PREAMBLE
At the start of the offseason, we met with with Tarik Skubal. The meeting went well. We were confident in our package and Skubal's agent informed us we were the top offer and Skubal wanted to sign. We flew him to Chicago. It's all smiles. He starts flipping through the contract. His smile morphs into confusion. He glances over to his agent. "I thought we figured out the thing." Getz looks at me, perplexed, then back to Skubal. "What thing?" he says. "Provision FMV. If I sign, no Mike Vasil. It's me or Vasil." Our hearts sink and yet our resolve is evident. "Vasil. Forever." As Skubal stomps out of our office, he angrily says, "this could have been an email."
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Miguel Vargas: Tender
- Brenton Doyle: Tender
- Joey Bart: Tender
- Huascar Brazobán: Tender
- Jordan Leasure: Non-tender
- Chris Murphy: Non-tender
Vargas is obvious. The other three are close but I'm 60/40 "tender" on each.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- Erick Fedde
I like Fedde as a swing man at 1 year, $1.5m. I would kick the tires on Newcomb but I expect him to sign elsewhere.
FREE AGENTS
(1) Sign Michael King — 4 years, $92m ($23m AAV)
(2) Sign Teruaki Sato — 5 years, $110m ($22m AAV)
EXTENSIONS
Munetaka Murakami - 2 years, $48m + Team Option + Player Option
$24m in 2027 and 2028, then after 2028 the White Sox can opt into an additional 4 year, $100m deal. If the Sox decline that team option, then Murakami gets a 1 year, $20m option for 2029.
Chase Meidroth - 5 years, $48m
$3m in 2027, then $10m/$12m/$12m/$14m + 2 team options at $15m.
Miguel Vargas - 6 years, $120m
$10m in 2027, then $15m/$20/$25/$25/$25 + 1 team option at $30m.
TRADES
(1) Trade Billy Carlson, Drew Thorpe, Anthony DePino for Reid Detmers.
I want to add Sato but I don’t think that’s possible if you sign two solid starters. So I will only sign one and Sato. But the problem is the Sox could really use two solid starters. I find my second starter via trade. Detmers has two years of control remaining. I don’t love trading Carlson but a Carlson trade feels inevitable in 2027, given the Sox infield glut. I worry a bit that it’s selling low, and I can’t gauge what Thorpe or DePino’s value is. But the three feel about right: each flawed but interesting prospects.
(2) Trade Andrew Benintendi, Javier Mogollon, Alexander Albertus to the Seattle Mariners for Gabe Speier.
I pretty much hate being on this side of a deal like this, but if I’m adding King and Sato I need to find some budget space to do so. So I package a couple of young bats with Benintendi to get the contract off the books. In return, though, the Sox get a decent lefty reliever (even though he’s not exactly free).
(3) Trade Luis Castillo, Jaden Fauske, and Kyle Lodise to the Cincinnati Reds for Emilio Pagan, JJ Bleday.
Same as trade 2, I don’t like trading prospects to get rid of salary but, once again, I need the space. If Jerry lets me, I would be thrilled to keep Castillo in the bullpen as SP depth instead. It’s difficult to gauge this trade, since I can’t really peg Pagan or Bleday’s value. Pagan looks to be in a bit of a Seranthony situation: he turned in a decent year but now looks like an overpaid closer. He’s in the deal to offset a bit of Castillo’s salary, though I don’t think his contract is necessarily underwater, either. Bleday will run the Sox around $4m but he’s a decent bench bat that you wouldn’t hate to see get some run. So he adds decent depth. If what I have here isn’t enough, I would include someone like Pierce George to get it done.
SUMMARY
26-Man Roster
C - Kyle Teel
1B - Munetaka Murakami
2B - Chase Meidroth
SS - Colson Montgomery
3B - Miguel Vargas
LF - Teruaki Sato
CF - Tristan Peters
RF - Braden Montgomery
DH - Caleb Bonemer
Bench: Joey Bart, Brenton Doyle, JJ Bleday, Sam Antonacci
SP1 - Michael King
SP2 - Sean Burke
SP3 - Reid Detmers
SP4 - Davis Martin
SP5 - Erick Fedde
Bullpen: Grant Taylor, Hagen Smith, Jordan Hicks, Huascar Brazoban, Emilio Pagan, Gabe Speier, Bryan Hudson, Erick Fedde.
To the offense, I subtract Benitendi and Grichuk but I add Bonemer, Sato, and Bleday.
To the rotation, I add King and Detmers.
To the bullpen, I add Pagan and Speier.
And I lock up several key cogs for the future. It takes a high prospect cost to do it, but this is a very young team that is well positioned to win now with several prospects still on their way.
Starting pitching depth in Charlotte: Schultz, Sandlin, McDougal, Smith, Cannon (and Fedde in the pen). I think you probably add a few guys on MiLB deals, too. I'm also telling Hagen Smith and Grant Taylor that they will play creative roles with the idea of converting them to starters in 2028.
By my math on Josh’s spreadsheet, that puts the total roster at $137,800,000—or $7.8m over budget. But that overage is primarily due to extensions, so I make the case to Jerry that these save us money in the long run and point out that next year’s budget will be freed of some expenses.
