To say it the way Chris Getz might say it, it's hard to understate the value of the White Sox sweeping their most direct challenger in the AL Central like they did to the Tigers over the weekend.
There's the matter of the ground gained in the actual standings -- not just three games against Detroit, but multiple games on the other two Central teams with a shot, as the Twins were swept by the Phillies, and the Guardians lost two of three to the Padres.
| Team | GB before | GB after |
|---|---|---|
| White Sox | -- | -- |
| Tigers | 2½ | 5½ |
| Twins | 3½ | 6 |
| Guardians | 4 | 6 |
But this weekend also tilted the projection systems in favor of the White Sox, as both FanGraphs (62.9 percent) and PECOTA (64.5) both see the White Sox as having a better chance to win the division than the other three teams combined. You can see the difference the weekend made with FanGraphs' projected standings, since you can revisit individual dates:
| Team | Div% before | Div% after |
|---|---|---|
| White Sox | 37.9 | 62.9 |
| Tigers | 25.4 | 10.6 |
| Guardians | 18.6 | 14.3 |
| Twins | 18.1 | 12.3 |
There's also the impact it had on the season series. The White Sox improved to 6-3 over the Tigers, meaning they only have to win one out of the last four games to secure the tiebreaker. They also have favorable records against Cleveland (6-4) and Minnesota (4-3), which could loom large if the best record in the AL Central continues to qualify as the second-best record in the division, and thus worthy of a first-round bye.
It's not time to let up, and even if it were, a crosstown series at a charged Wrigley Field between two October hopefuls wouldn't allow it. But the cushion might offer Will Venable a chance to pull back the reins on his pitching staff management should the opportunity allow, and he'd deserve the breather after some of his best work of the season.
Outside of Huascar Brazobán, every White Sox reliever offered scoreless work, and under circumstances outside of traditional usage patterns. Sean Newcomb opened the first game of the series, then closed out the finale with a 2⅓-inning save. Grant Taylor pitched 1⅔ innings on Friday, then a full inning in higher leverage on Saturday. Bryan Hudson pitched back-to-back ninths, picking up a save. Jordan Hicks tied his longest outing of the season with 1⅔ innings, and Hagen Smith completed Sean Burke's last inning, then handled one of his own.
| Pitcher | G | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcomb | 2 | 3.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Taylor | 2 | 2.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brazobán | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Hudson | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Hicks | 1 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Smith | 1 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 10 | 13.2 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
Venable charted an aggressive course for the series on Friday with borderline excessive force when he brought in Taylor with in the seventh inning with one out, nobody on and the White Sox leading by three. But since Brazobán had just given up two runs over three batters to give Detroit life, Venable prioritized winning the winnable game, rather than keeping powder drier for tougher situations over the remainder of the weekend.
Taylor rewarded Venable's aggressiveness by handling Friday's business efficiently enough to preserve his availability on Saturday, and the rest of the bullpen fell into line, Brazobán aside.
Given that the White Sox's pitching probables for the Cubs series are Luis Castillo and two question marks, and since Venable's staff is predisposed to pick up every $5 bill on the ground they see, you could continue to see them push their relievers beyond standard usage until the division is more or less in hand. But one of the benefits of using all hands on deck to beat a division rival is that it creates breathing room in non-division games, where trying to get an extra inning out of a starter/bulk guy, or using a medium-leverage arm in close-and-late situations, can be a forgiveable risk.
Perhaps we can regard this sort of decision-making strategy chart as the Trevor Richards Index, because he represents a specific role on the leverage ladder.
Richards didn't pitch at all during the Detroit series, and he appeared for just one outing against Cincinnati, although it was a season-long 2⅔ innings. Generally speaking, Venable won't go to him in medium-leverage or more if he doesn't have to, on account of Richards possessing the most beatable stuff among the bullpen's shorter relievers. But Richards has also performed well enough to merit the occasional difficult assignment, he's veteran enough that a failure won't rattle him, and if an outing goes sideways on him immediately, he's resilient enough to continue pitching and at least provide some semblance of quantity in lieu of quality.
Boiling it down, every Richards appearance in a game he can swing is a calculated risk. And after winning three games where he largely defaulted to the best bet available, and with 10 more games before the next off day, the most responsible course of action at Wrigley Field might involve more second-guessing. That said, if Castillo wants to delay this conversation by throwing another seven innings of shutout ball tonight and leave the remainder for Tyler Schweitzer, that would be the best way to generate rest.
