2025 MLB Draft Report: Playing out draft scenarios in final mock

Attempting to put together a mock draft for this class feels like an exercise in futility. Things seemed easy a couple of weeks ago. Then the Washington Nationals fired general manager Mike Rizzo, opening up the possibility of a change of direction with the first pick.

Speaking with Nationals beat reporters on Tuesday, July 8, interim general manager Mike DeBartolo shared how he’s approaching the first-pick process.

“They've been working hard for this moment, almost even before the last Draft ended. I'll bring my own voice to that process, and I'll work collaboratively with them and take what they have to say and ultimately be responsible for making the picks.”

The industry assumption is that Debartolo will decide between LSU lefty Kade Anderson and prep shortstop Ethan Holliday. What if we are wrong because DeBartolo’s data and instincts say go in another direction? That will screw up a lot of mock drafts. 

Rather than play a straight mock draft, let’s play out some scenarios and ponder how they could impact what the White Sox want to accomplish with picks Nos. 10 and 44. Mike Shirley recently told our James Fegan that he aims to get “2-for-1” with the first two draft selections. We’ll come back to this thought process in a moment.

First Pick: Washington Nationals

With the first pick slot valued at $11,075,900, I fully expect the Nationals to save money with whomever they sign. The franchise record for the largest draft day bonus was given to Dylan Crews when he was selected second overall in 2023 for $9 million. I don’t think the Nationals save $2 million with the first pick, but maybe a target of $10 million could work. That bonus savings could help increase their offering at the 49th pick close to $3 million. 

I don’t think either Anderson or Holliday would scoff at a $10 million offering. Ethan’s older brother, Jackson, signed a $8.19 million bonus when he was taken first overall by Baltimore in 2022. So, with money not being that big of an issue, let’s play out a couple of scenarios in how what the Nationals do at pick one impacts the first four selections.

Nationals select LHP Kade Anderson

• No. 2 pick: Los Angeles Angels -- Word on the street is that it’s either Anderson or lefty Liam Doyle going second overall with a goal of fast tracking to the majors. Doyle would be the pick in this scenario. 
• No. 3: Seattle Mariners -- It doesn’t appear that Seattle has a ton of interest in Holliday and latest gossip suggests pitching is the direction at pick 3. With Anderson and Doyle off the board in this scenario, I think the discussion comes down to prep RHP Seth Hernandez or LHP Jamie Arnold. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel on Friday mocked Hernandez to Seattle, so let’s run with that. 
• No. 4: Colorado Rockies - The worst-kept secret is Rockies' desire to draft Holliday. They get their wish.

So if Anderson goes first overall, I don’t expect a lot of shockwaves.

But if the Nationals take Holliday first overall...

Nationals select SS Ethan Holliday

• No. 2: Los Angeles Angels -- Anderson
• 3rd Pick: Seattle Mariners -- Hernandez
• 4th Pick: Colorado Rockies - Shrug. I don’t have a good feel for what the Rockies would do if they can’t draft Holliday. We assume pitching with Doyle, Arnold, and Kyson Witherspoon being the best arms available, but it’s unclear what the backup plan is for Colorado. 

My gut says the Nationals are taking Anderson first overall in hopes of fast-tracking him to the majors and help lead a rotation with MacKenzie Gore.

Josh’s Final Mock Draft

Latest Draft Gossip for Picks 5-9

• According to McDaniel, St. Louis is deciding between prep shortstops Eli Willits and JoJo Parker. Having LHP Jamie Arnold still on the board could complicate the decision-making, but I’m leaning toward shortstop for the Cardinals.
• For Pittsburgh, which we’ll be visiting next weekend for the annual road trip, I think it’s between Arnold and Oregon State SS Aiva Arquette. 
• I’m assuming Miami is taking a prep position player, and it will be whichever one St. Louis doesn’t take at pick 5
• Pitching has been tied to the Toronto Blue Jays throughout the draft process, but this is another team where I’m not sure what their pick would be if Parker finds a way to fall in their laps. 
• Cincinnati would love for Seth Hernandez to fall to them, but they are truly indifferent about player profiles and aim to take whoever is highest on their board. It makes them unpredictable, and it could cause the White Sox to sweat. Auburn OF Ike Irish and Oklahoma RHP Kyson Witherspoon have been linked to the Reds.

