First White Sox prospect list for 2025 shows plenty of arms, dearth of bats
There aren’t many luxuries to being an outlet that only covers the White Sox, but flexible deadlines on matters such as prospect lists are one that we indulge.
Baseball America, on the other hand, covers all 30 farm systems, and in order to generate the steady flow of content that rewards their subscriber base, they’re going to publish their top-10 prospect lists in some order spanning weeks, accepting the risk that it won’t resemble the organization’s talent by the end of the winter.
It just so happens that BA published its top 10 White Sox prospect list by Bill Mitchell on Wednesday, a particularly perilous time considering a Garrett Crochet trade runs the risk of upending the work in short order.
If nothing else, the list provides a snapshot of one plausible ranking of the organization’s talent before any influx, and the result is one that’s exceptionally heavy with pitchers:
- Noah Schultz
- Colson Montgomery
- Hagen Smith
- Edgar Quero
- Drew Thorpe
- Jairo Iriarte
- Grant Taylor
- Caleb Bonemer
- Ky Bush
- Mason Adams
The list feels fairly sturdy through seven, as Thorpe, Iriarte and Taylor feel like they could occupy those three spots in any order. After that, the possibilities expand dramatically, and while that’s not entirely a bad thing, it’s also not what you want after consecutive 100-loss seasons, especially since Jonathan Cannon and Dominic Fletcher were the only prospects of note to shed their eligibility.
That’s how you end up with a projected 2028 lineup that doesn’t really project in any material sense:
Since the White Sox went through this process not that long ago, it’s not hard to remember what a budding prospect list should feel like. For instance, here’s Baseball America’s White Sox list before the 2018 season:
- Eloy Jiménez
- Michael Kopech
- Alec Hansen
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Dane Dunning
- Zack Collins
- Jake Burger
- Blake Rutherford
- Gavin Sheets
- Dylan Cease
They didn’t quite go 10-for-10 here, because Hansen turned into a tragedy, Collins didn’t stick and Rutherford barely received a cup of coffee. Still, the seven other guys have had decent MLB careers, and this is the year after the White Sox graduated Yoán Moncada, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López, along with having the fourth-overall pick the following June. While the 2018 White Sox went on to lose 100 games, the Sox had amassed enough talent that BA’s projected 2021 lineup came pretty close to the real thing, given that it couldn’t forecast free agent signings or draft picks:
| Projected | 2021 | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Collins | C | Yasmani Grandal |
| Gavin Sheets | 1B | José Abreu |
| Yoán Moncada | 2B | Nick Madrigal |
| Jake Burger | 3B | Yoán Moncada |
| Tim Anderson | SS | Tim Anderson |
| Eloy Jiménez | LF | Eloy Jiménez |
| Luis Robert Jr. | CF | Luis Robert Jr. |
| Avisaíl García | RF | Adam Eaton |
| José Abreu | DH | Andrew Vaughn |
Even most of the “misses” contributed in one form or another: Collins as the backup catcher, Sheets and Burger as productive DH stopgaps. García ended up getting non-tendered by the White Sox, but he ended up getting the last laugh in the form of a four-year, $53 million contract that the Marlins have already bailed on.
Going back to the current picture, readers who compartmentalize well can take solace in the pitching depth, because any list that has Taylor as the fifth-best arm is by default in excellent shape. When the major-league product is so dreadful, however, the minor-league system should be appreciated on the whole, rather than in parts, and the White Sox are nowhere close in that regard. The hope is that if and when the White Sox trade Crochet, the return will include at least one bat that eliminates Bonemer’s claim to being the system’s third-best position-player prospect before he even participates in one recorded professional game.
When the games start counting again, graduating players who stand a puncher’s chance at becoming average MLB fixtures is the next task in line.
Author
Might be time to start looking at quality free agents. Significant help on offense is not likely to come from the minors. It’s interesting that even Oakland is giving a guy like Severino a three-year deal worth more than $20 million annually. If the cash-strapped Athletics can shell out that amount for a pitcher who had a 6.65 ERA as recently as 2023, then we should be able to afford signing a decent hitter or two or three.
Or, we should at least be able to work out an extension with Crochet. Tear up his existing deal and offer him five years and $120 million? Or six years and $150 million?
They should be calling the A’s every day offering Benintendi. Like wise they should be calling all the other teams with a overpaid veteran and try to buy a prospect.
