With the White Sox's season frozen in time for four days during the All-Star break, it was a good time to ask Sox Machine subscribers what was on their minds before the second half gets underway
The following questions are from subscribers who support Sox Machine at the 10 WAR tiers or higher. Want to get in on it? Join or upgrade today.
Now that the Sox are playing well enough to have us looking up their modeled playoff probability on a periodic basis, I’m curious to know how you all approach that estimate and whether you make any adjustments.
In my view, the models are likely to underrate this iteration of the Sox due to (a) any weight being applied to historical performance/preseason anchoring and (b) many young players with low sample sizes and systematic downward adjustments applied as a safety measure. I just…don’t know what a responsible or reasonable upward adjustment should look like. Do you?
Steve V.
James: All the various inputs and potential sources of regression to consider are precisely why a robust statistical model is necessary to properly weight this rather than some writer eye-balling it. They haven’t had Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Teel at the height of their powers yet, but also are getting offensive production from Tristan Peters that is basically 30 percent above league average, despite a 12th percentile hard-hit rate, and haven’t really been waylaid by significant pitching injuries.
Anecdotally, they’re 49-40 with a +66 run differential since their awful first road trip that led to a big team meeting, and are set to add at least to some degree at the deadline. So I’m at least treating them as a high-80s win total, mid-tier playoff contender, even if there’s not much scientific about it.
Jim: The playoff probabilities at FanGraphs and PECOTA have risen to the low-40s, and that feels right in this environment, if only because 12 of the 15 AL teams have probabilities over 20 percent. Usually at the break, there are eight such teams, maybe nine, so the size of the field is going to water down the percentages toward the top.
FanGraphs has the White Sox at 40.6 percent. You might say just 40.6 percent, yet it's the sixth-best probability in the field, and more than any other team below 50 percent. That means they have a better shot than anybody for the sixth seed, but you might bet on the field over the White Sox. I wouldn't argue too strenously with that, at least as they're presently constructed, with 3½ starters and just about all of their MLB-ready farm talent on hand. All it takes is a bad 10 days to send them back into that mess below-.500, but give them some reinforcements before the deadline to make a bad such 10 days less likely, and let's see what happens to their odds afterward.
The level of collaboration across the organization in preparing for this year's draft may be the most dramatic example of how Chris Getz has changed White Sox Business. Of particular interest to me was learning that international scouting director David Keller was attending domestic amateur games. I'd love to know more about how Keller and Carlos Rodriguez contribute to the decision-making process (not only for the draft, but in general), as it seems like their responsibilities overlap.
Asinwreck
And:
There are always those message board killjoys to remind us the White Sox are still decades behind the game in stats, tech and developmental sciences. But what does the rest of the league think of our front office, now? Can it be said that the Sox have "caught up" in some ways? Has Getz found his own market inefficiencies to exploit? Are other teams trying to copy the template, yet? Have other front offices taken notice to the extent that we now must dread the coming brain drain of nameless FO employees?
John G.
James: When I first met Keller years ago, pre-pandemic, he was doing domestic pro scouting. Hopefully he doesn’t mind me saying this at this point, because it was before he worked for the Sox, but he was one of the few people I reached out to after the Erick Fedde trade who defended the return because he had always been high on Miguel Vargas. Furthermore when Carlos Rodriguez was hired and I was asking Chris Getz about his role, the Sox GM said his experience across a bunch of different departments was the appeal, and that he would serve to boost the inter-connectivity of the organization. Back when Nick Hostetler was the scouting director, his draft evaluations were often brought in by the Rick Hahn-led front office for analyzing prospect trade targets, so it’s not like Getz invented talking to his lieutenants for things not directly under their purview. It’s just the full-organizational alignment that stands out, to where Rodriguez, Keller, Paul Janish, Gene Watson, Geoff Head and Louis Silverio all conferencing with each other on the field after Day 1 of the draft wasn’t a surprising sight.
Maybe because the people I talk to across the league lean toward the scouting and player development side of things, the main thing I hear is “players get better there now.” That can be a flattening euphemism for a lot of things, but generally alludes to their coaching communication style being well-regarded, their tech being playable and their talent acquisition being aligned with the types of players they’re good at improving. I don’t know if the Sox so much as exploited some signature new market inefficiency that everyone else will copy, as much as they accurately read what their risk tolerance should be based on their place in the league, took a lot of smart shots that contending teams wouldn’t be in a position to take on, and did a lot of work to convert them.
Ryan Fuller clearly anticipates losing hitting coaches to larger roles as a kind of cost of doing business. I don’t know if it will be a huge brain drain of FO employees, because it’s a smaller group relative to the league, and what people generally leave for is promotions. That said, we just saw some teams make a run at Josh Barfield just this past winter, before the Sox were one of the biggest improvement stories across the league. So pretty much anyone who isn’t in some top of their specialty role should be considered as a potential target.
