PREAMBLE
Jerry's years are numbered. The 2026 team was a blast but the weaknesses are clear as day and the regression is coming. I am not sitting on my laurels and running it back, I am going for it in 2027.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Miguel Vargas: Tender
- Brenton Doyle: Tender
- Joey Bart: Non-tender
- Huascar Brazobán: Tender
- Jordan Leasure: Non-tender
- Chris Murphy: Tender
Feels pretty cut and dry. Leasure isn't pitching in 2027 and isn't worth holding on to to have him in 28 (sorry, just business). Joey Bart, hardly knew ya.
OTHER IMPENDING FREE AGENTS
- None
I would like to retain Sean Newcomb but I think Sean Newcomb is once again going to want to test FA for a starter's contract. Fedde is welcome back as an NRI in the Spring, and if no market is there for Richards he can rubber arm it again in the spring. Randal, we loved ya, but I am not betting on this continuing, and you don't solve our defense hole in LF.
FREE AGENTS
Taylor Ward (2 years, $26M): Not paying him the sun, stars and the moon here but I think he might be a little undervalued after he absolutely stunk post trade last year and tanked his statistical profile a bit. He is our new lefty masher instead of Grichuck who is 3 years younger and adds notably better OF defense than Sam. Don't worry, Sam is not being traded. Starting LF, Taylor Ward. Get excited. Again, nothing but respect for what Randal did for us but he is 2 years older than Ward with more injury history. Not going to pray for lightning to strike twice.
Sonny Gray (2 years, $60M): He seems pissed at the Red Sox about the way the end of the year went down, and honestly I want him to bring that energy with him. Venable is obsessed with the platoon splits, give me a veteran who wants the ball and wants to be a workhorse in October. Sean Burke proved he is ready to be our #2 guy next October, lets bring in Sonny to be #1. He is from TN, so this is closeish to home, and we've got money to spend. This man has throw 166 innings or more the last 4 years, we didn't have a single guy hit 160.
Alex Vesia (2 years, $20M): I am assuming Sean Newcomb gets something more like 2 for $30M in this world, otherwise just bring Sean back. Let's say we lose Sean though, here is my lefty bullpen piece with playoff experience replacement.
Jose Alvarado (1 year, $5M): Down year, walks were up, let's see if he can be our Hagen replacement in the bullpen.
TRADES
No. 1: Munetaka Murakami to Seattle for Logan Gilbert:
I know this sucks. Nobody wants this. However, I came into this project with the clear idea that one of Colson or Mune has to go. The last 2 months of the season were hard to watch with these two guys being our stars. The reality is, as discussed on the pod by Josh and Jim, Colson has no real trade value. If you're trading him, its a fun reclamation project type deal, nobody is going to give you guaranteed 2027 production for a SS who hit sub .200 and strikes out 45% off the time. We have Roch coming, but it won't be in 2028. For now we are going to roll with a very cheap Colson Montgomery who still does have that mesmerizing upside. And so, Mune goes. Mune was pretty unwatchable down the stretch and is an impending FA. I don't think you can see the last two months and sign him to an extension that would make sense for Mune. Similarly, I don't think after the 1H he had Mune is going to sign a team friendly extension. So we get to a situation where candidly, either Mune is 2H Mune and we have a $17M hole at 1B in a contention year, or Mune is 1H Mune and someone gives him $200M in the winter next year and as long as Jerry is here that won't be us. So we flip him for pitching. The Mariners have 6 starters, Gilbert is ALSO a pending FA and they need power badly. I wish Mune the absolute best.
No. 2: Billy Carlson, Joey Volchko and Drew Thorpe to LAA for Nolan Schanuel
Someone is probably going to tell me this trade sucks and they're probably right but this is my guess. Schanuel runs a 10% K rate at 1B. Our offense needs this so badly. Derek Shoman be damned, my Sox team is putting the damn ball in play. Again, Colson is still in my lineup.
No. 3: Edgar Quero to Philly for Dante Nori:
Nori is apparently friends with Bonemor, so send him to AAA to make him comfy. Nori has serious speed and defense, could be a potential TP replacement in CF if that doesn't sustain itself into the late 2020's. As an additional benefit he was on team Italy in the WBC with Teel and Sam and that team had great vibes. Seems like a fit. I just think Edgar is cooked and maybe Philly wants some Realmuto insurance with theoretical upside.