The A’ probably would take Benintendi if the Sox throw in one of their top 7 prospects. That contract isn’t moving without offsetting the negative value
The only legit reason to move Beni would be to free up money to spend on something better which won’t happen. The Sox payroll should already be at parity or below what they get from MLB (correct me if I’m wrong) so I’m not favor of a move that simply generates profit that won’t go back into the team. It would be better to keep him and hope his late season hot streak continues in which case they can maybe move him not at a loss this season
The Sox have been challenged! Will JR rise to the occasion?
5/120 is high on Crochet, considering arb figures to pay him around $9M for the next two years combined. That means 3/$111, or $37M AAV in new money. Much as I like Crochet and expensive as starting pitching has become, he’s had just one full season as a starter and even that ended on an innings limit. 5/$90 sounds closer, which is $27M/yr new money. That accounts for the injury risk.
I would much rather have Crochet than Severino.
If Severino can get a little more than $22 million per year, then I don’t see the harm in giving Crochet $24 million annually.
I also would prefer offering Crochet 5/$90 or 5/$100, and I have proposed this during the past few months. But I don’t think he would accept it, especially with this Severino contract coming out of nowhere. Maybe he would take 5/$120. It would be nice to keep somebody who can be a dominant starting pitcher.
This is the only smart play with Crochet. There is zero reason for him to sign an under market deal. If he replicates his 24 season for 25 and 26, his value is easily over $30mil per season with 5 yrs min commitment. The Crochet team is betting that he will make $22-25 mil avg per season over the next 7 years provided he stays on his 2024 trajectory. The current 30 yr old stiffs getting close to $25mil per year only reinforce their argument.
The right play is to pay him market value for 25 & 26 so you get a break for the 27-29 seasons. Everyone wins: Crochet gets generational wealth guaranteed with another big payday looming around his 30th bday, and the Sox get the flagship player they need for the next playoff run starting in 2027.
No one has ever done what Crochet did in 2024. He wasn’t drafted as a starter, rushed to the bigs right away as a relief pitcher, then contracted tommy john syndrome. Same path in post TJ, rushed to the majors to man relief innings. He pitched 150 ip in the major leagues with zero development and mostly dominated, the man is a super human. Pay him now, there is no way to reclaim his value in a trade.
“there is no way to reclaim his value in a trade.”
I disagree with this. Value isn’t just determined by output, but also by cost for that output. Ohtani is possibly the best ballplayer ever, but would any team sign him if he demanded $300M/yr with no deferrals? No, because he’s not worth that much.
With Crochet, you get extreme value for the next two years (assuming health and no dropoff in performance), but if you’re paying market rate after that, surplus value is a little lower. With the ever-present, and higher in his specific case, risk of injury, it probably works out to almost no excess value after the first two years if you sign him to market rate.
Which means the trade only has to really recoup his excess value over the next two years. It’s not easy and certainly comes with its own risk if prospects are involved, but it can be done. It’s not a situation like if the Pirates were to try to trade Paul Skenes now. On that, I’d agree; you can’t just get back all that excess value. With Crochet, I feel you can.
To bring math into it, he had an fWAR of 4.7 this year in 146 IP, a rate of 0.032/IP, which works out to ~5.8 if we assume 180 innings. That’s 11.6 over the next two years * $8M/WAR = 92.8M – $9M assumed arb salaries = $83.8M excess value. That doesn’t include the risk or lack of track record, which should probably bring the number down a little. You can make this up with a few top 100 prospects.
Perhaps more to the point, I don’t see a scenario in which Jerry signs Crochet, much as most of us, myself included, would love it. So the question is whether you’d rather have 3 top 100 prospects for all 6 years each or 2 years of Crochet? For me, I’ll easily take the former.
Considering the AAV of the new money, I’m pretty sure he would, since I doubt he’d get that much on the open market. If Severino pushed his market higher, I think it’s to 5/$100. Teams signing players to market-value extensions early seems unwise to me. The team is taking on significant risk, with that risk should come the potential of a reward. Giving Crochet 3/$91M in new money already seems high given his short track record an injury history. Very well worth it if he goes full seasons and keeps pitching like he did, but an undeniable risk exists that he won’t.
It’s super interesting that the rumor about the A’s adding payroll were true. Supposedly they want to get to the $100M mark.
If that is the case, the Sox have a legit chance to have the lowest payroll in MLB. And they operate in a non-revenue sharing market. If that happens, it really is laughable in the tragic funny kind of way.
Sure, Oakland paid a premium to get him to pitch in that 100 F in the Summer minor league ballpark.
