2025 Sox Machine staff predictions

None of us thought the 2024 Chicago White Sox were going to live in infamy by losing 121 games. Our worst case scenarios were not bad enough, although I was just four games shy. With a new manager and plenty of different faces joining the Opening Day 26-man roster do we expect a boost in wins? Or can this franchise to sink lower?

Jim Margalus

Best case scenario: With injuries destroying their depth early and another trade deadline spent selling, it feels like avoiding a third consecutive 100-loss season would be a major triumph. 63-99 should get Will Venable some down-ballot Manager of the Year votes.

How would that happen? Luis Robert Jr. goes off early, a handful of prospects show staying power at the end of the season, and the starting pitchers all sustain their touted improvements well enough to avoid double-digit losing streaks during the worst of times.

Worst-case scenario: Looking at last year's predictions, aside from Garrett Crochet avoiding Tommy John surgery, everybody more or less identified the characteristics of The Ghastliest Season, but nobody could quite conceptualize the resulting W-L total. If everybody overshot 41-121 by several wins while thinking the bottom could absolutely fall out, and all the early signs of bottomlessness (besides a healthy Robert) emerging in spring training, then I'm going to correct and say 30-132 this time around, with Will Venable's "leading through empathy" message turning into accusations of bullying at the end of the season. Do I actually believe they could lose 100 more games than they win? No, but they defied belief last year, so here we are.

White Sox record: 48-114, but not the worst record in baseball.

MLB Awards

MLB Postseason Predictions

World Series: Los Angeles Dodgers over Texas Rangers

James Fegan

Best Case Scenario: I like to have my fun imagining Lenyn Sosa sitting at an .830 OPS with 12 bombs as a regular second baseman at the All-Star break, and he's doffing his cap to the Truist Field crowd as a nation unites to ask "WHO?!!?" 

But the realistic best version of the Sox is led by Luis Robert Jr. looking as awesome at the plate as he did throughout spring. With him, a facsimile of 2024 Second Half Andrew Benintendi, Sosa thriving with a league-average chase rate, and maybe even a few weeks of being reunited with Brandon Drury, and the Sox have a template for who provides big hits on the nights they score runs. Some shorter but occasionally electric Shane Smith and Sean Burke outings alongside league-average innings-eating from Jonathan Cannon, Davis Martin and Martín Pérez provide middle-of-the-road rotation production, countered by a bullpen that is not good, but not league-worst thanks to better defense.

This dream-like vision of the Sox has them shocking the world with a 42-55 record at the break, and the front office dutifully responds by trading almost every veteran that helped get them there. Burke and Smith will see their innings tapered off for health, Martin actually pitches too well and gets dealt and it becomes clear that a torn-down version of the team will have to scrap to win 20 games in the second half. At this point, I will offer to my mother that it's more fun to watch Colson Montgomery and Kyle Teel get their feet wet even as the Sox are getting mollywhopped almost every night, and she curses me out for the first time in my life. 63-99.

Worst Case Scenario: Injuries. Robert is felled by his hip once more, turning Michael A. Taylor into the everyday center fielder. Cannon's spring struggles don't abate (despite him literally just telling me things went fine in his last outing) but a couple of spring muscle strains have the Sox dipping into starting depth that's been eviscerated by TJ. Can Nick Nastrini still start? It's a question worth asking, but maybe not in mid-April. Shortstop is an offensive black hole and neither Colson Montgomery nor Chase Meidroth hit the ground running Charlotte. Sox fans finally grow to appreciate Andrew Vaughn, but it's because him taking a pitch off the hand leads to a 70 wRC+ from that spot for the first month. 

The second half plays out similarly to the best-case scenario, but it hits differently since they only win 30 times before the All-Star Game. Robert is on the IL through the deadline and doesn't move, leading to an awkward vibe where the team hasn't fully turned the page toward a new core yet. Lenyn Sosa is one of the few young player bright spots, and even that is cold comfort because his long-term position and place on the roster is uncertain. 50-112. It's better but doesn't feel any better.

White Sox Record: Baseball is fundamentally unknowable. I have no idea how any of it will play out and neither do you. I have taken on a second job this spring and it's writing up prospects alongside Eric Longenhagen with FanGraphs. He has exposed me to extensive Trackman data across all of the minors and given me access to the tremendous video library that is Synergy. I love this process because I'm addicted to learning about baseball, it broadens my understanding and appreciation of the league as a whole and has already served to make our White Sox coverage here much more thoughtful and robust. It has left me with no clue as to what will happen this season, even as our work consciously tries to predict the future.

