We're getting closer to some real action in Glendale, as Scott Reifert delivered the lineup for Tuesday's B-game against the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- Jared Mitchell, LF
- Jordan Danks, CF
- Tyler Flowers, C
- Dayan Viciedo, 1B
- Josh Kroeger, DH
- Jayson Nix, 2B
- Brent Lillibridge, SS
- Brent Morel, 3B
- Alejandro De Aza, RF
Wow, it just felt good to type numbers in that order. Gavin Floyd, Carlos Torres, Daniel Hudson and Daniel Cabrera are scheduled to pitch.
Anyway, the start of the spring training schedule also marks the start of friendly reminders about how the numbers don't count. All of them are completely true.
If you need evidence of how spring training stats can mislead, look no further than two players who stood out in Glendale last season:
- Wilson Betemit, who led the White Sox in spring homers (six) and RBI (18) last year.
- Josh Fields, who led the Sox in OBP (.455) and slugging percentage (.638).
One could wring some meaning out of their performances, because they had great Aprils before crashing in May, but one good month doesn't help much. Jermaine Dye kills this theory, too, because he failed to slug .300 in Arizona, and then he ripped the ball when the regular season rolled around.
But don't write off every single number you see, because there are two numbers that help.
Walks and strikeouts. At least for hitters lacking a track record.
Brent Lillibridge and Dewayne Wise combined to draw two who walks over 154 plate appearances, while striking out a bunch. That obviously followed them into the season.
Chris Getz, conversely, showed a pretty good balance between the two in the spring. While real major-league pitching made it a bit tougher on both ends, strike zone judgment wasn't a weakness for him. Gordon Beckham put the bat on the ball in his first spring, and he continued to make contact while being rushed through three levels afterward.
Also, while it's dealing with two incredibly small sample sizes, Tyler Flowers struck out every other at-bat in both spring training and his major-league call-up. Dayan Viciedo was also hack-happy during his brief spring career, walking once and striking out seven times.
If you're curious, I put together a chart comparing spring walk/strikeout numbers with regular-season ones below the jump.
(Spring to the left, real to the right)
| BB/K | BB% | K% | BB/K | BB% | K% | |
| Lillibridge | 0.04 | 1.2 | 30.4 | 0.54 | 12.5 | 27.4 |
| Quentin | 0.67 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 0.60 | 7.8 | 14.8 |
| Konerko | 0.67 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 0.65 | 9.3 | 16.3 |
| Getz | 0.86 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 0.56 | 7.2 | 14.4 |
| Dye | 0.55 | 7.6 | 15.3 | 0.59 | 11.1 | 21.5 |
| Ramirez | 0.33 | 4.0 | 12.5 | 0.74 | 8.1 | 12.2 |
| Wise | 0.07 | 1.4 | 21.4 | 0.11 | 2.0 | 19.0 |
| Anderson | 0.64 | 11.3 | 20.3 | 0.41 | 9.5 | 26.5 |
| Fields | 0.44 | 10.3 | 26.1 | 0.33 | 9.3 | 31.8 |
| Betemit | 0.38 | 7.2 | 20.3 | 0.38 | 10.0 | 28.9 |
| Owens | 1.57 | 15.1 | 11.5 | 1.00 | 20.0 | 25.0 |
| Pierzynski | 0.00 | - | 3.3 | 0.46 | 4.5 | 10.3 |
| Thome | 1.00 | 16.7 | 20.8 | 0.59 | 16.5 | 33.6 |
| Beckham | 0.40 | 5.0 | 13.5 | 0.63 | 9.5 | 17.2 |
| Viciedo | 0.14 | 3.6 | 26.9 | - | - | - |
| Flowers | 0.00 | - | 50.0 | 0.38 | 15.0 | 50.0 |
There isn't a positive correlation of 1 or anything, but you don't see the whacked-out variation like you do with triple-slash lines or power output that crowns guys like Brian Anderson as the Kings of Spring. Walks decrease and strikeouts increase as pitchers start throwing for real, but not beyond reason. Most of the differences are explainable. Paul Konerko is a known work-getter-inner during the spring, and Jermaine Dye's regular-season walk rate escalated during his collapse. Pitchers needed three weeks to adjust to Lillibridge's Little League zone, then overwhelmed him with strikes.
Alexei Ramirez is the only confusing one, since he doubled not only his spring walk rate, but his 2008 one as well. Even then, his strikeout rate remained true.
Keep these two numbers in mind for most of the guys in the lineup above. Danks, Mitchell and Morel may not enough PAs in their first spring, but if guys like Lillibridge, Flowers and Viciedo have similarly ugly walk-strikeout ratios, it tells you a little bit about how much work they have left. At least as much as a small sample size can.
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Another number to pay attention to -- Bobby Jenks' radar gun readings, because reading into this Don Cooper explanation of why Jenks is "behind schedule" isn't advisable:
''Because Bobby worked so hard on his conditioning, plus Bobby had another child, plus the weather in Chicago is bad,'' Cooper said. ''And he told me he had a little difficulty getting somebody to catch him. So he was just playing more catch than actually pitching off a mound."
There's no reason to really doubt Cooper when he says Jenks will be ready come April. Mark Buehrle is always some form of behind, and a sluggish Bartolo Colon was actually as ready as he was going to be. But it's going to be interesting to see what a slimmed-down Jenks throws when he's finally up to speed.
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Mark Teahen will likely lead the team in good-natured anecdotes:
Then out walked the newest player to try to fill the void at thirdbase since Joe Crede left, a plastic cup of urine in hand.
Slightly awkward? Not for Mark Teahen, who strutted up to a few ofhis new teammates and offered up the cup as though it was filled with avintage wine.
Everybody's buying into Teahen breaking out. Here's hoping.
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Christian Marrero Reading Room:
*Gordon Beckham's second baseman career begins this week, and Omar Vizquel will be giving him some pointers.
*Jake Peavy wants Adrian Gonzalez, who became a hot topic when a CBSSportsline.com report said the Sox would consider giving up Beckham for his services. Joe Cowley said "that's not really an option."
*Jermaine Dye is still struggling to find work. At least for a team that will give him everyday at-bats, has a good shot at winning it all and won't flip him at the deadline. I can hear Sarah McLachlan now...
