In all likelihood, the 2018 White Sox will not be 120-loss kind of bad. The question is whether they'll show any meaningful measure of positive regression before the return of injured players (Carlos Rodon, Avisail Garcia, Miguel Gonzalez) or the arrival of key prospects (Michael Kopech, Eloy Jimenez).
For the incumbents on the roster, this homestand would be a fine time to show it. The Sox start with four games against the last-place Rangers, and follow it up with four games against the last-place Orioles.
Granted, these are the same Sox that went 1-5 against the Tigers and Rays when both teams looked dreadful in early April, and that stretch is a big component of their what-the-hell 3-15 record at home.
Whether you weigh with weather or larger sample sizes, mid-May feels much more real than early April, and all of these three teams are awful. The bottom of the American League team leaderboards are all cluttered up with Rangers, Orioles and White Sox.
Runs per game?
12. Orioles, 4.14
13. Royals, 4.12
14. Rangers, 4.00
15. White Sox, 3.82
OPS?
12. White Sox, .717
13. Royals, .715
14. Orioles, .702
15. Rangers, .687
Runs allowed per game?
12. Rangers, 5.32
13. Orioles, 5.55
14. Royals, 5.72
15. White Sox, 5.74
Defensive efficiency?
10. White Sox, .685
...
14. Rangers, .671
15. Orioles, .660
When you look at the state of the Rangers from Patrick's preview, and when you look at the Orioles' Baseball-Reference.com page, it's hard to believe the White Sox are several games worse than either club. They all seem the same kind of bad.
It comes down to the pitching. The White Sox offense is below-average, but looks a little worse than it might actually be due to a horrible early stretch with runners in scoring position. There's no similar way to shine up the pitching staff, which has the league's worst ERA, FIP and just about every other predictive metric. Most of their struggles are independent of the defense, which is itself so abysmal that Rick Renteria is thinking about playing Yolmer Sanchez in the outfield.
The White Sox should be able to come away with their first split of the season against a non-Royals team in either half of this homestand. Even if you think there's something legit to their 3-15 record at home -- and even if the Rangers reinforce that notion --the Orioles are 3-16 outside of Baltimore. Something's gotta give.
Alas, nothing can be assumed, except for maybe the worst-case scenario. If the White Sox somehow run their KC-excluded losing streak to 0-14, a long season will feel all the more interminable.