What’s Jerry’s excuse? Nobody is saying Getz isn’t doing important work by trying to rebuild the entire baseball operations structure. That said, that also should not mean the Sox shouldn’t simultaneously try to vastly improve the worst team in the history of The MLB.
$44.6M in new acquisitions entering the Winter Meetings since he hired Getz, not much more expected per Getz’s comments. Fedde the only player who contributed much of anything, and he was quickly dumped with Kopech and Pham.
Does not compute with what Jerry said on August 31, 2023:
“One of the things I owe the fans is to get better as fast as we can possibly get better”
“Speed is of the essence. I don’t want this to be a long-term proposition.”
“I would hope — and I expect — that next year is going to be a lot better than this year. How much better? I don’t know.”
“The conclusion I came to is we owe our fans and ourselves not to waste any time,” he said. “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can. If I went outside, it would have taken anybody at least a year to evaluate the organization. I could have brought Branch Rickey back. It would have taken him a year to evaluate the organization.”
2024 (Spotrac) -2025 (Cot’s Estimates) White Sox Player Acquisitions >= $1.0M:
Amount paid / estimated to be paid, by the White Sox (White Sox bWAR)
2024 (12 Players, $33.8M Net Spent, 4.8 bWAR)
$5.0M John Brebbia Released in August (-0.6)
$5.0M Erick Fedde Traded in July (4.7)
$4.3M Nicky Lopez (0.2)
$4.3M Martin Maldonado Released in July (-1.3)
$3.3M Andrew Vaughn (0.2)
$3.0M Michael Soroka (0.6)
$2.0M Michael Kopech Traded in July (0.3)
$1.8M Chris Flexen (1.6)
$1.5M Dominic Leone (-0.7)
$1.4M Tim Hill Released in June (-0.4)
$1.2M Paul DeJong Traded in July (0.2)
$1.0M Kevin Pillar Released in April (0.0)
2025 (To Date 3 Players, $10.8M less reductions for 2025 trades, bWAR TBD)
$6.0M Andrew Vaughn Arbitration Estimate
$3.0M Garrett Crochet Arbitration Estimate
$1.8M Austin Slater Free Agent Contract
A little surprised to see Adams over Wolkow at #10.
After the 7th spot it’s pretty much pick names out of a hat.
Even so, it’s weird to see Bonemer (HS draft pick) over Wolkow who at the same (or younger?) age has actually shown the ability to not be overmatched in A ball. I get that Wolkow’s profile shows huge risk but I’d weight actual game play over projecting Bonemer. But maybe it’s a good sign for the org that someone likes him over Wolkow?
There’s really nothing to read into.
It isn’t a sign of anything except the Sox having a huge talent drop after #7. I’m sure we’ll be seeing a lot of different names 8-12 in upcoming revisions. Because that FV level is just interchangeable org depth.
Agreed on the risk and the upside for Wolkow. I have a tendency to be optimistic when not discussing what Jerry and the FO will do, so I believe he’ll end up cutting that K-rate. If he does, he’ll probably be the better player, but maybe BA just likes guys with a less glaring weakness than Wolkow’s k-rate. Regardless, way too early to tell for certain on either guy.
Which is why it’s odd not to see Wolkow. Once you get past that top tier of good prospects (top ~7), Wolkow seems to be the only one with all-star upside and (I’m guessing) the most likely to crack a top 100 list next year.
Even only from perception or reputation standpoint: BA doesn’t really get extra points if Mason Adams really hits and becomes a 2 win pitcher. But they look like dummies if Wolkow hits and they’re the only ones who don’t have them in the top 10 (we’ll see what FG does with him).
“if Wolkow hits” being the operative phrase. Considering his huge K-rate in high A, that’s still to be determined. I have a lot of hope he can bring it down, hopefully at least to the mid-20’s. We all saw his extraordinary BABIP, so when he hits, good things tend to happen. It’s just about making contact and good swing decisions. Unfortunately, those are really big if’s for him right now.
Well of course it’s “still to be determined.” My point is his upside is unlike anything in the Sox system outside of the top 7. On that alone, I would think he would get a top 10 nod.
Which is more profitable, a 20% chance at $1,000 or a 50% chance at $500? Not arguing whether Wolkow has the higher ceiling, just that maybe the scouts think he has less chance to reach it.
I mean, you can just tweak those numbers so easily. Wolkow’s upside is definitely more than 100% more valuable than Adams’ upside.
