PREAMBLE
Last year our drunk uncles from the 108 coined the term "Outfield Chaos" to describe what we had going into the 2026 season. This outfield Chaos found us an All-Star center fielder and in general helped propel us to the post season. That is not to say the outfield is fixed, but we can learn lessons from this process and repeat it at the next area of need.
Today we coin (steal) the term "Starter Pitching Chaos". The aim is to throw options at a wall and see what shit sticks. I fully believe that between Hagen Smith, David Sandlin, Noah Schultz, Tanner McDougal, Shane Smith (likely a reliever from Getz's last interview) we have an elite starter to pair with Burke. The key is finding out quickly who it is going to be.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Miguel Vargas: Tender
- Brenton Doyle: Tender
- Joey Bart: Non-tender
- Huascar Brazobán: Tender
- Jordan Leasure: Non-tender
- Chris Murphy: Non-tender
Vargas - This is a no brainer tender, I would be very interested in an extension now. The reason being, the longer of track record of success he has and the closer he gets to free agency, the higher the price will get for the post arb years you purchase. Now is the time to extend as a value play.
Doyle - Why trade for him if you aren't going to tender him this year. I think he can walk at least once a month... and with his defense 3.6 mil is still plus EV.
Brazobán - Relievers are volatile. I am not going to let a short sample size, possible compounded by fatigue turn me away from someone with this level of ground ball ability, especially now I actually believe n our infield defense.
Bart is too expensive when you don't know what he is, Leasure can hopefully be brought back in a way that doesn't impact the 40 man roster and I don't trust Murphy enough to keep him around when he has no remaining options.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- None
Grichuk and Newcomb id love to keep, but not at the price they will cost. Grichuk is someone you can maybe require at the deadline, if a need presents itself.
Richards I would have back at league minimum.
FREE AGENTS
No. 1: Brandon Woodruff (2 years, and $40 million if no injuries in year one, if injured in year one for any significant time, year two is for $5 million)
Woodruff is the perfect person to add to our Starting Pitching Chaos. He is a number 2 pitcher when healthy, but hasn't had a healthy year for 3 years now. Last night he throw an inning and had less velo that I would have hoped for, but it was his first inning back since June.
Before his injury, he had an ERA below 3 and was still striking out more than one batter per inning.
Woodruff might take a weird split deal like this, as it is his only route to two years and $40 million id expect.
No. 2: Randy Arozarena (5 years, $125 Mil)
Someone else will pay him for four years and someone else will be willing to go shorter for big one year money. If we want to win a bidding war, I expect the price to be around this mark. He stole over 20 bags this year, his legs are fine, he hit home runs, his bat speed still seems to be there. He adds Mexican flair to our already fun clubhouse. This to me feels like the big ticket item for this year. The last year or two might be a waste of money, but I'd be willing to gamble to add this bat to our already strong line up.
His defense in left field isn't great, however he will DH some and ultimately we coped with Sammy the Ant in left field last year didn't we.
No. 3: Pete Fairbanks (1 year, 5 Million, with further incentives)
The Sox wanted Fairbanks last year, we went to the Marlins and laid a massive egg, with a 6.31 ERA.
What we have learnt about the Sox scouting is sometimes they are not wrong, they are just a season early (Cam Booser, Curtis Mead etc.)
Lets see if we can get on the good end of being a year late and get a leverage reliever for a lower price than you would normally need to spend. His expected ERA at just over 4 is probably the floor of what this should be.
No 4: A.J Minter (2 years and $18 Million)
This is the left handed reliever we need to replace Newcomb, who I think may opt for starting innings elsewhere. Id be happy however if Newcomb was willing to take this deal.
TRADES
No. 1 Trade Andrew Benintendi and Cash to Arizona Diamondbacks for Cristofer Torin (17th prospect in their system.
We have no space for Benny, especially with the Randy signing. This is a case of finding a team that could use him... step up the Arizona Diamondbacks and their 77 WRC+ from the DH position. The cash we send is whatever it needs to be to get the deal done.
Torin is a contact hitter who places both middle infield positions. His lack of power probably make him a bench bat in the long run, however this trade isn't about Torin, it's about getting Benny off the 26 man roster and saving any money we can.
SUMMARY
Line up (against a right hander)
Antonacci - DH
Vargas - 3B
Murakami - 1B
Arozarena - LF
Teel - C
Meidroth - 2B
Peters - CF
B Montgomery - RF
C Montgomery - SS
Bench
Doyle
Quero (I still believe)
Baldwin
Bergolla Jr
Starting Pitching
Burke
Followed by CHAAAOOOSSS !!!!!!!
Fight it out Kay, Hagen Smith, Schultz, Martin, Sandlin, McDougal, Castillo, Shane Smith and our new fighter Woodruff.
Between those 8 names the final four pitchers will figure themselves out throughout the season and with such high upside, 2 more post season starters should emerge.
Arm Barn
Taylor
A.J Minter
Fairbanks
Hicks
Hudson
Brazoban
Schweitzer
Eventually The Bat Mike Vasil
Whoever loses the Starting Pitcher Chaos fight.
Notes
- Caleb Bonemer will come up at some point and will push whomever is playing badly off of the roster.
- Colson bats number 9 and is treated like a specialist fielder until he proves overwise.
- The key is the starting pitcher chaos. We need to figure out who our future post season starters are without blocking progress this year by over signing too many arms now. The Smiths and the Schultz of this world need to be tested.
- Taylor remains in the pen. I simply don't want to break him and risk injury until we have a replacement. The risk/reward leads me here but would change if all 8 of the starter chaos arms somehow fail.
Extensions
Vargas - Only going to get more expensive. Extending him should be a priority.
Mune - I would also extend him if the price is right or if the qualifying offer gets removed from the CBA.
Budget
Who knows where this lands, there are too many variables, such as will Arizona eat much of the Benny money and what the extensions look like. We have added a lot of free agent money, but this is what I would genuinely do if I were a Sox GM and I could convince Jerry to do it. Castillo and whatever we have to eat of Benny's contracts comes off the books next year, so the job is to explain it as an increase next year with a expected drop the following year.
