The first half of this list included the names you didn't necessarily want to see so early in the season, if ever. Now, as we greet an Opening Day that's more promising than most others, let's talk about the guys you don't mind counting on.
- No. 20: Adam Engel
Eloy Jiménez's injury elevates Engel a lot, while Engel's own season-opening hamstring strain knocks him down a little. Ideally, Engel will still be reserved for appearances against left-handed starters, because his plate discipline numbers against righties suggests he still isn't cut out for everyday life. It feels like Rick Renteria left a gift by showing how Engel is supposed to be used, and it'd be rude to ignore it.
- No. 19: Michael Kopech
On one hand, it seems like he should be lower than Garrett Crochet, since Crochet already has his feet wet with relief work, and could face more of the high-leverage situations that decide games. But I think Kopech is probably the most realistic candidate for a rotation solution during the second half of the season, assuming he stays healthy and the White Sox commit to stretching him out against MLB competition. Even if his leverage index lags behind the bulk of the bullpen, he stands a good shot at picking up the other kind of important innings.
- No. 18: Codi Heuer
Last year's revelation won't be able to surprise anybody this year, but good thing he throws a high-90s sinker and a wipeout slider. He can be even more dangerous if he figures out how to shape that slider in various counts, but he's plenty good as is.
- No. 17: Leury García
With Engel out, García's the primary backup at all three outfield spots, as well as second base and shortstop. If he stays that way the entire season, it'll be great. If he elevates to an everyday starter in a corner spot, it'll be a relapse of 2019, except with an even higher offensive bar to clear.
- No. 16: Andrew Vaughn
If all goes well, he could barge into the top 10, because his finished form comprises a batting eye that only Yasmani Grandal and Zack Collins can match, except without either colleague's strikeout problem. But the lack of experience above High-A and the demands of a new position are enough to regulate my enthusiasm for now. He should be allowed to struggle.
- No. 15: Eloy Jiménez
Before his injury, he would've ranked anywhere from first to third, because he was in position to deliver the bigger impact of any White Sox bat. A relatively smooth recovery puts him on track to return during the second half of the season, and even if he's not quite 100 percent in the immediate aftermath of rehabilitation from his ruptured pectoral tendon, the White Sox still need any and all depth that has even the faintest chance of making a measurable impact.
- No. 14: Nick Madrigal
If you believe in Madrigal's ability to hit singles and the occasional double at an enjoyable clip, and I do, then his value largely hinges on the other things he couldn't quite master in 2020. From the few difficult chances he's handled in the spring, he looks less frazzled in the field on plays that test his capacity to fire off complicated motions in rapid succession. He might not be Yolmer Sánchez's Gold Glove kind of good, but I think he can come close. I'm guessing the too-aggressive baserunning is going to take longer to smooth out, because I don't think a high-motor guy like him can gear down that easily.
- No. 13: Carlos Rodón
I can buy the improved arsenal -- the improved fastball command that makes his slider less of a pitch to cling to, and now this curveball that he can throw 10 percent of the time. I still can't buy him staying healthy long enough to deliver triple-digit innings. I can't let him hurt me again.
- No. 12: Adam Eaton
Were Jiménez healthy, Eaton would probably drop five or so spots thanks to multiple right-handed caddies and the general awareness that Rick Hahn gets what he pays for. But with Jiménez out, it's a lot more important that Eaton stays healthy, and shows an ability to handle both righties and lefties, even if not to his previous standards.
- No. 11: Aaron Bummer
Replacing Alex Colomé with Liam Hendriks makes it a little less vital that Bummer regains his ability to dominate over the course of a full season, especially with Garrett Crochet backing him up on the left side. Still, the idea of regularly replicating the Royals when it comes to late-inning success in big games involves Bummer to a heavy degree.
- No. 10: Dylan Cease
Cease is still going to have starts where he walks five guys over five innings, because smoothing out all the things that throw him off course is a tall order for any pitching coach. Two things will help: 1) He'll strike out seven over those five innings, and 2) he'll have other starts where he overpowers the opposition. That's terrific as a No. 4 starter, and one who might be actually able to soften the blow if one of the top three starters misses time.
- No. 9: Luis Robert
2021 strikes me as a consolidation year for Robert, featuring the hot-and-cold runs of his rookie season as two new divisions test his ability to lay off pitches out of the zone. The highs should be exciting as hell, though.
- No. 8: Liam Hendriks
Given that the White Sox invested more money at closer over the winter than multiple other positions of far greater need, they kinda need Hendriks to deliver, especially since an efficient bullpen can paper over roster issues elsewhere. If he meets the hype, he'll maintain the White Sox's excellence of holding late leads over the last two years, except with even more leads.
- No. 7: Dallas Keuchel
He's only made 27 starts in one of the last five seasons. Even if two of those seasons were due to circumstances beyond his control -- a frozen free agent market and the pandemic -- the back spasms he suffered last year caught everybody up on Keuchel's mild durability issues. It's not like he's Rodón in this department, but he's also well short of a workhorse. That's why he doesn't generate as much hype as a guy who delivered a 1.99 ERA last season, and why the Sox went out and acquired Lance Lynn.
- No. 6: Tim Anderson
He's the face of what the White Sox are doing, supported by a brand of baseball few can pull off: a bat-first shortstop who refuses to walk, with defensive metrics that vary greatly. I'd call him a tick below average due to the shortage of tough plays made, but I'd say there's no need to quantify his value to the tenth of whatever number you're using. When it comes to Anderson delivering what the team needs, you'll know it if you see it.
- No. 5: José Abreu
Everybody expected Abreu to sustain his graceful decline in 2020, and instead he went out and won the damn MVP. The question is, with Jiménez out for months and Eaton being the biggest addition to the lineup, is whether the White Sox are a little too reliant on him being able to summon that kind of season again.
- No. 4: Lance Lynn
He just needs to provide innings. OK, that's not quite true, because Jeff Samardzija provided innings. Lynn just needs to provide innings in such a fashion that nobody raises Samardzija comparisons, unless they're highly favorable. The Shark Cage is out. Get in the Lynn Bin!
- No. 3: Yasmani Grandal
Grandal was at the top of my list last year, and he still has an argument for No. 1, especially with James McCann heading to New York. I'd say: He's a year older, the pitcher above him has raised his own expectations enormously, and he won't be the one primarily expected to pick up the offensive burden left by Jiménez.
- No. 2: Yoán Moncada
A peek behind the curtain: I had him as the top player on this list until I started writing the paragraph for the one player remaining. Moncada's brand of power, patience and defense make him the team's best bet for MVP-type production. His previous year's battle with COVID-19 just introduces enough uncertainty for a grace period. Here's hoping he can fold last year's increased walk rate and improved defense into what he did in 2019. You'd want for nothing.
- No. 1: Lucas Giolito
ZiPS projects him as the best pitcher in baseball. The odds are putting him on the Cy Young podium. The time is now. Science can wait no longer. Children are our future. Tonight is the first of many measuring-stick games where everybody will want the ball in Giolito's hand. Here's where we can take a lesson from the Cleveland teams of recent vintage: If he can deliver for the majority of his 30 starts, incomplete lineups are barely going to register for a sizable fraction of the season.
(Photo by Nick Wosika/Icon Sportswire)
