plan fields the following 25 man roster:
C - Navy/Castillo
1B - Abreu
2B - Yoan
3B - Marwin
SS - Timmy
LF - Eloy
CF - Jankowski/Engel
RF - Puig
DH - Kemp
BN - Yolmer/Palka or Delmonico (with Rondon ready upon injuries)
Starting Rotation
Rodon
Lopez
Giolito
Richard
Tyson Ross/Chris Tillman
Bullpen
Fry - start as closer
Hamilton
Burdi
Jones
Burr
Frare
Covey
This is a highly unlikely plan, I can admit. I think it's more of the ambition I'd like to see Hahn/the Org take. There will be opportunity out there to add usable, MLB level talent by helping teams out and taking on payroll. I know that some of these guys have taken on a cult following (PALKAMANIA), but if we're all being honest these are novelty pieces on a terrible baseball team. Palka, Davidson, Delmonico, Engel, and the always fun Yolmer need to be evaluated as what they are - below replacement level. You do not win in the MLB with a half a roster or more made up of these types of player. A terrible INF that hits the occasional dinger and tosses an inning here and there is an attraction, not a building block for a future playoff team. Frankly, they only tender Yolmer if they know they can't get Marwin to slot in at 3B.
This plan at least creates some EXCITEMENT. Marwin! Kemp! Puig! Ross? Ross! Most of the lovable position fillers are gone, but I would assume many a fan would forget about Nicky D and Palka once Puig is crushing balls into the bullpen bar and getting into all sorts of hi-jinks. If they can't move Avi this offseason or don't think they can I almost hope they just non-tender him. Use that $8M to help absorb Kemp or any other albatross salary that gets you someone that helps going forward, and yea by that I mean I don't see how Avi is part of the next Sox contender. 15-20 HRs a year with a low OBP can be had on the open market if you just NEED to have it. This payroll would be a bit of an increase over last year, but should hover around $100M or so and well within the parameters established here.
This path would at least show the fans and the league that the Sox are TRYING something, anything, besides "stock the system and hope for the best". 2018 was a middling year, with cautious signings/trades and bad results with even worse injuries along the way. Sitting still and straight up bargain hunting will not pass for most of the fan base this year. Eloy looms and that will make up for some of it, but they already bungled that with fans by playing the service game that's become commonplace around the league. Sure, most of us get WHY you did it...so use some of that $25M-$30M you think you saved yourself by keeping him down to make 2019 more palatable for everyone and, dare I say, maybe even sneak up on a division that is there for the taking.