How do you see the OF roster when/if Hays and Pereira return? Junior Perez is an obvious choice to be demoted but the other move seems more difficult. Who will be the primary backup in CF? Is Antonacci now the other reserve infielder with Acuna? Finally, how long will the Sox absorb Romo’s abysmal hitting?
cmansoxfan
James: Including his spring oblique strain, Pereira has been injured four times in four different ways. Hays is basically trying to rehab from his calf strain for a third time. It’s hard to get more speculative than considering how they would both fit on the roster, and I think they’re both kind of tenuous bids to replace Pérez. Maybe neither will work out and the Sox need to see what other possibilities are out there. Luisangel Acuña, in addition to hitting a bit better of recent, provides some options as a pinch runner and probably the most rawly talented shortstop defender on the roster, that neither Pereira nor Hays can fulfill despite being more traditionally productive players. So I think the Sox would actually not rush to jettison Acuña to get both right-handed bats in the fold, if it ever comes to that, especially for as long as Randal Grichuk continues to be basically what they wanted from Hays.
Jim: I think Quero can take Romo's plate appearances at any time, and Quero is starting to pick it up at Charlotte after a slow start, so perhaps they're waiting fo the value of everyday plate appearances to diminish before making a swap. Or maybe they claim some veteran on waivers.
Staff has a lot of question marks for the second half. Some speculate Sox will trade from their prospects to bring in a starter who likely wouldn’t be just a 2 month rental.
OTOH, the organization has a small bus load of potential fill-ins of unknown current capability,...from the haven’t done it yet like Hagen S and McDougal... to the used to do it like Shane S…. and the not sure if they are doing it now like Schultz and Sandlin and Adams.
Then there’s the could join from the IL in the second half guys like Berroa, Bush, Leasure, Gilbert, and Thorpe. And some still like Cannon for fodder.
How do you think SOX view this pile of possible help? And how are they going to act based on their perspectives?
What do you guys think they SHOULD do?
RainDelayTheater
And:
Do you think the Sox will try their existing depth options - Smith (Shane or Hagen), McDougal, Quero, Hayes, and/or Pererira - before attempting trades? Do they have time to audition these players before having to make deals?
Andrew S.
And:
I am wondering if given the near possible re-emergence of Shane Smith in the rotation, with David Sandlin and / or Duncan Davitt close to a MLB role, and possibly Tanner McDougal and Jairo Iriarte for the bullpen, with Austin Hays and Everson Pereira nearing a return in the outfield, whether the Sox could simply resist adding from outside the organization at the Trade Deadline? Perhaps there is no prospect worth giving up at this stage and we go for it with what we have? Sometimes no action is the best action.
John S.
James: Shane Smith is the starter I’m taking most seriously as a second half contributor. Hagen Smith and Tanner McDougal are pretty much bullpen contributors for this season. Drew Thorpe is an unknown until he’s ramped up and pitching in games, Jordan Leasure and Prelander Berroa have to successfully ramp up from injury and demonstrate usable command before they’re really leverage options and that’s not happening for either pre-deadline. Sandlin has good stuff but whether he’s a long-term starter was an open question coming in that has yet to be answered, and Schultz hasn’t been convincing as a playoff starter as of yet.
So factoring in that injuries are inevitable and extend beyond what we can predict, I think adding a starter and reliever remains a baseline of what they need to do by the start of August.
Jim: I suppose I can throw in Jonathan Cannon as somebody to not give up on, and I'd put him ahead of Davitt in such sixth-starter conversations, but yeah, I think fans can channel 2020 Rick Renteria and look at it in terms of "Who can be expected to start a postseason game?" Then you realize that counting to three isn't a lock, and that's when you start keeling over.
Hey guys, I swear I’m learning to keep my mouth shut on social media and avoid my usual knee jerk overreactions to Sox losses and player slumps. This team is teaching me a lesson. But while I’m a big fan of our potential superstar shortstop, why is the glaring fact that Montgomery strikes out a nearly 40% rate so often overlooked? Is this something that the brain trust feels will be overcome? He seems to have some gaping holes in his swing.
Matt
James: My main concern would be his shortstop defense backing up over the last month, with some uncharacteristic misplays that will naturally lead to questions about how his back is affecting him. Because his chase rate remains elevated and needs to improve, the coaching staff reiterates that he should have more adjustability in his swing long-term, but if he’s a shortstop with 40-homer juice who is a top-10 defender at the position, then yeah, probably no one will care about his strikeout rate as much as you’d expect.
Jim: Watching the White Sox displace José Valentín with Royce Clayton because they were itchy about his error count was a very instructive experience in seeing a team obsess about a weakness to the point that it went out of its way to sap a strength. Montgomery is probably the kind of player whose weaknesses will require some compensation from the rest of the roster, but he's also making the league minimum and there isn't anybody challenging him at his position, so he's not tying up resources.
Looking at the club's 2026 draft, how many members of the 2026 White Sox draft will surpass the thresholds of 225 major league at bats (position players), 60 innings pitched (starters) or 18 game appearances (relievers)?
Debbie W.
Jim: I started by looking up what a typical 20-round White Sox draft class produces with regards to these criteria, and here's what you get based on current prospect trajectories.
