Last August, when the Chicago White Sox were actually playing good baseball, I wrote about whether their recent surge in positive performance would hurt their MLB draft lottery odds. It didn't, and in part of that assessment, I made some estimates of what the 2026 draft bonus pools could look like. My estimate of the Pick 1 slot bonus being $11,605,350 was a bit too high. As reported by MLB.com’s Jim Callis, the White Sox first overall pick carries a bonus value of $11,350,600. That’s an increase of 2.4% from last year.
No, that doesn’t mean UCLA shortstop Roch Cholowsky is signing for $11 million. Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes still holds the draft signing bonus record at $9.2 million for the first overall pick. In 2024, both Chase Burns and Charlie Condon shared the MLB draft bonus record signing for $9.25 million. Cholowsky will more than likely set a new record, but still fall shy of signing for $10 million.
Which means that White Sox director of amateur scouting, Mike Shirley, will wield more financial power in later rounds. Especially in the second round, where with pick No. 41, Shirley can offer a bonus that’s equal or better than pick No. 25.
| Round | Pick # | Slot Value |
| 1 | 1 | $11,350,600 |
| 2 | 41 | $2,446,100 |
| 3 | 77 | $1,086,600 |
| 4 | 105 | $747,700 |
| 5 | 137 | $547,700 |
| 6 | 166 | $413,900 |
| 7 | 195 | $325,100 |
| 8 | 225 | $256,500 |
| 9 | 255 | $217,000 |
| 10 | 285 | $200,900 |
The White Sox's overall bonus pool is $17,592,100, and I’m holding firm to the idea that pick No. 41 will sign for at least $2.95 million, much like Caleb Bonemer and Jaden Fauske have in recent drafts. If Shirley wanted, he might be able to offer $2 million or more at pick No. 77, which is higher than the 50th pick's draft slot. While Cholowsky is a great college player (more on him later), the biggest benefit to the White Sox's rebuild efforts in this upcoming draft is having financial flexibility to draft and sign up to three top-50 prospects. Now having the bonus pools and slot values in hand, this is where covering the draft starts getting fun.
Roch Report: Rivalry weekend presents big test for Cholowsky
All eyes in the college baseball world are set on Jackie Robinson Field this weekend for No. 9 USC at No. 1 UCLA. The Bruins are on a 20-game winning streak, 12-0 in Big Ten play, and are averaging 10.9 runs per game in conference play. They have been by far the best team in college baseball and are putting together one of the best seasons in recent memory.
Maybe the biggest surprise this season is USC's emergence. Starting the season unranked, the Trojans have climbed the ladder and are challenging for a top-eight seed. That would give them a chance to host Super Regionals alongside their Los Angeles rivals, an unfathomable thought before this season began. Thanks to their pitching, USC is 27-3 and 10-2 in conference play. Opponents are averaging 2.9 runs per game against USC. This series is a classic of the best offense against the best pitching in the country.
When watching Cholowsky this weekend, I’m curious to see how USC pitchers attack him. Most Big Ten teams continue to stay away from Cholowsky, which has limited the damage he can do. While he does have a .531 OBP against Big Ten teams, Cholowsky only has two home runs in 12 conference games.
| Opponent | GP | AVG | OBP | SLG | 2B | HR | RBI | K | BB |
| Big Ten | 12 | 0.348 | 0.531 | 0.543 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 14.0% | 17.1% |
| Non-Big Ten | 16 | 0.345 | 0.455 | 0.500 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 7.8% | 10.5% |
Friday night, Cholowsky will face USC ace, the left-handed Mason Edwards. By finding more juice in the four-seamer and finding a more consistent release with his secondaries, Edwards has improved his draft stock to be considered in the late first round. In seven starts, Edwards has a 0.67 ERA in 40⅓ innings, striking out 74 while walking 20. Opposing hitters are batting .082 against Edwards.
Right-hander Grant Govel will start on Saturday for USC, and while he doesn’t have Edwards' impressive strikeout rate, the sophomore has displayed excellent control. In seven starts, Govel has a 1.20 ERA with only five walks in 45 innings pitched.
Breaking down his offensive numbers by days of the week, which in college baseball is somewhat useful when determining if a hitter is just feasting on underdeveloped pitching. Cholowsky has done great against Friday night aces this season, but has taken a significant dip against opposing schools' No. 2 starters.
| Day | AVG | OBP | SLG | 2B | HR | RBI | K | BB |
| Friday | 0.370 | 0.514 | 0.778 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 5.4% | 13.5% |
| Saturday | 0.269 | 0.394 | 0.500 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15.1% | 9.0% |
| Sunday | 0.357 | 0.526 | 0.714 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 15.7% | 15.7% |
| Midweek | 0.391 | 0.515 | 0.870 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 6.2% | 15.6% |
While Edwards vs. Cholowsky is the main event, I’ll be paying just as much attention Saturday night when it’s Govel’s turn to face the draft’s top prospect. His ability to spin the ball will help assess just how well Cholowsky is seeing breaking stuff.
Game times and stream
- Friday, 8:00 PM CT - B1G+
- Saturday, 4:00 PM CT - B1G+
- Sunday, 5:00 PM CT - Big Ten Network
MLB draft motes
- In nine SEC games, Alabama shortstop Justin Lebron has three home runs and seven RBIs. That’s the good news. The concern is that Lebron has six strikeouts to one walk, and is batting .222 against SEC pitchers. Conference play last year was when Lebron saw his offensive production significantly drop off. Traveling to Norman, Okla., to face the No. 16 Sooners, it would be nice to see Lebron have a strong weekend to shake doubt about his hitting potential.
- UC Santa Barbara righty Jackson Flora hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts. Against Oregon last weekend, Flora went 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K on 95 pitches. Flora’s season ERA is 0.83, and he could very well be in play for the second overall pick.
- Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey is challenging Lebron as the second-best college bat in this draft class. Lackey has homered in back-to-back games against NC State and No. 12 Auburn, and now has 11 dingers for the season. In 28 games, Lackey is batting .416/.532/.851
- Texas A&M outfielder Caden Sorrell still has an issue with strikeouts, punching out at an alarming 24 percent clip. But when he does make contact there’s legit power, as he now has 14 home runs and nine doubles in 26 games. It’s an impressive slash line of .387/.472/.868, but with lots of strikeouts (30 on the season).
- Florida State first baseman Myles Bailey was having a terrific season until he suffered a devastating injury sliding into second base. The school announced that Bailey successfully underwent surgery to repair his right ankle, but he will miss the rest of the 2026 season. As a draft-eligible sophomore, Bailey could garner interest starting in the third round for his left-handed power potential.