White Sox Options at Pick 10

On my Watch Board and the Sox Machine Top 100 Rankings, the best player available is prep shortstop Billy Carlson. If the first nine picks unfolded like the above mock, I figure the White Sox would be running to the podium immediately to add a shortstop like Carlson to the prospect pipeline. Since Carlson is a Tennessee commit and NIL money will be a factor in negotiations, I don’t imagine there will be much cost savings for the White Sox. 

But I’ve been thinking about Shirley’s “2-for-1” comment. 

If Shirley means financially finding a way to take two similarly talented at picks 10 and 44, the only way of accomplishing that task is making an under-slot deal in the first round. Instead of taking a top-10 prospect like Carlson, the White Sox would be looking at players ranked between 25 and 35 in the Sox Machine Top 100. After the Houston Astros pick 21st, slot values are below $4 million. The combined value of the 10th and 44th picks is $8,462,000 for the White Sox. What if they were able to draft and sign two prep bats for $4.5 million at 10 and 44? 

Looking at the rankings, that would be something like taking prep third baseman Gavin Fien, shortstop Daniel Pierce, or Wake Forest outfielder Ethan Conrad at pick 10 and then giving first-round money to prep LHP Kruz Schoolcraft at pick 44.

Who is Gavin Fien? 

A right-handed hitting third baseman who is already 6'3" and 200 pounds as an 18-year old, Fien had a very successful Team USA campaign last summer. In eight games, Fien batted .400/.429/.680 with three doubles and two triples. At the MLB Draft Combine, Fien’s average exit velocity was 97 mph, while his max velocity was 107.5 mph. Data aside, most comments about Fien’s swing focus on his hand placement being high, and perhaps an adjustment will be needed to catch up to higher pitch velocities. 

Defensively, Fien doesn’t have the lateral movement to be a shortstop but has plenty of arm strength to stick at third base or move to a corner outfield position. A Texas commit, Fien is often mocked in the late first round or comp picks and ranks 25th on the Sox Machine Top 100. 

Who is Daniel Pierce? 

Similar to Steele Hall, Daniel Pierce is another right-handed hitting shortstop who has climbed up draft boards during the prep season. He's not as fast as Hall, but Pierce has posted strong 60-yard dash times (6.49 seconds) to merit at least a 60 grade for speed. That level of athleticism gives hope that Pierce can stick at shortstop professionally. During the Perfect Game showcase, Pierce threw 90 mph in infield drills. 

Offensively, scouts think Pierce will continue to get stronger. He did not hit during the MLB Draft Combine, and from watching a film from Perfect Game batting practice, Pierce will need to adjust, as he holds the bat upright as the pitch is delivered. A Georgia commit, Pierce ranks 28th in the Sox Machine Top 100 rankings.

Who is Ethan Conrad? 

Transferring from Marist, Ethan Conrad appeared to be on the path of a special season at Wake Forest before a shoulder injury required season-ending surgery. In 21 games with Wake Forest, Conrad hit .372/.495/.744 with seven home runs and eight doubles. Last summer at the Cape Cod league, Conrad hit .385/.433/.486 in 30 games with two home runs but 19 stolen bases. 

Conrad is a left-handed-hitting outfielder who has a chance to play center field with better-than-expected athleticism. His max exit velocity before the injury was 109.7 mph with an in-zone contact rate of 88.1 percent, according to D1Baseball. Watching game action, Conrad has quick hands, and there’s potential to generate good bat speed at the next level. It’s a matter of how his shoulder is operating after surgery to determine the level of risk an MLB team is willing to take while negotiating a signing bonus.