On Monday morning, I spent 10 minutes talking with Jonathan Cannon. It was just a check-in with a player I have covered extensively and spoken with repeatedly since he was drafted three years ago. Despite the great volume of pitches he throws, I know the purpose behind his entire arsenal, what each pitch looks like when it's working and when it's not. Moreover, he knows that I know this, and we speak frankly together about his gifts and his shortcomings, and what he does to emphasize the former and minimize the latter. I so deeply value having the chance to understand how a player as thoughtful and dutiful as Cannon approaches his craft. It enriches my life. I don't know if he's going to be Logan Webb 2.0 this year or be in Triple-A by June, and I think he's at least prepared to handle either result. Finding out which way it will go is our shared reason to show up to the park everyday. 59-103.

MLB Awards

MLB Postseason Predictions

World Series Prediction: Red Sox over Diamondbacks. Even one, just one big Seby Zavala playoff hit and I can die happy. 

Ted Mulvey

Best Case Scenario: Setting aside a win total of double-digits which starts with a “7” somehow, I think the best case scenario is that the White Sox organization proves it finally has a coherent, viable plan in place which develops both pitchers and hitters alike. Whether it’s via draft, trade, or otherwise, the players the White Sox bring into the organization show tangible evidence of improvement.

While I certainly hope that the major league product avoids setting a new low once again, it would be very encouraging to see –in particular– young White Sox hitters improve throughout the minor leagues and contribute positively at the MLB level. The pitching development seems to be trending in the right direction, so it would be terrific if the resources the White Sox have been implementing for hitting could follow.

Worst Case Scenario: A 21-141 record. Okay, that would definitely fall under “worst case” but realism was asked for instead of black humor. Worst case, however, might be some combination of a really poor record at the MLB level and a reverse of my best case scenario. The changes the organization has been making and touting all offseason fail to show any improvements and the product on the field stinks. Hitters don’t develop in the minors, players that are promoted are DOA and the pitching development takes a step back. 

White Sox Record: 58-104. A seventeen-win improvement, Will Venable for Manager of the Year! I don’t think I’m breaking any new ground here by positing that the White Sox were all of extremely bad, injured, and unlucky last year. In addition to some amount of positive regression taking place, I’ll be optimistic and say that some of the younger Sox hitters will get called up and actually contribute in a meaningful way. Pair that with the Bannister/Katz team getting more out of the pitching than projected alongside improved fundamentals in defensive positioning/baserunning, and 58 wins seems realistic.

MLB Awards

MLB Postseason Predictions

World Series Prediction: Atlanta Braves over Boston Red Sox

Josh Nelson

Best Case Scenario: Somehow, the random collection of veterans doesn’t drown as they are 15-29 heading into the series at Wrigley Field. Meanwhile, the Charlotte Knights and Birmingham Barons are beginning to stack wins. The daily Minor Keys get more attention than game recaps as top White Sox prospects produce at a rate that generates authentic optimism. 

Despite a 55-win pace, Luis Robert Jr. has found his old self. We spend the Road Trip weekend in Pittsburgh contemplating which team we want to see a trade for Robert. Before sitting in our seats on Saturday, July 19, Robert is a late scratch and is dealt for another haul of prospects. Chris Getz uses this trade to call up prospects who magically hit the ground running. Even though the home series are tough in late July and August, the young guns hold their own. With a 64-98 record, most of baseball will still point at the White Sox and laugh. But the 23-win improvement sparks excitement for 2026.

Worst Case Scenario: In the opening weekend at Birmingham, Jim Margalus watches Noah Schultz and Grant Taylor leave with arm injuries. It’s not until May that Getz tells James Fegan that both need an MRI despite a lengthy rest. The following week, Schultz and Taylor join the Tommy John group discount. Meanwhile, Luis Robert Jr. is batting .210 with a 32 percent strikeout rate while hitting just five home runs on June 30. We all wonder if Getz missed the opportunity to deal with his best remaining trade asset. 

It’s August, and we know definitively that Colson Montgomery is not a shortstop, Miguel Vargas is not much of a major leaguer, and development stalls on all levels. After the final pitch in Washington, the White Sox finished 35-127. To make matters worse, Justin Ishbia changes his mind again and buys the Minnesota Twins for $1.7 billion.

White Sox Record: 50-112. I am buying what Ethan Katz is selling about the starting pitching staff. They’ll beat expectations, and the bullpen is not a complete dumpster fire. But I hate this offense. I’m not seeing the vision, and I pray we’ll see more modern-day results in the minors. The White Sox only scored 507 runs last year, and I have the under on 555.5 total runs in 2025 for the annual Steak Dinner bet. It’s only a nine-win improvement because the White Sox don’t have enough league-average hitters to be better.

MLB Awards

MLB Postseason Predictions

World Series Prediction: New York Mets over Boston Red Sox.