PREAMBLE
This was both fun and brutal to put together. In the spreadsheet I was keeping for salaries, I initially forgot to include Castillo...whoops. The Castillo and Benintendi contracts are really killers for 2027. Both guys are going to be on the roster to start the year. Benintendi's at some point in 2027 will get DFA'd to make room for Bonemer's roster spot. As frustrating as Colson is, there's just not a feasible trade to make for him. But we will get to an interesting trade with the other Montgomery...
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Miguel Vargas: Tender
- Brenton Doyle: Tender
- Joey Bart: Tender
- Huascar Brazobán: Non-tender
- Jordan Leasure: Non-tender
- Chris Murphy: Non-tender
Vargas is obvious (no extension though before the season), Doyle/Peters are going to be your platooning starting CF, Bart comes back because we'll be moving another C in a trade. Brazoban was a toss up, but for what I think he'll get in arbitration ($4M), I non-tendered him.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Nobody
Pham/Richards/Rogers/Sims were easy decisions. I really enjoyed the Grichuk experience, but I can't bet on him to do it again in 2027. Fedde is a casualty of the Castillo contract, I don't see how to fit him into the mix. As good as Newcomb was for the majority of the year, there was some tough moments in Sept/Oct. I'm guessing for what Newcomb will command (multiple years at/above $5M), I don't know if long term that helps the Sox.
FREE AGENTS
Brent Suter (1 year, $3.5M). Bullpen is going heavy here in FA with experienced vets
Hoby Milner (1 year, $2.8M) See above
Tyrone Taylor (2 years, $5M in 27, $6M in 28) Could you have brought back Grichuk at this number? Sure, absolutely. I think Taylor provides more versatility, especially with the other outfielders the Sox have.
TRADES
No. 1: Trade Braden Montgomery, David Sandlin, PTBNL to Houston for Isaac Paredes. Houston will be trading one of their glut of infielders in a salary dump, and Paredes seems the most likely candidate. With Houston's lack of outfielders and SP depth, I think the Sox match up here. It's a gamble as Paredes will be a free agent after next year. Who knows what the rules will be in the new CBA, but it wouldn't be crazy to think he'd be worth a qualifying offer after '27. If he declined a QO, the Sox would recoup a comp pick (assuming those rules stay in place). Paredes would DH in the Sox lineup, on occasions pick up innings at 3B for Vargas. Gamble here is giving up on Montgomery, but I'll take that gamble.
No 2: Trade Anthony Kay, Jaden Fauske, Edgar Quero to Texas for Nathan Eovaldi. Same methodology as above, Texas will be looking to dump salary and should command a back end top 10 prospect from a team. Kay moves on for salary purposes and to help Texas backfill innings, Rangers are looking for a long term CF and are in need of a C. To waive his no trade clause, the Sox sign Eovaldi to a two year extension ($14M in 2027, 2028 Club Option at $10M with a $800k buyout).
SUMMARY
Payroll winds up at $135M for the 26 man roster. In the bullpen, Pierce George makes the roster out of spring training (Taylor/Hudson/Davis/Hicks/Milner/Suter/George/Castillo) are your bullpen arms going into the season. If George can throw strikes, you get another power arm in the pen. If he can't figure it out by mid year, he holds the spot warm until Vasil is healthy. If George performs well, Castillo is a potential late year DFA candidate.
Starting pitching looks like this: Burke/Evoaldi/Martin/Hagen/Schultz. I just don't see the Sox being in contention to sign a Skubal at all, and the way this offseason is lining up, Peralta/Rasmussen/King will be going elsewhere for more money than they probably should. Evoaldi will provide playoff experience and innings in this scenario. Of the two between Hagen and Grant Taylor, Hagen makes far more sense to me to get a starter role.
The lineup should have a decent amount of strategy with it, rotating leftie/rightie: LF Sam, 3B Vargas, 1B Mune, DH Paredes, C Teel, 2B Meidroth, CF Peters, RF Taylor, SS Colson
(I realize that's not how Venable rolls though with his lineups.)
On the bench would be Doyle/Brooks Baldwin/Benintendi/Bart.
The good part of this, I think it improves the Sox over last year, maybe not significantly, but enough to continue to contend.
The bad part of this, it really feels like the Sox 26 man roster is a 24 man roster with Castillo and Benintendi offering little...but being the two of the top three highest paid guys on the team. That's not a great formula for this team to add much more.
