PREAMBLE
It's a great time to be a Sox fan! In the past, I've needed time to de-stress after a rough 162, but this year I began planning my offseason the day after the season ended.
My goal is to identify players that have room for growth and those that might regress. From there, we'll fill in the gaps with free agency. I look at a lot of expected stats, so be prepared for lots of Fangraphs statistics.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Miguel Vargas: Tender
- Brenton Doyle: Tender
- Joey Bart: Non-tender
- Huascar Brazobán: Tender
- Jordan Leasure: Non-tender
- Chris Murphy: Non-tender
Vargas is an easy tender - look for what I do with him later.
Doyle has untapped potential as a hitter and plays great defense. Plus, Peters needs a RHB caddy in CF.
Bart is a capable backup, but $2.9M is iffy. I will bring him back for $2M later on.
Brazoban had a bad end to 2026, but is cheap and has a solid track record. He gets tendered a contract for 2027.
Leasure won't pitch at all in 2027, but I'll give him a minor league deal to rehab with the team.
Murphy was hot garbage. I wouldn't even bring him back for league minimum.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Erick Fedde
- Trevor Richards
Erick Fedde: 1 year x $3.5M. He loves Chicago, and the fans rallied around him in the end. He won't start out the gate, but he gets a nice bump in pay to deploy that sweeper in relief.
Trevor Richards: 1 year x $1M. I would get incensed when he pitched in leverage, but he makes for a good 8th man in the bullpen. He'll be Venable's rubber arm for blow out games.
I loved Randal Grichuk, but I don't think he repeats his 2026 performance in 2027; his xWOBA and xSLG were significantly lower than his OBP and SLG.
Sean Newcomb's signing excited me last December. He was coming off a good year and signed for cheap. Coming off a second good year, I don't expect him to sign for cheap. Given the mileage on his arm, I can't give him multiple years or 8 figures.
Rogers and Pham served their purposes in 2026, but their services won't be needed in 2027.
I forgot about Sims in the year end Sporcle. Enough said.
FREE AGENTS
Sonny Gray: 2 years x $40M with a $20M club option/$5M buyout for the third year that becomes guaranteed with 320 IP across the first two years or 160 IP in year two.
I think Sonny Gray is awesome. He's a crafty pitcher getting better as he ages. He'll be entering his age 37 season, but I trust he can keep performing. He throws the kitchen sink and relies on command and pitch sequencing (not velo) to get outs. In 2026, he pitched to a 3.85 xERA and 3.47 FIP in 169 innings (a 2.72 ERA helped by a high LOB%). He slots in as the #2 behind Sean Burke.
Casey Mize: 3 years x $50M
Mize was a tale of two halves in 2026. He was great in the first half. In fact, I really wanted the Sox to trade for him at the deadline. However, he fell off a cliff with the Padres post-deadline. I don't think that is a big deal though as a lot of the pitchers moved at the deadline struggled in 2026. He had a 3.11 xERA and a 2.69 FIP in the first half (a 2.79 ERA for the less statistically inclined). He also had a fine 2025, so I don't think it's a fluke. Much to my benefit, his Padres tailspin hurt his market, so I land him in the Jerry pitcher salary comfort zone(TM).
Adolis Garcia: 1 year x $6M
Garcia was more highly sought after when he was a thumper with the Rangers. His best attribute now is his glove and arm cannon in a corner outfield spot. I envision him as a platoon for Braden Montgomery or Sam Antonacci as well as a DH candidate because underneath his 63 wRC+ in 2026 is a 130 wRC+ vs LHP. He slashed .254/.338/.525 for an .864 OPS with an 11.8% BB% and a 23.5% K%. Further, his expected stats support his platoon numbers: he had an expected slash of .273/.365/.487 for an expected OPS of .852 (not a perfect comparison because it uses xwOBA instead of OBP). The caveat is he tore his Lat muscle in June and missed the rest of the year. Nonetheless, a full recovery is expected, and he will be ready come spring training (if it even starts on time).
Kevin Ginkel: 1 year x $5.5M
Ginkel is a righthanded reliever to slot into the pen. In 2026, he had a 4.12 ERA in 67 innings, but had a 3.55 xERA and a 3.50 FIP. He had a 26.2% K% and a 6.2% BB% which should play very well. Also, his fastball velo increased .8 MPH in 2026, so he's not slowing down yet. The 4+ ERA keeps his salary pretty low though.
Joey Bart: 1 year x $2M
As mentioned, I bring him back to backup Kyle Teel. He is a righty to counter Teel's lefthandedness and can manage a staff. I don't trust Quero's hitting, receiving, or pitch calling, and Romo can't hit. Bart sets a floor while Quero/Romo start in AAA and fight to earn another chance.