2024: Sam Antonacci made it, Hagen Smith and Caleb Bonemer seem likely, Pierce George possible.
2023: Grant Taylor made it, Jacob Gonzalez should get there this year, Mathias LaCombe possible.
2022: Jonathan Cannon and Brooks Baldwin made it, Noah Schultz and Peyton Pallette are close, Tyler Schweitzer and Mason Adams are possible.
2021: Colson Montgomery, Sean Burke and Fraser Ellard made it, Tanner McDougal seems likely.
So three or four players is a typical outcome, and while this draft class should produce more given the No.1 pick and record draft pool -- and while the team has improved at improving -- they also selected a lot of players with defined strengths and weaknesses, which creates the potential for booms and busts. So let's say Roch is a lock, one of Landon Thome/Cole Prosek, two of Joey Volchko/Eric Segura/Cal Scolari, and then a random reliever popping to get to five.
12) One of the factors suggested for home vs away splits has been access to Trakekt only at home. Is there a business opportunity for someone to site a Trajekt machine near a ballpark, and rent it out to visiting teams? I imagine they might not be too popular in the neighborhood however.
– Captain Euphemism
James: Other than being a bit more bearish to the idea that Trajekt is a miracle product responsible for leaguewide home/road splits that predate its existence, my prediction for the market of renting out access to Trajekts is that it would breakdown more to the private training facility, agency connection level rather than whole teams contracting out the facility. Maybe because I just listened to Freddie Freeman explain his opposition to machine reps entirely at the All-Star Game, maybe because I just listened to Randal Grichuk explain how machines can’t simulate release extension in a helpful way, but mostly because it seems like MLB teams are desperate to slash operational costs in every way. I think the pay-to-train model would trickle down to individual players seeking extra accommodations.
Feedback around the new CBA seems to focus on the players and owners. Of the proposals socialized thus far, what proposals would be best for the fans? Isn’t that what we should care about?
mjsambor
Jim: Sure, but the problem with the “best for the fans” lens is that what's ultimately “best for the fans” is minimal disruption to the on-field product, and that typically manifests itself in pressuring the players to accept whatever the league puts forth, no matter how damaging it could be to the strength of the union in future negotiations. The union has the right to refuse proposals, and that's a right we respect.
Besides, both sides are still staking out the endpoints too much to be invested in proposal specifics, and if it's anything like the last go-around, the league probably won't improve its offers meaningfully until the threat of missed games becomes real. This is going to take a while.
James: The fans aren’t signatories on the deal, so they aren’t a population that either side will ultimately be fighting for the interests of. Anyone who claims otherwise simply isn’t trustworthy, so that’s the prism through which I would find either side making appeals to the fans the most interesting.
With the All-Star Game marking a bit more than half of the season, which White Sox minor league pitcher and position player have impressed you the most so far?
Kevin H.
Jim: The minor league players who have impressed me the most are no longer in the minors, as Noah Schultz came out dealing, and Jacob Gonzalez's turnaround is the kind of thing that will make it hard to give up on a prospect from this point forward (“Remember Jacob Gonzalez, though…”).
Of the players whose performances are captured in the Minor Keys, Caleb Bonemer is an easy choice because the power really pops in person, and recent slump aside, Anthony DePino's production has been bulletproof. He has a narrow path due to being a 5-foot-11-inch first baseman, but he's thus far a feather in the cap for the White Sox's R&D department as applied to the draft.
Figuring out a pitcher for a given Fortnight's Finest has been challenging enough, so I can't present a single pitcher with a whole lot of conviction. I'd probably say Pierce George has been the most impressive in short outings, but even then, he's dealing with a harder transition to Double-A than I'd figured, so I'm curious to see whether Mathias LaCombe experiences the same difficulties at Birmingham.
James: Sam Antonacci is probably the evaluation I feel most haunted by. He added a chunk of bat speed to counter my skepticism about his power, and my belief that he wasn’t a good second base defender hasn’t been undercut by him being jammed into left field. So the bones of my argument make sense, but whenever you projected someone as not an everyday regular and they respond by putting up a .380 OBP for more than 300 PA as a rookie, crow is on the menu.
I felt that once Gabe Davis made it to Double-A by showing restored stuff and potential starter command after the rocky junior season he had, that the rest of the season is mostly gravy. His Birmingham work has put that to the test more than I’d like, but he’s still the prospect arm that’s risen most in stock to me.
Jim: Is Christian Oppor's season beneath haunting?
James: As profound of a bummer I find Oppor's struggles to be, I don't find myself as troubled by dreaming on someone who has run into awful struggles, as I do about letting myself get preoccupied with the shortcomings of a prospect that I really liked. It is better to have loved a hard-throwing lefty and watch him fall apart, than to think that Antonacci having bleh defensive video at second base was going to stop him.
There's also obviously a lesson in both. Maybe the next pitcher who can't get his front foot direct to the plate, I won't see so much as a fun delivery quirk, but as someone with limited hip mobility. And the next player that I think is fundamentally an unkillable force of nature, I won't get as preoccupied with their secondary tools.