I’d say it’s more like a 10% chance at $10,000 or a 60% of $500.
In any case, we’ve only been talking about upside, but other outcomes (like Joey Gallo, instead of Aaron Judge) are likely more valuable than Adams will be.
Long way to go.
Sure, but at least it’s hard for the team to get much worse. And the farm has enough pitching talent. I’m hopeful the Sox can get some much needed hitting talent when they deal Crochet. Power would be nice, but even guys who can work counts, take walks, move the runner over, and get on base at a good clip would represent a huge improvement.
Are you being literal when you say they have enough pitching talent? As in, do you believe if they stopped drafting, signing on the international market and acquiring pitching prospects via trade for 2 years, they wouldn’t need to invest heavily in FA pitchers in ’27 and ’28?
Schultz, Smith, and some combo of Taylor, Iriarte, Thorpe, Cannon, Adams, Bush, Burke, Martin, and Nastrini as the rotation, with AHT, Leasure, Pallette, and Ellard in the pen, along with whomever doesn’t make the rotation, yes, I think the pitching is good enough to be above average. Sure needs a hell of a lot less work than the position player side. As for investing heavily, we both know Jerry’s unlikely to do that anyway.
Let’s have some fun:
Post your ideal (reasonably fair) Crochet trade. In other words, he’s not returning Holliday, Mayo, and Basallo from the O’s, but Mayo, Honeycutt, and Beavers might work for both sides.
Mine:
Cubs get Crochet
Sox get Shaw, Alcantara, and Rojas, #’s 22, 67, and 100 on MLB.com’s latest list. Sox get their 2B of the future in Shaw, and two upside players in Alcantara and Rojas. Alcantara especially has a high ceiling.
Red Sox get Crochet
White Sox get Braden Montgomery (OF) #54 MLB, Yoeilin Cespedes(2B), Miguel Bleis(OF)
I just don’t see any team giving up a top 50 position prospect for Crochet. This deal lets Boston keep their top 4 prospects and the White Sox get a top 100 OF and Cespedes is probably top 150
I see that return as a bit light. I know that valuation of prospects has changed, but it wasn’t eons ago that the Cubs gave up more than my proposal for Quintana, who was durable and very good, but not an ace. The Sox got something fairly close to your package for Cease, but baseball has a recency bias and Crochet’s 2024 was better than Cease’s 2023. It was even better than Cease’s 2022 banner year in fWAR (4.7 vs 4.4, despite 38 fewer innings), FIP, K/9, and BB/9. Less track record, higher injury risk, but also a higher ceiling.
It comes down to needs and perhaps a touch of desperation. It might end up helping the White Sox that the Red Sox and O’s seem to be asking after him and are in the same division. Might lead to a slightly increased bid just to keep him from the other team.
Montgomery would be a good get, though, especially if they can get him to cut his chase rate and make enough quality contact. Cannon of an arm would help with that RF defense.
That’s very similar to an early mockup I had with the BoSox. I’ve since gone to Justin Campbell and Braden Montgomery even if we needed to add something to it to make it happen.
How have we survived without the Alec Hansen pics?
Game face 10/10. Too bad he never made it.
Holy hell!
Sox , Cubs, Mariners discussing three team trade
https://x.com/jacobzanolla/status/1864759211827003791
I heard a different three-teamer was getting kicked around yesterday
Have details? Or is the Phillies trading Bohm to the Mariners and both teams giving the Sox prospects rumor?
Too bad he doesn’t mention which prospects from the M’s are being discussed. They have the position players to make it happen.
Cole Young, Dawel Joseph, and Kevin Alcantara to the Sox
Nico Hoerner, Juan Carela, and Cub Prospect to the M’s
Garrett Crochet to the Cubs
That seems about right.
I don’t know, it’s not horrible. It depends what kind of offers they’re getting.
Here’s another option.
Cole Young, Dawel Joseph, Kevin Alcantara and Fernando Cruz to the Sox
Nico Hoerner, Cody Bellinger, and $10 mil from Sox to the M’s
Garrett Crochet and M’s prospect to the Cubs
Sox are paying $10 mil for Cruz and to facilitate the trade
M’s get the right side of their IF
Cubs get Crochet, lose the Bellinger contract, and save $40 mil.
Cubs and D-backs talking swap of Bellinger and Jordan Montgomery. That just makes too much sense for it not to happen. That’s 2 more trading partners gone.
I beginning to get the feeling that trading Crochet is going to go down worse than the Fedde trade and take longer than the Cease trade.
