The White Sox have until 5 p.m. CT today to add Rule 5 draft-eligible prospects to the 40-man roster. For those who struggle with the stress of deadlines, the circumstances that led the Sox to use a record 63 players over the course of the 2024 season already took care of a couple players who entered the season as candidates for greater debate at this time of year.
Fraser Ellard and Sean Burke would've been Rule 5-eligible, having both been drafted out of college in 2021, but Ellard got the call after the White Sox's trade deadline activity depleted the bullpen in late July. The White Sox seemed to plan on Burke's status remaining a question into the offseason, because he was on the initial Arizona Fall League roster, but he put it together in time to get a September call-up, which he parlayed into strong consideration for the Opening Day rotation.
When looking at the remaining pool of potentially protected players -- by and large high school draft picks and international players who signed in or before 2020, or college players drafted in 2021 -- there's only one lock left. That's just as well, because although the White Sox have four open spots on the 40-man roster, they have to give one of them to Austin Slater and figure to use another on the first overall pick in the Rule 5 draft on Dec. 11.
Now, who are those White Sox prospects in limbo?
The lock
Colson Montgomery: Because he was 19 when the White Sox drafted him with the 22nd overall pick in 2021, he requires protection a year earlier than the bulk of his fellow prep picks in his class. The Sox probably would've loved to have him on the 40-man by now, but his regular season performance didn't warrant it, so November it is. The missing year will only complicate matters if he fails to stick in any of the next three seasons, but if Montgomery's status is in question by the time he turns 26, the Sox will probably have far bigger concerns.
Starters
Juan Carela: Carela has topped 100 innings in three consecutive seasons, including 106⅔ innings of 3.71 ERA pitching between Winston-Salem and Birmingham in 2024. He made his Double-A debut a week into August and held his own over seven starts, but there isn't anything about his arsenal that projects as immediately MLB-caliber. There is a little bit of mystery, in the sense that he's started 72 of the 75 games he's pitched above rookie ball. A team might consider selecting Carela if they thought his fastball-sweeper combination would play up in short bursts, but they'd be drafting that profile sight unseen.
Wilfred Veras: Veras spent the entire 2024 season in Birmingham, where a late surge -- .310/.389/.474 over the last two months -- lifted his overall performance from "disappointing" to "decent." That said, he's a right-handed corner outfielder with reverse splits and 148 strikeouts over 132 games, so there isn't an easy way for an MLB team to effectively use him in even a part-time role.
DJ Gladney: Take the concerns about Veras' profile and apply them here, with minor differences (Gladney's fast enough to stretch into center field, but he strikes out considerably more). The White Sox gave him a look in the Arizona Fall League, but he hit .196/.250/.250 with 19 strikeouts in 60 plate appearances, so plenty of work remains.
Terrell Tatum: The 2023 version of Tatum could've been a threat for selection if he were able to replicate his performance, what with him being left-handed, drawing 100 walks, stealing 47 bases and covering all three outfield positions. The actual 2024 version of Tatum hit .219/.317/.302 while striking out 130 times over 495 plate appearances in Birmingham, and was only successful on 30 of 38 stolen-base attempts.
Relievers
Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa: The pride of Maui finds himself in a familiar position, looking to see if he'll be added to a 40-man roster after respectable showings in both the regular season and the Arizona Fall League, but he's two steps closer to the majors this time around. He opened the season with 37 strong innings at Double-A between Frisco and Birmingham before and after the Robbie Grossman trade, but finished the season getting roughed up in Charlotte to the tune of a 13.50 ERA over 8⅔ innings.
His changeup has improved to the point that he had better results against lefties than righties in 2024, and his slider got some whiffs in Triple-A, but Statcast had his fastball at 93-94 and absorbing the brunt of the damage there. It's not hard to imagine him eventually finding a working version of a three-pitch mix in the front end of a MLB bullpen at some point, a la Matt Foster. The question is whether every team has their own version of Hoopii-Tuionetoa, albeit with names that fit easier on the back of a jersey.
Trey McGough: McGough is here to console Hoopii-Tuionetoa by saying that success in Charlotte wouldn't have guaranteed anything. It's hard to imagine what more McGough could've done in terms of performance, as he posted a 1.98 ERA over 81⅔ innings, most of them coming at Triple-A. He fared well at Norfolk before the White Sox acquired him for Eloy Jiménez just before the deadline, and then he pitched even better for Charlotte, striking out 33 against just 29 baserunners over 27⅓ innings. It wasn't exactly in short bursts, either, because his appearances routinely stretched out into a third inning of work.
His low-90s fastball/low-80s slider combination limited lefties to a .207 slugging percentage in 2024, but righties didn't fare much better (.193/.271/.283). Perhaps he won't be able to back-foot his slider with such regularity to MLB hitters, but any encore should probably provide him the chance to finally try it.
Adisyn Coffey: Another Charlotte success story, Coffey was the first Barons reliever to be promoted out of the warm, comforting Birmingham bubble in 2024. It took him about a month to dial in his control at Triple-A, but he finished the season with a 1.25 ERA and 27 strikeouts against six walks over his final 22 appearances. Statcast has his fastball at 94-95, and a cutter around 87, and he throws each about half the time. He benefited from regimented usage that might be tougher to ensure under the pressures of an MLB schedule, but if the White Sox protected him on Tuesday -- or if another team selected him in December -- this would be the reason why.
Andrew Dalquist: Dalquist enjoyed his most sustained professional success after moving to the Birmingham bullpen for the 2024 season, posting a 3.06 ERA over 38 appearances and 47 innings. His strike-throwing improved over the course of the season, although it mostly served the purpose of softening the effects of regression, because he survived on a whole lot of good fortune in the first half:
- April-June: 2.55 ERA, 16.8% BB, 22.8% K, .203 BABIP
- July-Sept.: 3.63 ERA, 10.1% BB, 29.3% K, .386 BABIP
His wildly down-and-up AFL showcase also featured more walks than advised.
Gil Luna: He's lefty, he posted a 2.80 ERA at Birmingham and his pickoff is lethal. He's just had plenty of occasion to use his move because he's walked 87 batters over 84⅔ innings at Double-A the last two seasons.
Jared Kelley: He's purely an org arm at this point, as he was demoted to Winston-Salem in May and spent the rest of the season there despite spring efforts to restore his natural arm slot. Coffey was selected a round after him in 2020 as an under-slot signing to make room for Kelley's $3 million bonus, but life is funny like that.
