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Analysis

One week out, let’s predict the White Sox’s Opening Day 26-man roster

James Fegan/Sox Machine

Opening Day is one week away, and since the last time we tried taking a stab at laying out the 26-man roster the White Sox will bring to Milwaukee, the team has answered one question with regards to its Opening Day rotation, while Mike Vasil's torn UCL has created a new vacancy with a few possibilities for filling it.

Besides Vasil's impending Tommy John surgery, let's post a few other updates to inform any revised thinking:

No. 1: The White Sox have 40 players remaining in camp; 20 pitchers, four catchers, eight infielders and eight outfielders.

No. 2: Alexander Alberto cleared waivers and was returned to the Rays, so the 40-man roster is down to 39.

No. 3: Brooks Baldwin still hasn't played since March 6 due to elbow inflammation. The White Sox won't release their split squad lineups until later because both games are at night, but if he's not on either card, then it's hard to see him having the time to build back up.

Now, let's take one more stab at going 26-for-26, even if it's only slightly more likely than picking a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket.

Starting pitchers (5)

  • Shane Smith
  • Sean Burke
  • Anthony Kay
  • Davis Martin
  • Erick Fedde

Ever since Fedde signed at the start of spring camp, this has been the most likely Opening Day rotation, and barring injury between now and next Thursday, this is the plan. The only thing that's changed from last week is the order of names, because Will Venable disclosed this schedule himself.

Relief pitchers (8)

  • Seranthony Dominguez
  • Grant Taylor
  • Jordan Leasure
  • Sean Newcomb
  • Jordan Hicks
  • Brandon Eisert
  • Chris Murphy
  • Jedixson Paez

Vasil will be traveling with the White Sox for morale purposes, but he's no longer part of the on-field mix for 2026, so two new names slide in. There's room for Rule 5 pick Jedixson Paez to try hacking it as a right-handed long reliever out of the gate, while FutureSox's Elijah Evans reported that Chris Murphy will be on hand to provide additional bulk. He can take the place of Tyler Gilbert, although it wouldn't be surprising to see the White Sox max out their number of options for both lefties over the course of the season.

Catchers (2)

  • Edgar Quero
  • Korey Lee

'Twas ever* thus.

*At least since Kyle Teel's hamstring strain.

Infielders (6)

  • Munetaka Murakami
  • Chase Meidroth
  • Colson Montgomery
  • Miguel Vargas
  • Lenyn Sosa
  • Lamonte Wade Jr.

As an out-of-options righty who doesn't offer much in the way of defensive or baserunning value, Curtis Mead came into the spring having a tough time distinguishing himself from Sosa, and his Cactus League play hasn't presented a counterpoint. So let's say the White Sox add Wade to give the bench a lefty for the first few weeks of the season, even if it feels like the last infielder is merely keeping a seat warm for Sam Antonacci, whoever that may be.

Outfielders (5)

  • Andrew Benintendi
  • Luisangel Acuña
  • Austin Hays
  • Derek Hill
  • Jarred Kelenic

Everson Pereira's ramp-up from his oblique injury has been a smooth one in term of availability, and he hit a homer -- with a 46-degree launch angle -- against the Cubs last week, but otherwise the results haven't been there. It's a small sample that can be easily overwritten with a couple of strong games, so I'm putting little confidence in this change.

For the sake of conversation, though, let's say he approaches Opening Day with his production resembling his current line (.143/.294/.357, five strikeouts over 17 PAs). That makes Hill the more useful player. He's a superior defender and baserunner, and while he's five years older than Pereira, he doesn't have to accrue regular playing time to provide value. Hill has also been one of the team's most impactful hitters this spring (.297/.395/.595), which probably doesn't mean anything in terms of his long-term forecast, but if the organization are thinking about which player is more likely to clear waivers at a given time, it makes some sense to strike while the iron is freezing.

Pereira might be a worthwhile project for extended run at some point, but I think the White Sox have set expectations to the point where they're going to run with the most functional roster out of the gate, and wait for the standings to tell them when they can prioritize development.

Then again, the answer to the Pereira-or-Hill question could be "neither." If the White Sox felt like prioritizing Mead among the out-of-options types, then Tristan Peters could scratch the lefty-bench-bat itch instead of Wade. He earned a cup of coffee with Tampa Bay last season, he's having a decent spring on both sides of the ball, and he's already on the 40-man roster with options remaining. Options are welcome.

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