Just not a big fan on more than 3 year contracts for pitchers. If we’re relying Crochet to be here when the Sox finally get good again, it’s very possible, he won’t be the Crochet that has had a very good half year in his career. As much as I would like to see Crochet keep that half year success going, his injury risk is just as high as his potential. We need to trade him now to take advantage of his worth. Again, he won’t be here when the Sox are good again.
Crochet may not be in this class, but we see cases where the elite pitchers bounce back – Verlander, Sale types. In some cases, a team may be better off giving a long contract with the expectation the good times will outweigh the bad times.
JR is that you?
White Sox hitters… dearth by a thousand cuts.
I’ll show myself out.
Wonder where they would rank Jacob Gonzalez, It hurts when you spend the 15th pick on an suppose “safe” big program college bat and he cant crack a weak back half of your top ten list….
Jim Callis has his new top 100 draft prospects out if anyone wants to start scouting the sox 10th or worse pick for next year.
My early favorites:#13 on the list Luke Stevenson a lefty hitting catcher from UNC who is good with the glove and the bat and #11 Elli Willits a young prep switch hitting shortstop who has pretty good baseball lineage
Bill Mitchell went a little more in-depth in the BA White Sox Top 10 Chat, which is free to read without an subscription. FWIW, Mitchell says some positive reports on Jacob Gonzalez think he’ll be one of those “ballplayers” who “will exceed the sum of his parts.” That’s probably what we’re hoping for at this point.
A few other guys that Mitchell gave generally positive reports on: Bergolla, Albertus, Sean Burke, and recent draftees Blake Larsen and Pierce George. Jake Eder…not so much.
And then there’s this on Noah Shultz:
I mean I kind of read that as scrappy twtw player at the AA level… not exactly what I wanted out of the 15th pick in the draft and not someone I think is going to be a solid regular at this point but hopefully he grinds his way….
Yes. To be clear, it’s not a good thing. Crossing your fingers that a recent first round pick becomes a plucky 2 win “ballplayer” is not what you want.
Getting a 2 WAR ballplayer isn’t the dream but it’s still a win
Someone in FG chat just said the asking price for Crochet is Shaw, Ballesteros and Triantos.
That’s obviously a haul…essentially 3 top 50 prospects. Seems like the opening unrealistic demand in negotiations.
The likely positions seem like a weird choice in terms of an ask. Shaw is probably best at 2B but has been playing 3B (but you have to wonder if his bat plays as well at 3B). Triantos is a 2B that supposedly will probably shift to corner OF. And Ballesteros bat looks phenomenal but if he can’t (and probably won’t?) stick at C he’s a DH.
It still would be a great return. Shaw at 2B would be great. I guess I’d rather have Alcantara than Triantos or Ballesteros just from positional need.
But you’d much rather have Ballesteros AND Triantos than just Alcantara, right?
Yeah, but mostly for the bat of Ballesteros. Obviously scouts know more than me but what I’ve read about Triantos makes him sound like a fringy 2B that can hit but not a lot of power and moving that bat to an OF corner doesn’t seem appealing. And the best outcome, sticking at 2B, overlaps with Shaw’s best position.
Triantos is a fine prospect, but if the Sox are going to ask for crazy things I’d like one of those things to be a legit OF prospect.
The Sox have some prospects that may be able to fill spots in the infield at 1 or 2 WAR levels (Montgomery, Ramos, Baldwin, Sosa, Gonzalez). I don’t see any similar hope in the OF at virtually any level of the minor league system.
This. It’s so glaring it’s blinding.
I would be Alcantara over Triantos too.
I’d rather have an arm or a lottery ticket than Ballesteros.
Yeah…actually just saw that Longenhagen was kind of down on him in the chat:
If the bat is actually questionable ath major level (his minor league numbers are pretty great), then I really might prefer Alcantara (or Caissie?) to Triantos and Ballesteros together
Oof, that feels was too heavy. But interestingly enough, Longenhagen said he would trade those three for Crochet if he were the Cubs.
Another interesting note from the chat: Longenhagen said of Grant Taylor, “I’m in, he’ll be a top 100 guy.”
Rays sign Danny Jansen for $8 mil. Things are getting real thin at C
It’s thinning out for most teams, but we’re shopping in the “that guy got a guaranteed deal?!” bin. It’s always pretty full.
Even that is bare, you could dumpster dive for a Carson Kelly last year. This year he’ll probably get $6 mil with an option for a second year.