PREAMBLE
Last year, I probably had the most ludicrous OPP. I make no apologies. We needed a dream.
This year, it's more measured. I'm still stretching the budget a little, but not to a laughable extent. The idea is to aim for a .500 team. I think it's possible. This team played at a 70-win pace after the ASG, despite a wretched stretch toward the end and an unreliable pen. Better relievers, growth from the young guys, and getting a few pitchers back from TJS ought to help. Sox just need a little more nudging.
COACHING STAFF
- Hitting coach: Cody Atkinson
- Pitching coach: Trent Blank
Keep Grady. I'm not sure his role, but the Sox have played better since he became more involved. Players seem to like him.
ARBITRATION-ELIGIBLE PLAYERS
- Mike Tauchman: Non-tender
- Steven Wilson: Tender
- Derek Hill: Non-tender
Tauchman was good and I could see bringing him back, but not at that price. Hill just hasn't done much. Wilson isn't good necessarily, but at that price, he saves the Sox from having to find another arm for the pen.
CLUB OPTIONS
- Luis Robert Jr.: Buy out for $2 million
- Martín Perez: Buy out for $1.5 million
No on Robert. Bring him back for $6M or cut him loose. Sox had their chance to get value for him after the 2023 season. He's an underperforming Byron Buxton; there's just not a lot of value there, unless you have him as a platoon player. Even then, not $20M worth of value. Perez, same deal, but with a team option for 2027 at $11M. When healthy, he pitched well.
FREE AGENTS
#1: Adrian Houser, 2 year $15M (total, split evenly), team option for $11M for '28, $1M buyout. Houser pitched great for the Sox. Spotrac has his value at 2 years, $20.5M, but that feels high to me given his spotty performance history. If he gets a better offer, of course I'd expect him to take it, but it's also undeniable that he pitched much better for the Sox than for even the pitching development guru Rays.
#2: Cody Ponce, 2 year, $20M, team option for $15M for '28, $1M buyout. Going to the KBO worked with Fedde and the Sox have done well of late with getting the most out of their limited rotation talent. That said, if Perez returns, Houser / Ponce becomes either / or, not both. Sox rotation would be Shane Smith, Burke, Gomez, two of Perez, Ponce, Houser, Davis Martin, and Drew Thorpe if he returns strong. Hopefully, Sox will also get on or both of Schultz and Hagen right and get some contributions from them next year.
#3 Taylor Rogers, 2 year, $7M. This is right in line with Spotrac's value and it seems fair. Sox desperately need some more stability and competence, if I'm being frank, in their bullpen.
#4 Andrew Chafin, 1 year, $4M, with team option on second year (I like team options if you can't tell) for $5M on 2027 with $500K buyout. He's getting older, but still finds ways to limit damage and get guys out, something the Sox really struggled with the last few years.
#5 Trent Grisham, 4 years, $52M. This comes in about $1M/yr higher than Spotrac's estimate, but he's probably the 2nd best CF on the market after Bellinger. Since I'm intending to let Robert walk (unless he somehow takes my $6M offer to stay) and the Sox really don't have anyone ready in Charlotte, I'm taking my big swing here. OYou'll note that for about the same cost as Robert, I can afford a year each of Rogers, Chafin, and Grisham, improving the CF production and seriously boosting the pen.
#6 Ryan O'Hearn, 2 years, $24M. My second-biggest swing. This gives Braden Montgomery time to develop and, if O'Hearn keeps hitting like he has been, opens the door to a trade at this time next year. I'm aware that the OF defense will be a problem, but the Sox need bats and BP arms. I don't think the combined defense is Eloy and Vaughn bad, while the bats should aggregate to better.
#7 Devin Williams, 1 year $6M, team option for $11M with $1M buyout. For years, he was one of the best relievers in the game, then last year turned abysmal. He's my big flip candidate. At this price point, it's not a huge commitment, even from the Sox, while the return could huge if he returns to form.
TRADES
Lenyn Sosa: to any team for a lottery ticket. Yeah, I know I'm supposed to be more specific, but honestly, he's a league average bat and can't defend well anywhere. Sox need the DH spot for whichever of Teel or Quero isn't catching that day or to give AB an occasional break from fielding. Who gets the AB's? Fan favorite Tim Elko. He may be a AAAA player, but I want him to have an extended chance to prove himself. Vargas, Quero, and Teel can also take reps here. 1B is easy, tell 'im, Wash.
SUMMARY
Opening Day roster:
LF: Benintendi
CF: Grisham
RF: O'Hearn
3B: Vargas
SS: Montgomery
2B: Meidroth
1B: Elko
C: Teel
DH: Quero
Rotation:
Shane Smith
Burke
Ponce
Houser
Martin or Thorpe
Pen:
Vasil
Altavilla
Rogers
Chafin
W. Gonzalez
Taylor
Wilson
Gilbert
There are some depth concerns, but I honestly feel this is a .500 team if it remains largely healthy. With so many guys on pre-arb deals, my estimated total is still right around $90M. There's also room to shuffle the bullpen with guys like Bush, Ellard, Leasure, etc., should they prove themselves. Baldwin and Mead are utility guys. Last two spots are up for grabs with Ramos, Tauchman if he comes back cheaper, and almost any position player from Charlotte in the mix.
I may have overpaid for some of these FA's, but it was in the name of getting them to join the Sox. The idea here is to get to .500 this year, supplement a little in '27 to get to 85-90 wins (which might well be enough to win the Central anyway), then go for it in '28...as much as Jerry can stomach.