SUMMARY
Ok here is my 26 man roster
C (2): Kyle Teel, Veteran C of FA scrap heap that is cut by May and cycled through all year. Call him Jake Rogers if you want. Drew Romo will return and haunt our dreams at some point.
1B (1): Nolan Schanuel.
2B (2): Chase Meidroth, Sam Antonacci
SS (2): Colson Montgomery, Brooks Baldwin
3B (1): Miguel Vargas
LF (1): Taylor Ward
CF (2): Tristan Peters, Brenton Doyle
RF (1): Braden Montgomery
DH (1): Andrew Benintendi
SP (6): Sonny Gray, Sean Burke, Logan Gilbert Anthony Kay, Davis Martin, David Sandlin
RP (7): Alex Vesia, Bryan Hudson, Jose Alvarado, Grant Taylor, Jordan Hicks, Huascar Brazoban, Luis Castillo.
Here is our opening day lineup vs RHP
- Sam Antonacci, DH
- Nolan Schanuel, 1B
- Miguel Vargas, 3B
- Kyle Teel, C
- Colson Montgomery, SS
- Chase Meidroth, 2B
- Braden Mongtomery, RF
- Taylor Ward, LF
- Tristan Peters, CF
and LHP
- Chase Meidroth, 2B
- Taylor Ward, LF
- Miguel Vargas, 3B
- Nolan Schanuel, 1B
- Kyle Teel, C
- Brenton Doyle, CF
- Colson Montgomery, SS
- Braden Montgomery, RF
- Sam Antonacci, DH
Benny is a really expensive bench bat (Jerry isn't eating $15M for a roughly average hitter), Baldwin is UTIL, Rodgers or whoever backup C, and TP/Boyle is 4th OF.
Rotation is
- Sonny Gray
- Sean Burke
- Logan Gilbert
- Davis Martin*
- Anthony Kay
*Sandlin starting in bullpen but if Martin looks like 2H 2026 Martin were pulling the plug early.
Bullpen (in leverage order):
LHP: Vesia, Hudson, Jose Alvarado
RHP: Taylor, Hicks, Sandlin, Brazoban, Castillo*
*Hopefully he shows something as a reliever, if not, well then fake IL him and shut it down. Idk. We aren't eating this one either. Mike Vasil should be ready to take his spot when the times right, or Tanner McDougal.
** Hagen is in AAA as a starter. He was the #5 pick in the draft. Can't give up on the starter experiment yet.
There you have it. I think I am just a north of $130M. If it's too far north; well it's Jerrys money not mine. Or cut Luis Castillo a Kawhi Leonard type deal where Ishbia can pay him off the books in the 2030's as a retirement plan. Fraud is in right now with the current president, I am sure we can figure something out. More seriously, make Sonny Gray's deal $20M - $40M instead of $30, $30 and that way Jerry's got Benny out of the way next year when he owes Sonny the $40M. And if Vesia has to be some NRI then so be it, Hagen is probably taking that role in October anyways. I am terrified of extensions after the 2020's core group so we don't need to extend anyone yet anyways.
I like our rotation situation so much more and we have some genuine upside depth in Sandlin, Schultz, Smith and heck maybe Shane Smith. That top 3 can win us some playoff series. Trying to replicate what we survived with for 6 weeks this stretch run is a terrible idea, and I am not going to count on Martin, Schultz and Castillo to round out this rotation.
Lineup wise, it is less fun without Mune, no question. I think we will experience some fall of for sure, the HR power is clearly lightened swapping Mune for Schanuel. That being said, September and October with #5 up and men in scoring position wasn't much fun either. And him walking in December next year won't be any fun either. It has to be done. Caleb Bonemor is waiting in the wings, if Colson's striking out 40% again we move Chase to SS, Sam to 2B and Caleb can come DH. If Colson rediscovers something, great problem to have, and maybe we flip Caleb for more top end pitching for October when the time comes. I'm not counting on Colson, but he's still dirt cheap and I don't think he has a trade market commiserate with his upside, so Colson my friend, have a great winter and come back ready to rock.
Go Sox! *I already hate this and regret trading Mune