Who is Kruz Schoolcraft? 

Our preseason Lil Jimmy Prep Player to Watch, Kruz Schoolcraft is a giant 6-foot-8-inch left-handed pitcher who does a good job of repeating his delivery. However, reports during the season suggest his inconsistency with fastball velocity. Some are high on Schoolcraft’s secondary offerings, a changeup and slider, as he gets excellent extension with his big, athletic body frame. 

There’s a dream that Schoolcraft could be a 70-grade power bat, but that would mostly be as a DH or first baseman. If Schoolcraft opted for the college route, there is no clarity on whether Tennessee coach Tony Vitello would allow him to DH on his non-pitching days.

Because he's a lefty, the White Sox are naturally tied to Schoolcraft thanks to the organization’s success with Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon, and Garrett Crochet. Schoolcraft ranks 27th on the Sox Machine Top 100.

Let’s review the draft strategies.

Option 1: Draft the best player available that the White Sox can sign

In my mock draft, this would result in Carlson at No. 10. If the White Sox internally have Steele Hall ranked higher than Carlson, that works for this strategy. For the second round, the White Sox can use cost savings from later picks to increase the signing bonus to around $3 million for pick 44.

Option 2: Play the 2-for-1 game

Select a player underslot at pick 10 (Fien, Pierce, or Conrad), and then negotiate with Schoolcraft's agent to work out a deal at pick 44.

Josh’s Choice: Option 1 - take Billy Carlson

I’m first guessing, but the fact that Baltimore has four picks before the White Sox select again makes me worry about the 2-for-1 strategy. If the two picks were closer together, I could see the strategy being viable, but it's still risky. I prefer Carlson over Hall, but regardless, the White Sox should select a prep shortstop with their first pick.

White Sox Options at Pick 44

I’m expecting a lot of prep players to be selected in the comp rounds, as those teams with extra picks flex their financial muscles. If the White Sox want another prep player, these are the five best remaining on the Top 100 Rankings in this mock: 

• SS Tate Southisene
• LHP Cameron Appenzeller
• C Taitn Gray
• OF Jacob Parker
• OF Brock Sell 

Keep in mind that Appenzeller was on the White Sox Area Code team last year. 

If my mock is close to how the dominoes fall, the Sox could use the 44th pick on a college bat to add some much-needed outfield depth even if the field is flawed. The best remaining at this stage:

• OF Ethan Conrad
• OF Max Belyeu
• OF Ethan Petry
• OF Korbyn Dickerson
• OF Charles Davalan

Out of the college options, I like Ethan Conrad the best as he can at least start developing in center field, even though the shoulder surgery scares me.

Max Belyeu (max EV: 112.6 MPH) and Ethan Petry (max EV: 113.4 MPH) have more power potential based on the exit velocity data from D1Baseball. Jacob Parker could be an option and might need to go over slot in buying out his Mississippi State commitment. 

For the later rounds, here are some of my favorite prospects that, if available, I would like the White Sox to target. 

• OF Gavin Turley, Oregon State
• RHP Jacob Morrison, Coastal Carolina
• RHP Chase Shores, LSU
• 2B Mitch Voit, Michigan
• OF Max Williams, Florida State
• RHP Zane Taylor, UNC-Wilmington
• C Easton Carmichael, Oklahoma
• SS Ethan Moore, Oak Park and River Forest High School (White Sox Area Code)
• 1B Jared Jones, LSU
• LHP Jared Spencer, Texas
• RHP Malachi Witherspoon, Oklahoma
• OF Nolan Schubart, Oklahoma State
• SS Mason White, Arizona
• RHP Gabe Davis, Oklahoma State
• OF Aaron Walton, Arizona
• C Matt Klein, Louisville
• RHP Christian Foutch, Arkansas