PREAMBLE
The overarching theme of my offseason plan project is, “keep it simple stupid”. That means two things: don’t fuss around with small dollar signings and don’t make trades that cause more problems than they solve. I initially had the Sox going after bigger names in the pitching market, but in the spirit of sticking to the exercise, I opted instead for a consolidation trade on the pitching side (FWIW, I also think Spotrac’s Jeffers projection and Bowden’s Taira projection might be low, so this OPP might be over budget anyways).
On the position player side, the White Sox had few glaring holes. They only ranked in the bottom third of the league in fWAR at two positions: catcher and right field. I will be addressing the former. The latter position was dragged down by the rotating cast of characters pre-Braden Montgomery, whose prorated fWAR would land him around 17th in the league for team right field fWAR. With a weak position player class, it’s difficult to make big steps at any position on this team. Few free agents are obvious steps up from the incumbents. Better to let the kids play and spend money elsewhere.
On the pitching side, the team is awash with back-end options and potential multi-inning weapons, but lacks any top-of-the-rotation staters. While the bullpen was at times frustrating this year, that was largely due to overuse and the cognitive fallacy of all fans hating their bullpens. As we learned from the late years of the Hahn-Williams era, spending on bullpens is often dumb. I hope Getz learns that lesson, and instead turns to his cost-controlled young arms to build out the bullpen depth. I also propose a consolidation trade to turn two borderline starters into one top-of-the-rotation guy.
Finally, while I would love to see Getz get creative with opportunistic trades, it is impossible for a lowly fan such as myself to know opportunities may arise. Just as the team lacks many glaring holes, it also lacks any areas of obvious surplus and any front office the Sox would trade with are just as aware of players’ flaws as White Sox fans are. Trading Colson Montgomery would require playing Chase Meidroth out of position, and I doubt any team would overpay for his services. Andrew Benintendi’s market is non-existent, though his bat is more valuable than most on the free agent market. Thus, I only propose one trade.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Miguel Vargas: Tender
- Brenton Doyle: Tender
- Joey Bart: Tender
- Huascar Brazobán: Tender
- Jordan Leasure: Non-tender
- Chris Murphy: Non-tender
Vargas and Brazobán are easy tenders for me. Doyle provides elite late-inning defense as well as the potential for untapped offensive upside. I do not trust Quero or Romo (and I do not think the Sox do either), so $3.6 million for a backup is reasonable. I was tempted to tender Murphy, but I feel like there are other young pitchers on this team with higher upside who deserve the roster spot. Leasure you hope to resign somehow, but for the time being has to be non-tendered.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- None
FREE AGENTS
Ryan Jeffers, (3 yrs, $40 Million)
$13.3 million over 3 years may feel like an overpay for a backup catcher, but Ryan Jeffers fills multiple holes for the White Sox: backup catcher, DH, right-handed bench bat, and potentially first baseman of the future. Think of this as recreating the Teel-Quero tandem that never came to fruition, except you can actually rely on Jeffers to have a 120 WRC+, instead of praying for Quero to break 90. The knock on Jeffers is recent year has been his inability to stay healthy, but if you’re only relying on him to start 40-50 games at catcher, there is less concern. I am also hopeful that Jeffers can follow in the footsteps of Victor Martinez and Carlos Santana: bat-first catchers whose bats fully bloomed once they moved out from behind the plate.
I considered proposing trades for Goodman or Langeliers, but Goodman’s offensive profile is too similar to Murakami and Montgomery, while Langeliers lacks the offensive upside to be a first-division DH.
Kaima Taira, (2 yrs, $17 million, w/ a 3rd year player option for $10 million)
This signing is as much for the business side as the baseball side. Kaima Taira is an electric pitcher who will no doubt further increase the White Sox’ burgeoning Japanese fandom. If the White Sox can use this signing to solidify their foothold in Japan, this will hopefully lessen any business-side pressure to force a Murakami contract. On the baseball side, Taira’s biggest risk is that he lacks that durability and control to start. However, his stuff should work well enough that even if he ends up in relief, he will be effective. The player option in year 3 attempts to slightly draw down his annual salary.
TRADES
Eduardo Rodriguez and $6.25 Million for Noah Scultz, Drew Thorpe, Javier Mogollon, and Mathias LaCombe
Eduardo Rodriguez was quietly excellent last year, and the Diamondback seem desperate to shed payroll and acquire young, cost-controlled starting pitching depth. Yes, Eduardo Rodriguez is a rental, but a rental feels like what the White Sox need right now as they sort through which of their young starters have staying power and look forward to future financial flexibility in a post-Benintendi, post-Castillo world. Neither Noah Schultz nor Drew Thorpe look like reliable rotation options right now and thus are more valuable for teams looking for cost-control and quantity. They also free up spots on both the 26- and 40-man rosters. Javier Mogollon and Mathias LaCombe added to get the Diamondback to throw in $6.25 million to cover Rodriguez’s salary and get me right at Jim’s spending limit.
SUMMARY
Opening Day Lineup
C: Kyle Teel (Minimum)
1B: Munetaka Murakami ($17 mil)
2B: Chase Meidroth (Minimum)
3B: Miguel Vargas ($5.4 mil)
SS: Colson Montgomery (Minimum)
LF: Sam Antonacci (Minimum)
CF: Tristan Peters (Minimum)
RF: Braden Montgomery (Minimum)
DH: Ryan Jeffers ($13.3 mil)
Bench
DH/OF: Benintendi ($15.1 mil)
OF: Brenton Doyle ($5.4 mil)
U: Tanner Murray (Minimum)
C: Joey Bart ($3.4 mil)
Barring the Montgomeri’s production cratering or serious regression from Vargas/Meidroth/Anontacci/Peters, this should be a lineup of top-to-bottom 100 WRC+ or better guys. This is a deep lineup with a mix of strengths. The bench feels a bit light, but this is a highly modular lineup given the number of players who play credible defense at multiple positions. Carrying 3 catchers feels necessary early on if Jeffers is going to DH regularly. I don’t think Benintendi is a cut candidate quite yet, but he needs to put up early before becoming one. In my opinion, Murrary beats out Acuna to be the bench utility guy.
Rotation
- Eduardo Rodriguez ($20 mil minus $6.25 mil)
- Sean Burke (Minimum)
- Grant Taylor (Minimum)
- Kaima Taira ($8.5 mil)
- Davis Martin (Minimum)
After Grant Taylor proved to be effective in up to 4 innings of work during the postseason, the time has come to test Grant Taylor in the rotation. Taira and Martin both carry some relief risk, but the presence of viable backup options in both my projected opening day bullpen and at AAA ease these concerns. Rodriguez, Burke, and Taylor are a highly competitive top 3 for a playoff team.
Bullpen
Luis Castillo ($24.15 mil)
Hagen Smith (Minimum)
Jordan Hicks ($12.5 mil minus $4 mil)
Bryan Hudson (Minimum)
Anthony Kay ($5 mil)
Huascar Brazoban ($1.6 mil)
Mike Vasil (Minimum)
Shane Smith (Minimum)
If you buy into the theory that the best relievers are failed starters, this bullpen is for you. It is to-be-determined, but my hope is that ramping Castillo up as a dedicated closer will allow him to find some late-career efficacy. I have similar hopes that a move to multi-inning relief will help Shane Smith return to the big leagues. Smith and Kay provide multi-inning left-handed options, while Hicks, Brazoban, Hudson, and Vasil are all cromulent single-inning relievers. Tanner McDougal and David Sandlin return to Charlotte to get stretched out, while the Tylers Davis and Schweitzer provide AAA bullpen depth.