TRADES
Andrew Benintendi and Colby Shelton to Arizona for PTBNL/28 yo reliever in single A
Before you jump on my back, just listen. The Diamondbacks were 27 out of 30 teams in wRC+ vs RHP at 92 wRC+. To make matters worse, their DHs had a combined 73 wRC+ vs RHP. Lastly, RosterResource slots Pavin Smith in as their 2027 DH: a guy with a 60 wRC+ vs RHP. To sum it up, they need a new strong side platoon DH. Benintendi wasn't a world beater vs RHP, but his 105 wRC+ is miles better than any other option they have. That's worth something, but not $15M.
To bridge that gap, they can have Colby Shelton. He's the #12 prospect in the Sox org per Baseball America. He can play 2B or 3B, where Ketel Marte and Nolan Arenado aren't getting any younger. He was great in high A and mediocre in AA, but optimism is high for his bat.
In return, the White Sox don't need much since the whole point is to launch Benintendi's contract and get higher impact players into the lineup. Think Paul DeJong for Jarold Rosaldo.
SUMMARY
There wasn't a section for extensions, so let me lay them out here.
Munetaka Murakami: 5 years x $120M
Mune had an up and down 2026, but finished strong. His slump definitely hurt his market value, so I want to strike now. The fact he got off the schneid though gives me confidence that he will continue to perform at a high level for the foreseeable future. This deal kicks in for the 2028 season.
Miguel Vargas: 6 years x $93M
Vargas is awesome, so I'm going to buy out his arb years and lock him up until he's 33. He'll get $7M this year, then $11M and $15M for the remaining arb years. Then his 3 free agency years will be at $20M a piece.
26 Man Roster:
C: Kyle Teel
1B: Munetaka Murakami
2B: Chase Meidroth
3B: Miguel Vargas
SS: Colson Montgomery
LF: Brooks Baldwin
CF: Tristan Peters
RF: Braden Montgomery
DH: Sam Antonacci
Bench: Joey Bart, Adolis Garcia, Brenton Doyle, Tanner Murray
SP1: Sean Burke
SP2: Sonny Gray
SP3: Casey Mize
SP4: Davis Martin
SP5: Noah Schultz
RP1: Grant Taylor
RP2: Hagen Smith
RP3: Jordan Hicks
RP4: Kevin Ginkel
RP5: Bryan Hudson
RP6: Erick Fedde
RP7: Huascar Brazoban
RP8: Trevor Richards
Lets discuss some of these.
I think trading Chase Meidroth would be smart since he majorly outperformed his expected stats, so there's potential to cash in on his great season. I think he's more of a 3/3.5 WAR player than a 4.5 WAR player. But I'll hold onto him because I don't need Sox fans showing up to my house with torches and pitchforks. That, and he's pretty good player even with some regression to the mean.
Speaking of torches and pitchforks, lets cool it with Colson. He'll make adjustments over the offseason and provide a much more steady season at the dish in 2027.
I gushed over Brooks Baldwin in last year's OPP. I still think he can hold down a corner, but this is also kind of a placeholder for Caleb Bonemer once his service time is manipulated. Alternatively, if there's a lockout, Bonemer will be playing in the minors and could be ready to go by the time the major league season starts.
LuisAngel Acuna is getting dumped in favor of Brooks Baldwin. Tanner Murray holds down the 26th spot as a utility guy.
There's a lot of starting options for the Sox, but most of them stunk. I signed some dependable guys to force the stinkers to put up or shut up. Luis Castillo and Davis Martin need to show they can be healthy and return to form; I think Martin has a better chance of doing that, so it's Castillo to the 60 day IL. Noah Schultz, Hagen Smith, Grant Taylor, David Sandlin, Tanner McDougal, and Drew Thorpe also factor in, but I think Schultz has the inside track since he was a starter for most of 2026. Hagen and Taylor go back to the pen while the rest of them get optioned.
The bullpen shapes up pretty easily. Taylor is still the closer and there's only one new player in Kevin Ginkel. Tyler Schweitzer has options and can be shuttled up and down. Also, Hagen Smith might get a chance to start, which opens up a spot for some of the other guys mentioned above that I would option down.
In all, my salary comes out to $121.5M. I was very excited about the $130M budget because I felt the team needed two starters, a replacement for Grichuk, and I really wanted to extend Vargas. I would have liked a Seiya Suzuki or Randy Arozarena in the field or Michael King on the mound, but it wasn't within the budget considering the amount of moves needed. Instead, I signed two quality starters and a capable weak side platoon for the young lefties in the outfield. This team brings back all the core pieces and adds some reinforcements to get them over the hump. It will force young guys to earn promotions and playing time as well instead of gifting them immediate starting roles.
Thanks for reading this far, and if you think I underpaid anyone - feel free to headcanon them some extra money from the $8.5M I'm under budget.
GO SOX!
